-

Looking pretty warm with more widespread sig ridging influence across the central states (again), to start 2026.

Euro and ensemble already going up to 20 C on 850Mb temps ('plain & simple' way above normal this time of year) in some spots the next several days. Which that alone leaves me with almost 0 doubt, more sfc temp records are going to be broken across much of the state, once again.

Along with even dryline influence invading the state as well from the west (more indicative of an early springlike zonal flow pattern). Which will only add more daytime high record-breaking fuel potential to this second (virtually inevitable now) winter heat wave.

"Winter's over, ya'll!"  

With March all but a lock for Denver's warmest since records began in 1872, I thought I'd create a contest similar to the Atlantic hurricane contest (RIP Roger Smith ). Winner gets to complain about next winter whenever they want without repercussions.. we'll see how that goes!

Let's go with # of 90 degrees or hotter/#of 95 or hotter/# of 100 or hotter. Bonus: guess the first 90 degree day. Double bonus: guess the yearly hottest temperature. Contest will be open till April 15, or sooner if there is a 90 degree day before that. Temps will be the ones at DEN.

For reference: (average/max): 90 or higher 44/75 (2020); 95 or higher 16/42 (2012); 100 or higher 1 (median)/13 (2012). Earliest 90+ is April 30.

I'll start: 72/30/7 and 4/28. Hottest=104.

H5 temps may be cold enough for all snow in NTX with the incoming SS Low out west. But I've been seeing the globals (including Euro) being fairly consistent the last couple days on 850Mb and even H7 temps, merely staying around 0 C (if not potentially warmer) for most of the active period with such an unusually broad Gulf low influencing a fairly deep southeasterly LL flow over the Eastern half of state. Which would likely cause some sig LL warming even into DFW area at least to an extent.

 ZCZC
WEHW40 PHEB 300151
TSUHWX

HIZ001-003-006>007-009-016>018-023-026-029>035-037>050-051>054-
300351-
/O.CON.PHEB.TS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER   4
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HONOLULU HI
351 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2025

TO - EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WARNING SUPPLEMENT

A TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

   ORIGIN TIME - 0125 PM HST 29 JUL 2025
   COORDINATES - 52.2 NORTH  160.0 EAST
   LOCATION    - OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA  RUSSIA
   MAGNITUDE   - 8.7  MOMENT

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

 GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON    TIME        AMPL         PER
 -------------------  ----- ------  -----  ---------------  -----
 DART 21414           49.0N 178.2E  0103Z   0.28M /  0.9FT  32MIN
 DART 21416           48.1N 163.5E  0003Z   0.90M /  3.0FT  24MIN

 LAT  - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
 LON  - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
 TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
 AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
        IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
        VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
 PER  - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

 NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
        ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
         MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

 A TSUNAMI HAS BEEN GENERATED THAT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE ALONG
 COASTLINES OF ALL ISLANDS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII. URGENT ACTION
 SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT LIVES AND PROPERTY.

 A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF LONG OCEAN WAVES. EACH INDIVIDUAL WAVE
 CREST CAN LAST 5 TO 15 MINUTES OR MORE AND EXTENSIVELY FLOOD
 COASTAL AREAS. THE DANGER CAN CONTINUE FOR MANY HOURS AFTER THE
 INITIAL WAVE AS SUBSEQUENT WAVES ARRIVE. TSUNAMI WAVE HEIGHTS
 CANNOT BE PREDICTED AND THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST.
 TSUNAMI WAVES EFFICIENTLY WRAP AROUND ISLANDS. ALL SHORES ARE AT
 RISK NO MATTER WHICH DIRECTION THEY FACE. THE TROUGH OF A TSUNAMI
 WAVE MAY TEMPORARILY EXPOSE THE SEAFLOOR BUT THE AREA WILL
 QUICKLY FLOOD AGAIN. EXTREMELY STRONG AND UNUSUAL NEARSHORE
 CURRENTS CAN ACCOMPANY A TSUNAMI. DEBRIS PICKED UP AND CARRIED
 BY A TSUNAMI AMPLIFIES ITS DESTRUCTIVE POWER. SIMULTANEOUS HIGH
 TIDES OR HIGH SURF CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE TSUNAMI HAZARD.

 THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME IN HAWAII OF THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS

                     0717 PM HST TUE 29 JUL 2025

FURTHER MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS
WARRANT UNTIL THE THREAT TO HAWAII HAS PASSED.

$$

NNNN

https://www.tsunami.gov/events/PHEB/2025/07/29/25210002/4/WEHW40/WEHW40.txt

 ZCZC
WEPA40 PHEB 300150
TSUPAC

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 4
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HONOLULU HI
0148 UTC WED JUL 30 2025

...PTWC TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE...

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

 THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE
 UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS
 MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM.

 NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF
 ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED
 INFORMATION.

**** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE *****

THE TSUNAMI FORECAST IS UPDATED IN THIS MESSAGE.

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------

  * MAGNITUDE      8.7
  * ORIGIN TIME    2325 UTC JUL 29 2025
  * COORDINATES    52.2 NORTH  160.0 EAST
  * DEPTH          74 KM / 46 MILES
  * LOCATION       OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA  RUSSIA

EVALUATION
----------

  * AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 8.7 OCCURRED
    OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA AT 2325 UTC ON
    TUESDAY JULY 29 2025.

  * TSUNAMI WAVES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

  * BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... HAZARDOUS TSUNAMI WAVES ARE
    FORECAST FOR SOME COASTS.

TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST...UPDATED
---------------------------------

  * TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING MORE THAN 3 METERS ABOVE THE TIDE
    LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG SOME COASTS OF

      ECUADOR... NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... AND RUSSIA.

  * TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING 1 TO 3 METERS ABOVE THE TIDE LEVEL ARE
    POSSIBLE ALONG SOME COASTS OF

      CHILE... COSTA RICA... FRENCH
      POLYNESIA... GUAM... HAWAII... JAPAN... JARVIS ISLAND...
      JOHNSTON ATOLL... KIRIBATI... MIDWAY ISLAND... PALMYRA
      ISLAND... PERU... SAMOA... AND SOLOMON ISLANDS.

  * TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING 0.3 TO 1 METERS ABOVE THE TIDE LEVEL
    ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME COASTS OF

      ANTARCTICA... AUSTRALIA... CHUUK... COLOMBIA... COOK
      ISLANDS... EL SALVADOR... FIJI... GUATEMALA... HOWLAND AND
      BAKER... INDONESIA... KERMADEC ISLANDS... KOSRAE...
      MARSHALL ISLANDS... MEXICO... NAURU... NEW CALEDONIA...
      NEW ZEALAND... NICARAGUA... NIUE... NORTHERN MARIANAS...
      PALAU... PANAMA... PAPUA NEW GUINEA... PHILIPPINES...
      PITCAIRN ISLANDS... POHNPEI... TAIWAN... TOKELAU...
      TONGA... TUVALU... VANUATU... WAKE ISLAND... WALLIS AND
      FUTUNA... AMERICAN SAMOA... AND YAP.

  * TSUNAMI WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 0.3 METERS ABOVE
    THE TIDE LEVEL FOR THE COASTS OF

      BRUNEI... CHINA... DPR OF KOREA... MALAYSIA... REPUBLIC OF
      KOREA... AND VIETNAM.

  * ACTUAL AMPLITUDES AT THE COAST MAY VARY FROM FORECAST
    AMPLITUDES DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND LOCAL
    FEATURES. IN PARTICULAR MAXIMUM TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ON ATOLLS
    AND AT LOCATIONS WITH FRINGING OR BARRIER REEFS WILL LIKELY
    BE MUCH SMALLER THAN THE FORECAST INDICATES.

  * FOR OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS PRODUCT A FORECAST HAS NOT
    YET BEEN COMPUTED. THE FORECAST WILL BE EXPANDED IF
    NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT PRODUCTS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
-------------------

  * GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR THREATENED COASTAL AREAS
    SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO INFORM AND INSTRUCT ANY COASTAL
    POPULATIONS AT RISK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THEIR OWN
    EVALUATION... PROCEDURES AND THE LEVEL OF THREAT.

