New York City Metro Latest Topics

April 2026

Sat, 28 Mar 2026 17:56:22 +0000

Starts warm then turns cooler again. What will the rest of the month bring?

Memory Lane

Sat, 05 Jan 2019 17:45:41 +0000

Talk about past storms in here. Posts all your favorites and the ones you hated too. It might help keep the main disco threads from going too far off the rails. TIA.

Interior NW & NE Burbs 2026

Thu, 01 Jan 2026 05:28:53 +0000

Happy New Year to all of us that live out yonder! Have had flurries and light snow all evening, not much new on the ground but that line to the NW looks interesting.

Winter cancelled/uncancelled banter 25/26

Fri, 27 Jun 2025 21:41:05 +0000

The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

Tue, 17 Feb 2026 01:05:04 +0000

It's tiring reading the back and forth about starting a thread vs not starting a thread. Who cares. There's no such thing as a jinx and even though the models have been performing poorly at this range this year, it's fine to discuss a storm in a dedicated thread. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't but if it doesn't it's not bc a thread was started. The pattern doesn't look ideal for a big storm but who knows! Enjoy all the ups and downs of tracking a possible event. This forum is supposed to be fun. Enjoy the weather and may the odds be ever in your favor.

OBS: 1/25-26 Snow/Sleet

Sun, 25 Jan 2026 00:39:34 +0000

Put all observations in this thread. 14 here currently, hoping I can luck out and make it to double digit snow/sleet combo. Good luck to all and may the yellow sleet line on the CC radar get curb stomped.

March 2026

Wed, 25 Feb 2026 15:04:04 +0000

Since March is 4 days away I figured I’d start a March thread. Discuss….

November 2025 OBS Discussion

Sat, 25 Oct 2025 10:37:55 +0000

Added CPC's Oct 16 outlook.

Winter 2025-26 Grading

Sat, 07 Mar 2026 01:09:09 +0000

State your location and grade.

Rain/Thunder and Anafrontal Snow

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 22:16:23 +0000

After Central Park hit earliest 80 degree day ever, and today hitting 70's tomorrow evening we could be talking some heavy snowfall which shouldn't accumulate to much but it'll coming down for a couple of hours! Mostly a car topper but someone could get a surprise 1-2 inches Thursday evening

2/24 - 2/25 Clipper Obs (1 - 2" for many on forum)

Tue, 24 Feb 2026 15:08:43 +0000

Almost all models have a little refresher for late tonight and early tomorrow.

Anywhere from 0.5" - 2.0" seems likely for most. Obs here.

February 2026 OBS & Discussion

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 14:12:20 +0000

Cold to start. