This is the worst bust I have ever experienced by far

[real]

It also seems we all were too quick to dismiss the oft-derided clown maps.  Nearly all the maps, showed almost no snow in DC proper, and even suggested areas like Frederick would struggle to get accumulation.  Everyone largely just dismissed them, perhaps for good reasons but they also may have been another sign.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

this was the best bust i have ever experienced by far

[ThreeRedheads]

I agree, Matt.  Huge disappointment.

[Bob Chill]

Someone should have set up a time lapse and recorded the very special occurrence of decreasing accums during hours of mod snow. That would have been a sight to behold.

[ravensrule]

this was the best bust i have ever experienced by far

You are not allowed in here.

[brettjrob]

Seems a bit blasphemous to invoke 3/5/01 for DC proper? It never looked like 12"+ was seriously on the table east of I-95 and north of EZF this time, from what I saw. Still devastating, of course, and the running drought in this case is 2+ years rather than just 14 months.

 

I'm no longer even a big snow weenie, and yet the sting from 2001 is still so incredibly palpable 12 years later. Easily the most traumatic weather bust of my life.

[Amped]

I'd say models did fine with Surface temps, Precip Amounts and track. I think it was the PTYPE algorithms that showed 8+" with surface temps in the mid 30s that failed us.   The GGEM/RGEM handled it the best. It was the only model to show a changeover sweeping from NE to SW. I don't know if this was due to the model, or the Ptype algorithm?

 

 

 

Oh and how the f*** did Baltimore get 20 on March 28-29 1942?   That storm has to be a made up weenie fairy tail.

[Bob Chill]

Forecasting a 2"+ storm in dc during met winter is a little risky. Forecasting a 12+" storm in March is riskier than eating medium rare chicken.

[MarchStorm2013]

carroll county actually got 5 inches of heavy snow over night so i can't really say this busted for my area. just low end of expectations.

[midatlanticweather]

This may be of interest for those trying to remember the details of March 2001. I cut and pasted it at the time from the old ne.weather newsgroup:

 

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 05 THRU 09 MAR 2001

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NCEP...NWS...WASHINGTON DC

2:27 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2001...PRELIMINARY VERSION.

POTENTIALLY SERIOUS E COAST STORM STARTING LATE ON DAY 3 (SUN).

THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG COASTAL WINDS CONTINUES FOR THE

MID-ATLANTIC..  

...MODEL OVERVIEW AND DISCUSSION...

 

WE NOW HAVE HIGHER CERTAINTY THAT THERE WILL INDEED BE THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST...MAYBE EVEN A

BLIZZARD...IN THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD.

THE VERY STRONG BLOCK NW OVER THE SOUTHERN DAVIS STRAIT WILL DRIFT

WESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAYS...BUT CONTROL THE

WEATHER OVER NOAM THE ENTIRE TIME.

CONCERNING THE EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS...MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO

THREE SCHOOLS OF THOUGHT.  THE ECMWF HAS NOW JOINED THE AVN/MRF

NOGAPS IN FORECASTING STRONG CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF CAP HATTERAS IN

THE 60-72 HOUR PERIOD...POSSIBLY EVEN A SNOWSTORM OF HISTORICAL

PROPORTIONS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  

THE MIDDLE SCHOOL IS PORTRAYED BY THE CANADIAN WHICH DROPS A COLD

VORTEX SOUTHWARD ACROSS WV INTO NC DAYS 3-4. WHILE IT STILL HAS ITS

MAIN SURFACE STORM FAR OUT AT SEA...IT IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AT 500

MILLIBARS TO THE LATEST AVN RUN THAT DOES INDEED SHOW AN

INTENSIFYING STORM.

LAST NIGHTS UKMET AND MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN THE MORE

CONSERVATIVE SCHOOL. THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN SLOWLY MOVING A DEEP

COLD VORTEX ACROSS THE ERN LAKES DAY 3. THEIR SOLUTIONS SUPPRESS

STRONG SYS MOVING ACROSS THE SERN STATES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT

HEAVY PCPN DOES NOT GET INTO NYC AND NEW ENG SUN-TUE. UNTIL

TODAY...THE CANADIAN MODEL WAS MORE LIKE THE NOGAPS.  