  * PERSONS LOCATED IN THREATENED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD STAY ALERT
    FOR INFORMATION AND FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM NATIONAL AND
    LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL
--------------------------

  * ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL -ETA- OF THE INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE
    FOR PLACES WITHIN THREATENED REGIONS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
    ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
    LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
    WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

    LOCATION         REGION             COORDINATES    ETA(UTC)
    ------------------------------------------------------------
    SEVERO KURILSK   RUSSIA            50.8N 156.1E   0110 07/30
    KUSHIRO          JAPAN             42.9N 144.3E   0132 07/30
    HACHINOHE        JAPAN             40.5N 141.5E   0212 07/30
    KATSUURA         JAPAN             35.1N 140.3E   0222 07/30
    HACHIJO JIMA     JAPAN             33.1N 139.8E   0234 07/30
    CHICHI JIMA      JAPAN             27.0N 142.2E   0303 07/30
    MINAMITORISHIMA  MINAMITORISHIMA   24.3N 154.0E   0311 07/30
    MIDWAY ISLAND    MIDWAY ISLAND     28.2N 177.4W   0327 07/30
    GASTELLO         RUSSIA            49.1N 143.0E   0339 07/30
    SAPPORO          JAPAN             43.5N 141.0E   0340 07/30
    SHIMIZU          JAPAN             32.8N 133.0E   0344 07/30
    WAKE ISLAND      WAKE ISLAND       19.3N 166.6E   0350 07/30
    NOBEOKA          JAPAN             32.5N 131.8E   0350 07/30
    LISIANSKI        NORTHWEST HAWAII  26.1N 174.0W   0355 07/30
    NIIGATA          JAPAN             38.0N 139.0E   0359 07/30
    LAYSAN           NORTHWEST HAWAII  25.8N 171.7W   0402 07/30
    FRENCH FRIGATE   NORTHWEST HAWAII  23.9N 166.3W   0432 07/30
    SAIPAN           NORTHERN MARIANA  15.3N 145.8E   0436 07/30
    NECKER           NORTHWEST HAWAII  23.6N 164.7W   0439 07/30
    NIHOA            NORTHWEST HAWAII  23.1N 161.9W   0454 07/30
    GUAM             GUAM              13.4N 144.7E   0457 07/30
    SHIMANE          JAPAN             35.8N 133.0E   0458 07/30
    OKINAWA          JAPAN             26.2N 127.8E   0500 07/30
    ENIWETOK         MARSHALL ISLANDS  11.4N 162.3E   0509 07/30
    NAWILIWILI       HAWAII            22.0N 159.4W   0517 07/30
    HUALIEN          TAIWAN            24.0N 121.7E   0519 07/30
    JOHNSTON ISLAND  JOHNSTON ISLAND   16.7N 169.5W   0520 07/30
    KWAJALEIN        MARSHALL ISLANDS   8.7N 167.7E   0521 07/30
    TAITUNG          TAIWAN            22.7N 121.2E   0524 07/30
    HONOLULU         HAWAII            21.3N 157.9W   0531 07/30
    YAP ISLAND       YAP                9.5N 138.1E   0532 07/30
    NAGASAKI         JAPAN             32.7N 129.7E   0533 07/30
    KAHULUI          HAWAII            20.9N 156.5W   0537 07/30
    PALANAN          PHILIPPINES       17.1N 122.6E   0542 07/30
    POHNPEI ISLAND   POHNPEI            7.0N 158.2E   0542 07/30
    MAJURO           MARSHALL ISLANDS   7.1N 171.4E   0543 07/30
    KOSRAE ISLAND    KOSRAE             5.5N 163.0E   0543 07/30
    CHILUNG          TAIWAN            25.2N 121.8E   0552 07/30
    HILO             HAWAII            19.7N 155.1W   0555 07/30
    KAOHSIUNG        TAIWAN            22.5N 120.3E   0606 07/30
