Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

November 26th-29th (Snow?) Storm


Powerball

Recommended Posts

This system looks dead right now. We will see if it comes back this weekend.

It will probably still be a system, but nothing strong like we'd hoped. Might give someone thier first covering of snow, maybe above 1" but unless something changes back to what we were seeing yesterday morning, which I doubt it, that's what I'll stick with.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 185
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Crazy how many ups and downs with this system, and its STILL not sampled. Definitely looking bad for a strong storm as well as those of us in MI, but who knows. LOL stuff like this is why it kills me how people freak out over the LR GFS verbatum. We are 3 DAYS out and clueless (and have seen every scenario in the book modeled the last few days).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wouldn't say that. Models trending towards a non/low-impact event as we get closer means that it will likely be just that.

Ok fine...then when we were 5 days out we were clueless. My point was that in the long-term thread you see so many ups and downs with each run of the gfs, its just laughable to think people worry so much about the long-range when we have more than enough problems model-wise in the short-range!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Worse yet, the Euro would lose everybody's confidence.

It could be very possible that the models aren't handling the pacific wave very well. It's just now coming ashore. I could've swore it was much more potent when I looked at it yesterday around this time. Seems the models are handling it well, but can't tell for sure.

post-5974-0-89081800-1353732099_thumb.gi

Link to comment
Share on other sites

AFDDTX

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

............

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS BORN OUT OF THE IMPRESSIVE

LOOKING SYSTEM SPINNING OUT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CLEARLY

VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE NWP MODELS HAVE ALL COME IN

AGREEMENT THIS RUN IN MAINTAINING THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE

SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSHING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE OHIO

VALLEY MEANING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WOULD MISS OUT ON MUCH OF NOT ALL

OF THIS EVENT. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS DESPITE THE DIFFERING

OPINIONS ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK OFF ON POPS EVEN

FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND LOWER THE SNOW CHANCES TO A

SLIGHT CHANCE THIS RUN. THAT BEING SAID THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK NORTH

IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS AS THE LOW ITSELF IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND

HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK YET.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EE rule in effect, Suppressed with some action for those in the southernmost part of our subforum.

LOL at the IWX long term met who talks about what has been mentioned here ad nauseam:

INITIAL PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE TILT AND CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE LAKES WILL KEEP

IT FROM MAKING IT TOO FAR NORTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT NORTHERN FRINGE

OF PCPN SHIELD CLIPPING OUR AREA. GUIDANCE OFTEN WEAKENS OR LOSES A

STORM IN THE 4-5 DAY PERIOD ONLY TO LATCH BACK ONTO A STRONGER

SOLUTION WITHIN 72 HOURS AS WAVE FINALLY REACHES OUR RADIOSONDE

NETWORK. HAVE BEEN BURNT BY THIS SEVERAL TIMES SO OPTED TO RETAIN

LOWER CHANCE POPS MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST SOUTH. THIS WILL

NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR A NARROW SWATH OF

ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HPC ditches the European once again.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

128 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

VALID NOV 24/0000 UTC THRU NOV 27/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR

INGEST...

00Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF EVALUATION WITH MODEL PREFERENCES

==================================================================

NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT

RANGE FORECASTS.

DEEPENING BROAD TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA EARLY NEXT WEEK

===========================================================

PREFERENCE: NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

CONFIDENCE

THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT/DEPTH OF A

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARDS TO THE MODEL TRENDS WITH THE

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE, THE ECMWF SHOWS A DECIDED SLOWING TREND

OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS, WHILE THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN

HAVE MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY PROGRESSION-WISE, THOUGH THE

CANADIAN IS NOTICEABLY WEAKER ALOFT BY TUESDAY THAN ITS OLDER

RUNS. THIS HAS LED TO SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THIS

TIME YESTERDAY, WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING THE QUICKEST (THOUGH IT

IS NOW SLOWER THAN ITS 12Z ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION) WITH THE OTHER

GUIDANCE LAGGING BEHIND. THE OVERALL DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD

REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. DUE

TO SHARPENING RIDGING UPSTREAM NEAR THE WEST COAST, A

SLOWER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE PREFERRED ACROSS THE

PLAINS/MIDWEST/MID-SOUTH DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD, ARGUING

AGAINST THE ECMWF/ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND IN THE DIRECTION

OF THE ECMWF MODEL TREND. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-ECMWF

COMPROMISE SOLUTION HERE, WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW

NORMAL DUE TO MODEL SPREAD AND THE SPEED OF THE FLOW PATTERN THE

SHORTWAVE/CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think this can safely be thrown in the trash. Flow was just to progressive. Euro with a coo.

Disagree. Nothing really has performed extremely well with this imo. Weaker looks to be winning out which is what the Euro was hinting at but it went too extreme in the direction of nothing on some runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Disagree. Nothing really has performed extremely well with this imo. Weaker looks to be winning out which is what the Euro was hinting at but it went too extreme in the direction of nothing on some runs.

was it the Euro or GFS that had a run really early in the tracking life of this one that sent a low through SE WI?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro performed quite well compared to the other models which overly amped up the s/w when the Euro showed it was just going to ride the flow of the jet stream. It just isn't weaker, it isn't even a real storm.

Nobody anywhere in the OV/mid Atlantic/Northeast would be getting snow if some of the past Euro runs played out verbatim. It was too fast/weak until the past couple runs. I've seen better Euro performances before...that's all I'm trying to say.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nobody anywhere in the OV/mid Atlantic/Northeast would be getting snow if some of the past Euro runs played out verbatim. It was too fast/weak until the past couple runs. I've seen better Euro performances before...that's all I'm trying to say.

Euro had it cutting over MKE in it's "long range". GFS was flatter. Of course some demonized it at the time. Perils of OP runs past 5-6 days.

Oh well, see for yourselves the play-by-play starting here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/36904-long-term-disco/page__st__350

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nobody anywhere in the OV/mid Atlantic/Northeast would be getting snow if some of the past Euro runs played out verbatim. It was too fast/weak until the past couple runs. I've seen better Euro performances before...that's all I'm trying to say.

Yeah the Euro has been more all over the road than the GFS. Some people just don't remember the model trends unless they fit their agenda.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Considering this "storm" a non threat for much of our forum members. It's definitely not going to affect me.

On to the next one.

Once our area started to get out of the picture, it looked like New England might get clobbered. Now, they look to miss out as well. If latest trends pan out someone along the coast MIGHT get a few inches. What a disappointing storm for the many who followed it a week out. Oh well....we still have as much 5 more months of tracking snow threats :) Could be a lllllong winter lol. (Though, for every event you follow that ends up a non-event you seem to get a surprise event).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro should get kudos because it was the only one that figured out the energy would not amplify. 168-240 stuff should not be taken as gospel. But that 96-144hr Euro was terrific when things counted. The other models failed. Looking for perfection in surface developements related to the front is alot to ask in that timeframe.

This. The ECMWF did better inside of 180hrs and that's all that matters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro should get kudos because it was the only one that figured out the energy would not amplify. 168-240 stuff should not be taken as gospel. But that 96-144hr Euro was terrific when things counted. The other models failed. Looking for perfection in surface developements related to the front is alot to ask in that timeframe.

This. The ECMWF did better inside of 180hrs and that's all that matters.

I also agree. The GFS initially had the right idea but abandoned it for the stronger solution.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...