WHEN WE PUT EVERYTHING TOGETHER...THE NEW AVN RUN HAS ACTUALLY

REINFORCED THE COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS SCENARIO.  THE 60HOUR ETA HAS

TRENDED FARTHER NORTH THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND SHOWS SIGNIFICANT

SNOW FOR THE MID ATLANTIC SUN. WHAT COULD MAKE THIS A HISTORICAL

STORM IS THAT THE VERY COLD DEEP VORTEX OVER NORTHERN MAINE IS

FORECAST BY THE MRF/AVN/ECMWF/NOGAPS TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD

INTO THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THEN MAKE A SHARP

LEFT TURN SOUTHWARD INTO OHIO DAY 3 WHILE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING

OCCURS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE CLOSEST ANALOG TO THIS IS AT 500

MILLIBARS IS THE BLIZZARD OF JAN 29-30 1966. THE FEB 6 1978 CASE...WHICH

BURIED SOUTHERN NEW ENG/NYC/EASTERN PA...IS A CLOSE SECOND. THE MAIN

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 1978 AND THE 1966 CASES IS  THAT THE MAIN VORT

ENERGY ALOFT DROPPED SOUTHEAST AND CLOSED OFF OVER THE DELMARVA

REGION IN 1978 RATHER THAN TURNING SOUTH AFTER A WESTWARD TREK

ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY(1966). THERE IS MINUS 40C AIR AT 500

MILLIBARS IN THE VORTEX OVER NORTHERN MAINE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY

SHOWS A TREMENDOUS SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE CONUS.

THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE OF HEAVY PCPN...COUPLED WITH DE-

STABILIZATION AS VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT REACH THE MID ATLANTIC

COAST...COULD GENERATE A VERY POWERFUL STORM SUN NIGHT INTO TUE FOR

THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AREAS.  WE FEEL THAT THE

AVN SCENARIO IS BASICALLY CORRECT. EAST COAST...WATCH OUT!

...EAST COAST STATES...

USING THE AVN AS OUR MAIN TOOL...WE LOOK FOR HEAVY SNOW SUN NIGHT

INTO MON OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTS.

THERE MAY BE BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING...ALONG WITH WINDS

EXCEEDING GALE FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FARTHER INLAND

..MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM VA THRU THE

SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW WIND CHILLS WITH TEMPS

GENERALLY IN THE HIGH TEENS TO MID 20'S. THERE COULD EVEN BE

THUNDERSNOW.  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED A FOOT FROM

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE MAJOR

METROPOLITAN AREAS. THE AVN HAS TARGETED NJ AS AN AREA WHERE AS

MUCH AS TWO FEET COULD FALL.  THE BACK EDGE OF SNOWFALL FROM WV

INTO ERN OH WILL BE SHARP AND A FUNCTION OF WHERE THE UPPER SHEAR

AXIS SETS UP. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE

EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST.

FARTHER SOUTH...VERY COLD AND WINDY WITH HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE

ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND MUCH OF FL.

FOR TUE (DAY 4)... SNOW GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVER THE SRN NEW

ENG/MID ATLANTIC AREAS. COLD AND WINDY WITH LOW WIND CHILLS AND

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. WINDY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE

EVEN INTO WED (DAY 5) AS THE STORM SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC

COAST.  CONTINUED COLD WITH HARD FREEZES IN NRN FL AND THE GULF

COAST REGION.

ANOTHER STORM IS DEPICTED FOR THE SOUTHEAST STATES DAYS 6-7 WITH THE

EAST REMAINING VERY COLD.

 

     

FLOOD/FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov 

NNNN        

REALLY - You had to pull that?? Come on man - that is like pulling up some tragic story from old to relive it. Why go through the pain.. WHY! WHY..

[gymengineer]

It just occurred to me that the ramped up snowfall map by CWG Tuesday late night was not too far from the Superstorm 1993 actual snowfall accumulations for the general metro area. It was just one category less in most areas-- like 7-14" in the forecast vs. 10-18" for the 3/93 and 5-10" in the forecast vs. 7-13" for 3/93.