    LAOAG            PHILIPPINES       18.2N 120.6E   0607 07/30
    CHUUK ISLAND     CHUUK              7.4N 151.8E   0612 07/30
    MALAKAL          PALAU              7.3N 134.5E   0612 07/30
    LEGASPI          PHILIPPINES       13.2N 123.8E   0613 07/30
    SAN FERNANDO     PHILIPPINES       16.6N 120.3E   0627 07/30
    GEME             INDONESIA          4.6N 126.8E   0636 07/30
    NAURU            NAURU              0.5S 166.9E   0640 07/30
    DAVAO            PHILIPPINES        6.8N 125.7E   0640 07/30
    BEREBERE         INDONESIA          2.5N 128.7E   0645 07/30
    HOWLAND ISLAND   HOWLAND AND BAKE   0.6N 176.6W   0654 07/30
    WARSA            INDONESIA          0.6S 135.8E   0657 07/30
    TABUKAN TENGAH   INDONESIA          3.6N 125.6E   0702 07/30
    KAVIENG          PAPUA NEW GUINEA   2.5S 150.7E   0703 07/30
    MANUS ISLAND     PAPUA NEW GUINEA   2.0S 147.5E   0704 07/30
    MANOKWARI        INDONESIA          0.8S 134.2E   0705 07/30
    PALMYRA ISLAND   PALMYRA ISLAND     5.9N 162.1W   0707 07/30
    PATANI           INDONESIA          0.4N 128.8E   0711 07/30
    COTABUTO CITY    PHILIPPINES        7.2N 124.2E   0714 07/30
    VANIMO           PAPUA NEW GUINEA   2.6S 141.3E   0718 07/30
    JAYAPURA         INDONESIA          2.4S 140.8E   0719 07/30
    SORONG           INDONESIA          0.8S 131.1E   0722 07/30
    MANADO           INDONESIA          1.6N 124.9E   0723 07/30
    WEWAK            PAPUA NEW GUINEA   3.5S 143.6E   0730 07/30
    RABAUL           PAPUA NEW GUINEA   4.2S 152.3E   0733 07/30
    KANTON ISLAND    KIRIBATI           2.8S 171.7W   0733 07/30
    KIETA            PAPUA NEW GUINEA   6.1S 155.6E   0744 07/30
    FUNAFUTI ISLAND  TUVALU             7.9S 178.5E   0744 07/30
    ULAMONA          PAPUA NEW GUINEA   5.0S 151.2E   0746 07/30
    HOMEL            TAIWAN            24.2N 120.4E   0750 07/30
    AMUN             PAPUA NEW GUINEA   6.0S 154.7E   0751 07/30
    CHRISTMAS ISLAN  KIRIBATI           2.0N 157.5W   0751 07/30
    ZAMBOANGA        PHILIPPINES        7.0N 122.3E   0752 07/30
    MADANG           PAPUA NEW GUINEA   5.2S 145.8E   0759 07/30
    PANGGOE          SOLOMON ISLANDS    6.9S 157.2E   0800 07/30
    JARVIS ISLAND    JARVIS ISLAND      0.4S 160.1W   0801 07/30
    FALAMAE          SOLOMON ISLANDS    7.4S 155.6E   0802 07/30
    WOODLARK ISLAND  PAPUA NEW GUINEA   9.0S 152.9E   0803 07/30
    GHATERE          SOLOMON ISLANDS    7.8S 159.2E   0812 07/30
    MUNDA            SOLOMON ISLANDS    8.4S 157.2E   0818 07/30
    AUKI             SOLOMON ISLANDS    8.8S 160.6E   0819 07/30
    NUKUNONU ISLAND  TOKELAU            9.2S 171.8W   0821 07/30
    KIRAKIRA         SOLOMON ISLANDS   10.4S 161.9E   0822 07/30
    ENSENADA         MEXICO            31.8N 116.8W   0822 07/30
    LAE              PAPUA NEW GUINEA   6.8S 147.0E   0833 07/30
    SANTA CRUZ ISLA  SOLOMON ISLANDS   10.9S 165.9E   0835 07/30
    WALLIS ISLAND    WALLIS AND FUTUN  13.2S 176.2W   0841 07/30
    HONIARA          SOLOMON ISLANDS    9.3S 160.0E   0845 07/30
    MANILA           PHILIPPINES       14.6N 121.0E   0845 07/30
    MALDEN ISLAND    KIRIBATI           3.9S 154.9W   0846 07/30
    PUKAPUKA ISLAND  COOK ISLANDS      10.8S 165.9W   0853 07/30
    FUTUNA ISLAND    WALLIS AND FUTUN  14.3S 178.2W   0854 07/30
    APIA             SAMOA             13.8S 171.8W   0858 07/30
    PAGO PAGO        AMERICAN SAMOA    14.3S 170.7W   0905 07/30
    ESPERITU SANTO   VANUATU           15.1S 167.3E   0907 07/30
    PENRYN ISLAND    COOK ISLANDS       8.9S 157.8W   0908 07/30
    PUNTA ABREOJOS   MEXICO            26.7N 113.6W   0912 07/30
    NIUATOPUTAPU     TONGA             15.9S 173.8W   0915 07/30
    NIUE ISLAND      NIUE              19.0S 170.0W   0940 07/30
    HOLEVA           TONGA             18.6S 173.9W   0941 07/30
    CABO SAN LUCAS   MEXICO            22.8N 110.0W   0950 07/30
    HIENGHENE        NEW CALEDONIA     20.6S 165.0E   0951 07/30
    FLINT ISLAND     KIRIBATI          11.4S 151.8W   0951 07/30
    ANATOM ISLAND    VANUATU           20.2S 169.9E   0956 07/30
    LIFOU ISL        NEW CALEDONIA     20.9S 167.3E   0956 07/30
    SUVA             FIJI              18.1S 178.4E   0957 07/30
    MARE ISL         NEW CALEDONIA     21.6S 167.8E   1006 07/30
    NUKUALOFA        TONGA             21.0S 175.2W   1010 07/30
    OUINNE           NEW CALEDONIA     22.0S 166.8E   1011 07/30
    RAROTONGA        COOK ISLANDS      21.2S 159.8W   1031 07/30
    MAZATLAN         MEXICO            23.2N 106.4W   1039 07/30
    HIVA OA          FRENCH POLYNESIA  10.0S 139.0W   1040 07/30
    NOUMEA           NEW CALEDONIA     22.3S 166.5E   1044 07/30
    PUERTO VALLARTA  MEXICO            20.6N 105.2W   1047 07/30
    PAPEETE          FRENCH POLYNESIA  17.5S 149.6W   1048 07/30
    RAOUL ISLAND     KERMADEC ISLANDS  29.2S 177.9W   1101 07/30
    MANZANILLO       MEXICO            19.1N 104.3W   1105 07/30
    SAN BLAS         MEXICO            21.5N 105.3W   1111 07/30
    LAZARO CARDENAS  MEXICO            17.9N 102.2W   1126 07/30
    TUBUAI           FRENCH POLYNESIA  23.3S 149.5W   1129 07/30
    ACAPULCO         MEXICO            16.9N  99.9W   1140 07/30
    BRISBANE         AUSTRALIA         27.2S 153.3E   1159 07/30
    LOTTIN POINT     NEW ZEALAND       37.5S 178.2E   1159 07/30
    NORTH CAPE       NEW ZEALAND       34.4S 173.3E   1213 07/30
    EAST CAPE        NEW ZEALAND       37.7S 178.5E   1228 07/30
    RAPA ITI         FRENCH POLYNESIA  27.6S 144.3W   1229 07/30
    SYDNEY           AUSTRALIA         33.9S 151.4E   1230 07/30
    GISBORNE         NEW ZEALAND       38.7S 178.0E   1234 07/30
    MOUNT MAUNGANUI  NEW ZEALAND       37.6S 176.2E   1239 07/30
    RIKITEA          FRENCH POLYNESIA  23.1S 135.0W   1239 07/30
    PORT TAURANGA    NEW ZEALAND       37.7S 176.2E   1252 07/30
    WELLINGTON       NEW ZEALAND       41.3S 174.8E   1258 07/30
    SALINA CRUZ      MEXICO            16.5N  95.2W   1259 07/30
    WHANGAREI        NEW ZEALAND       35.8S 174.5E   1307 07/30
    GLADSTONE        AUSTRALIA         23.8S 151.4E   1309 07/30
    KAINGAROA CHATH  NEW ZEALAND       43.7S 176.3W   1310 07/30
    CHAMPERICO RETA  GUATEMALA         14.3N  91.9W   1314 07/30
    AUCKLAND WEST    NEW ZEALAND       37.1S 174.2E   1315 07/30
    PUERTO MADERO    MEXICO            14.8N  92.5W   1315 07/30
    PITCAIRN ISLAND  PITCAIRN          25.1S 130.1W   1316 07/30
    MARLBOROUGH SOU  NEW ZEALAND       41.1S 174.4E   1319 07/30
    OCOS SAN MARCOS  GUATEMALA         14.5N  92.2W   1321 07/30
    TIQUISATE ESCUI  GUATEMALA         14.0N  91.5W   1322 07/30
    NAPIER           NEW ZEALAND       39.5S 176.9E   1322 07/30
    MONTERRICO SANT  GUATEMALA         13.9N  90.5W   1328 07/30
    WAITANGI CHATHA  NEW ZEALAND       43.9S 176.6W   1330 07/30