3/93 was 2-3" precip in the metro areas. Many were doing this on here, but I do wonder if taking a large step back and looking at what type of storm the forecast was showing might have yielded even more inventive to introduce uncertainty into the forecast. For DCA, almost all of the other storms to go over 5" in March were either a "fluke" (3/99) or a massive East Coast bomb (Cat4 and Cat5 NESIS). The context is important and once the two day stall- with the '62 comparisons- shown earlier disappeared on the models, the idea of an all-time anomalous storm dropped off too. Then we were depending on the storm to develop almost exactly as the more optimistic models were depicting, since although the Euro held, it wasn't exactly the most dynamic over the DC-Baltimore corridor.

The forecast maps on Tuesday night were absolutely suggesting mega-storm with the snowfall total intervals going area-wide and headed out of the area both north and south.

[CoastalWx]

As a snow lover..it sucked to see that. Sickening. I definitely thought you would do better than that.

[Amped]

This....my brother to this day kids me about hyping the "Storm of the Century".

 

 

I'm never making forecasts to family and friends. again. I will direct them to the NWS page or simply say I don't know. I am not taking the heat for it.

[Ian]

It just occurred to me that the ramped up snowfall map by CWG Tuesday late night was not too far from the Superstorm 1993 actual snowfall accumulations for the general metro area. It was just one category less in most areas-- like 7-14" in the forecast vs. 10-18" for the 3/93 and 5-10" in the forecast vs. 7-13" for 3/93.

3/93 was 2-3" precip in the metro areas. Many were doing this on here, but I do wonder if taking a large step back and looking at what type of storm the forecast was showing might have yielded even more inventive to introduce uncertainty into the forecast. For DCA, almost all of the other storms to go over 5" in March were either a "fluke" (3/99) or a massive East Coast bomb (Cat4 and Cat5 NESIS). The context is important and once the two day stall- with the '62 comparisons- shown earlier disappeared on the models, the idea of an all-time anomalous storm dropped off too. Then we were depending on the storm to develop almost exactly as the more optimistic models were depicting, since although the Euro held, it wasn't exactly the most dynamic over the DC-Baltimore corridor.

The forecast maps on Tuesday night were absolutely suggesting mega-storm with the snowfall total intervals going area-wide and headed out of the area both north and south.

 

I think you were one of the ones who kept saying that there are a number of big march storms with gradients of all to nothing that will leave a lot of people unhappy. I mean, I know it was on the models so we should have expected it in some ways. But... history usually a good guide too. 

 

Way back like a week ago I said I wanted the less likely to hit us major phase route rather than the big bowling ball partly because the lacking true cold air. It seems a lot of the things we were worried about at range (and with MArch climo) ended up winning.. we just got lost in the moment.  I strongly believe that many fell into a trap after such a putrid set of years.. we all love being right but we all love snow as much.

[ORH_wxman]

I think you were one of the ones who kept saying that there are a number of big march storms with gradients of all to nothing that will leave a lot of people unhappy. I mean, I know it was on the models so we should have expected it in some ways. But... history usually a good guide too. 

 

Way back like a week ago I said I wanted the less likely to hit us major phase route rather than the big bowling ball partly because the lacking true cold air. It seems a lot of the things we were worried about at range (and with MArch climo) ended up winning.. we just got lost in the moment.  I strongly believe that many fell into a trap after such a putrid set of years.. we all love being right but we all love snow as much.

 

 

You might be right...it def was a trap since it didn't work out. But I don't think it was remotely obvious though...even the most bearish forecasts had pretty significant snow (>3") into DCA. Its always easy with hindsight, but when even DCA was flipping to snow with a fantastic radar overnight, I think the most bearish of the bears would have conceded this was going to be big. Probably a combo of the low getting tucked too far S/SW into SE VA advecting in warmer BL temps and the "Stolen" dynamics and of course the timing didn't help (going into midday...though the issues started in the early morning anyway)....it was literally a combination of factors that could cut back on the snow all happening at once...rolling snake eyes so to speak.

[free_man]

Rhode Island is the New England "DC".  If anyone loops the BOX radar from this storm,  they'll see one of the worst nightmares imaginable happen in RI.

[Jebman]

March 2001.

 

Horrific, absolutely horrific, waking up to full sunshine when I expected to see driving snow.