    SIPACATE         GUATEMALA         13.9N  91.2W   1331 07/30
    PUERTO DE SAN J  GUATEMALA         13.9N  90.8W   1332 07/30
    AUCKLAND EAST    NEW ZEALAND       36.7S 175.0E   1335 07/30
    ACAJUTLA         EL SALVADOR       13.6N  89.8W   1337 07/30
    PICTON           NEW ZEALAND       41.3S 174.0E   1345 07/30
    CABO SAN ELENA   COSTA RICA        10.9N  86.0W   1349 07/30
    MACKAY           AUSTRALIA         21.1S 149.3E   1350 07/30
    CORINTO          NICARAGUA         12.5N  87.2W   1358 07/30
    NEW PLYMOUTH     NEW ZEALAND       39.1S 174.1E   1400 07/30
    PUERTO SANDINO   NICARAGUA         12.2N  86.8W   1404 07/30
    JACKSON BAY      NEW ZEALAND       44.0S 168.6E   1412 07/30
    ISLA DEL COCO    COSTA RICA         5.5N  87.1W   1412 07/30
    SAN JUAN DL SUR  NICARAGUA         11.2N  85.9W   1414 07/30
    PUERTO QUEPOS    COSTA RICA         9.4N  84.2W   1416 07/30
    CABO MATAPALO    COSTA RICA         8.4N  83.3W   1418 07/30
    MILFORD SOUND    NEW ZEALAND       44.6S 167.9E   1418 07/30
    PUNTA BURICA     PANAMA             8.0N  82.9W   1429 07/30
    WANGANUI         NEW ZEALAND       39.9S 175.0E   1432 07/30
    DUNEDIN          NEW ZEALAND       45.9S 170.5E   1434 07/30
    WESTPORT         NEW ZEALAND       41.8S 171.6E   1439 07/30
    STEWART ISLAND   NEW ZEALAND       47.3S 167.5E   1447 07/30
    GREYMOUTH        NEW ZEALAND       42.5S 171.2E   1457 07/30
    TIMARU           NEW ZEALAND       44.4S 171.3E   1503 07/30
    LYTTELTON        NEW ZEALAND       43.6S 172.7E   1508 07/30
    PUNTA MALA       PANAMA             7.5N  80.0W   1515 07/30
    BALTRA ISLAND    ECUADOR            0.5S  90.3W   1520 07/30
    EASTER ISLAND    CHILE             27.1S 109.4W   1522 07/30
    PUERTO PINA      PANAMA             7.4N  78.0W   1525 07/30
    BAHIA SOLANO     COLOMBIA           6.3N  77.4W   1528 07/30
    ESMERELDAS       ECUADOR            1.2N  79.8W   1544 07/30
    TUMACO           COLOMBIA           1.8N  78.9W   1552 07/30
    LA LIBERTAD      ECUADOR            2.2S  81.2W   1605 07/30
    BUENAVENTURA     COLOMBIA           3.8N  77.2W   1611 07/30
    NELSON           NEW ZEALAND       41.3S 173.3E   1621 07/30
    TALARA           PERU               4.6S  81.5W   1625 07/30
    BLUFF            NEW ZEALAND       46.6S 168.3E   1646 07/30
    CAPE ADARE       ANTARCTICA        71.0S 170.0E   1708 07/30
    PIMENTAL         PERU               6.9S  80.0W   1733 07/30
    LA PUNTA         PERU              12.1S  77.2W   1735 07/30
    BALBOA HEIGHTS   PANAMA             9.0N  79.6W   1736 07/30
    CHIMBOTE         PERU               9.0S  78.8W   1741 07/30
    SAN JUAN         PERU              15.3S  75.2W   1749 07/30
    MOLLENDO         PERU              17.1S  72.0W   1822 07/30
    ARICA            CHILE             18.5S  70.3W   1840 07/30
    IQUIQUE          CHILE             20.2S  70.1W   1845 07/30
    ANTOFAGASTA      CHILE             23.3S  70.4W   1854 07/30
    CALDERA          CHILE             27.1S  70.8W   1916 07/30
    COQUIMBO         CHILE             29.9S  71.4W   1926 07/30
    VALPARAISO       CHILE             33.0S  71.6W   1942 07/30
    TALCAHUANO       CHILE             36.7S  73.1W   2006 07/30
    CORRAL           CHILE             39.8S  73.5W   2024 07/30
    GOLFO DE PENAS   CHILE             47.1S  74.9W   2104 07/30
    PUERTO MONTT     CHILE             41.5S  73.0W   2300 07/30

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

  * A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES. THE TIME BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS
    CAN VARY FROM 5 MINUTES TO AN HOUR. THE HAZARD MAY PERSIST
    FOR MANY HOURS OR LONGER AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE.

  * IMPACTS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ONE SECTION OF COAST TO
    THE NEXT DUE TO LOCAL BATHYMETRY AND THE SHAPE AND ELEVATION
    OF THE SHORELINE.

  * IMPACTS CAN ALSO VARY DEPENDING UPON THE STATE OF THE TIDE AT
    THE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI WAVES.

  * PERSONS CAUGHT IN THE WATER OF A TSUNAMI MAY DROWN... BE
    CRUSHED BY DEBRIS IN THE WATER... OR BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA.

TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS
--------------------

  * THE FOLLOWING ARE TSUNAMI WAVE OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL
    AND/OR DEEP-OCEAN SEA LEVEL GAUGES AT THE INDICATED
    LOCATIONS. THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI HEIGHT IS MEASURED WITH
    RESPECT TO THE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL.

                            GAUGE      TIME OF   MAXIMUM     WAVE
                         COORDINATES   MEASURE   TSUNAMI   PERIOD
    GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON     (UTC)     HEIGHT    (MIN)
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    DART 21414           49.0N 178.2E    0103   0.28M/ 0.9FT  32
    DART 21416           48.1N 163.5E    0003   0.90M/ 3.0FT  24

NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------

  * THE NEXT MESSAGE WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE HOUR... OR SOONER IF
    THE SITUATION WARRANTS.

  * AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S.
    GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
    EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV.

  * FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT
    WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

  * COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND
    CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES
    SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT
    WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

  * COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON...
    BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S.
    NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND
    AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV.

$$

NNNN

Main threat seems to be damaging straight line winds, wirh pretty strong wording in the SPC outlook of 80-100 MPH winds.

Shear values in/of themselves aren't the most impressive (although still sufficient), but with the NW flow advecting in drier air aloft and strong surface heating expected, downburst potential is unusually high (especially once a cold pool gets established).

Very large hail will be a secondary threat with any supercells early on with the steep mid-level lapse rates

Saturday

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

NWS says measurable snow hasn't happened in New Orleans metro since 1963 (if I'm correct on it being actual snowfall not since back then).

I am lookin' forward to it!

We need a TRAIN of atmospheric rivers chock full of prodigious Pacific moisture to slam right into the Sierras and dump dump DUMP meters of snow, whipped by 140mph winds at elevation!