 

Worst day of my entire life. Worst EVER.

[BlizzardNole]

I am stuck in this area since my career in in DC and moved from Calvert to Germantown to have better chances, and that has worked out at times.  But damn being such a snow lover just makes me feel real hatred for this area in winter.  We deal with 5-plus months of bare trees and wearing coats, but snow has gotten rarer and rarer.  I just wish we had the means to own a little place in Garrett County that we could run to.  A coworker has that, and his wife also loves snow so they frequently will head out there on a weekend when snow is coming.  I wouldn't have so much hate if I had that.

 

I have told my wife we are GONE when I retire.  Truthfully I'd rather live in a warm climate and travel to CO or UT once or twice a winter for snow and skiing.

[North Balti Zen]

I know it evolved differently, and its impact on the eastern shore was very different, but this ended up looking very similar to our Boxing Day whiff for DC/Balt corridor. Snows to our south, swings into the ocean, and comes up and whacks SNE. Boxing Day it snowed at my house for hours and hours, with no accumulation. While it was mostly rain for me on Wednesday, not too far from downtown Balt it snowed for hours and hours with no accumulation.

 

Similar gross outcome between the two storms (for the I-95/beltway areas).

 

I don't remember how places southwest/west of Balt/DC made out on Boxing Day.

[Bob Chill]

SNE will need to start a reverse bust thread tomorrow after many finish shoveling over a foot.

[TalcottWx]

One of the oddest sne burials I've seen. Box radar is crushing. Would have taken the under after bust down here for sure.

[mattie g]

Forecasting a 2"+ storm in dc during met winter is a little risky. Forecasting a 12+" storm in March is riskier than eating medium rare chicken.

 

Do either and you're going to get sh*t for it.

[mattie g]

SNE will need to start a reverse bust thread tomorrow after many finish shoveling over a foot.

 

I usually don't bother with following New England weather, but I can't help but watch the radar today.  The whole thing has become a joke.

[mappy]

SNE will need to start a reverse bust thread tomorrow after many finish shoveling over a foot.

 

Yeah... while I'm not upset by our bust, it is kind of salt in the wound that they can cash in from the storm

[BlizzardNole]

It would be real interesting to see a total winter snowfall map for the area which would show a big hole over the DC-Balt corridor.  Here we had 1" a bunch of times adding up to maybe 7" for the winter, but DCA apparently has very little.  Christmas week was decent well west of DC; areas just NW of Balt got some decent snow; one of the "clipperfest" storms popped east of the bay and gave 5-8" to southern NJ and northern DE.  Now we have the big snow in the Shen Valley and even some west of Richmond. 

[H2O]

I usually don't bother with following New England weather, but I can't help but watch the radar today.  The whole thing has become a joke.

I'm glad I got other things more important going on today.

[WxUSAF]

It would be real interesting to see a total winter snowfall map for the area which would show a big hole over the DC-Balt corridor.  Here we had 1" a bunch of times adding up to maybe 7" for the winter, but DCA apparently has very little.  Christmas week was decent well west of DC; areas just NW of Balt got some decent snow; one of the "clipperfest" storms popped east of the bay and gave 5-8" to southern NJ and northern DE.  Now we have the big snow in the Shen Valley and even some west of Richmond. 

The Washington Post had a great image on their front page on Tuesday or Wednesday showing the NE US and which areas had seen snowcover during the winter (at any time) per orbital imagery.  There was this strip of land from DC up I-95 to Baltimore that had not seen snowcover, while almost all surrounding areas had.  Image might have been made by CWG, not sure.  

[Ian]

The funny thing is this once in a 5-10 year bust is going to make everyone change their forecasting method. Even NWS is asking people if they want two forecasts for a storm. Reactionary.. Like Sandy, like post 4/27..

[mattie g]

I may be a tad overdramatic, but...

 

I'm envisioning zwyts sitting alone on a stool in a room dimly lit by a single lightbulb that dangles precariously from a few frayed wires...quivering...staring with yellow-red eyes at an image of the firehose streaming in from the Atlantic as it slams squarely into Boston Harbor....

[psuhoffman]

1/30/2010?

yep, 3 whole seasons now