----------

Global multi-model output showing significant area of maxed out thunder probabilities just north/east of Houston this afternoon:

This region is also generally being supported on CAMs as well.

Parameters also looking pretty good in this region for severe wind/hail potential as well. Fairly low FZL, generally steep mid-level LRs, and generally 70 kts DL shear by later afternoon on CAMs & globals. Even about 80 kt 500Mb winds by then also, and 50 - 60 kt at 700Mb.

A little surface heating may also be in play closer to Houston area given time of day as well ahead of the cold front later this afternoon.

Interestingly also behind surface cold front, Euro has been insistent the past couple days on developing some post-frontal convection (likely very elevated due to rapidly drying low-levels) during this evening from the mid-coast northeast toward ETX with a swath of high 700Mb RH on GFS also, slicing rapidly east/southeast to the coast.

Just a really quick post because I’m wrapping up a storm chase, but I’ll add more analysis tonight or first thing in the morning. 

I observed a few tornadoes in Madison County, Nebraska today. The first was a dusty hybrid tornado, while a second was a brief cone and the third was a more well defined, but brief tornado over Kalamazoo, NE:

I’m uploading better resolution video, but here’s a preview from Twitter:

There have been numerous other storms, including a supercell over north-central Oklahoma. I debated on staying local to chase that, but ultimately went for the target that had greater tornado potential. It looks like @andyhbwas on that storm:

The first half of next week has potential, but threats could begin by this weekend (May 18-19). Since we’re near the climatological peak of the severe weather season. I decided to group the time together, as ensemble signals suggest an active stretch may linger through Memorial Day weekend and beyond. 

The synoptic pattern appears to be going through a shift this week. As of now (May 14), upper level ridging is developing across the Pacific Northwest. A series of low amplitude shortwaves will dig toward the Southeast, most notably around the May 16-17 period, before pattern realignment takes place. SPC has outlined a Day 4 risk area across the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity as this takes place and MRGL/SLGT risk areas precede that over the next 1-3 days.

This weekend, May 18-19, ridging is expected to build across the south-central states, as troughing digs across southwestern Canada. There may be some severe potential around this timeframe across the Central Plains vicinity.

Early next week is when ensemble and analog guidance suggest a broader scale, severe-favorable setup develops across the western/central US. Details are TBD, but the general pattern may support troughing across the West, ridging shifting toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and enhanced upper level flow overspreading the southern/central Plains. 

It’s too soon to speculate about any major trough ejection or individual day that might feature the greatest threat. Operational runs of the Euro and GFS vary with trough amplification and timing. There are some signs that some stubborn troughing across the Great Lakes/Northeast could emerge late in the month. While that’s not necessarily ideal for Plains severe activity, we are moving into the time of the year where that’s still workable. 

The last run of the Euro Weeklies hints at this, but still shows a general pattern that would support severe thunderstorm activity from the Plains into the Midwest. 

Those with trips or “chasecation” prospects should be encouraged by the signals. It’s already been an active year, but another active stretch appears to be in the works. 

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0403 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024

   Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   For Saturday/D4 to Sunday/D5, scattered to perhaps numerous
   thunderstorms are possible over a large section of the CONUS from
   the southern Plains into the Southeast. Mid 60s F to lower 70s F
   dewpoints will be common across the entire area, aided by southerly
   surface winds around an East Coast high. Aloft, generally weak flow
   will exist over the same areas, well east of a developing western
   upper trough. As such, the weak shear will likely minimize overall
   severe potential through Sunday/D5.

   For Monday/D6, models have shown increased run-to-run consistency in
   depicting a deep upper trough developing over the Great Basin and
   emerging into the Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place
   ahead of this system, which is forecast to enter the central Plains
   with a negative tilt and strong shear. While minor trough-geometry
   differences exist amongst the models, the combination of
   strengthening shear, a potentially deep surface low and ample
   moisture and instability necessitate introducing severe
   probabilities for parts of the Plains on Monday. All facets of
   severe appear possible with such a system, including supercells,
   squall lines, tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.

   ..Jewell.. 05/01/2024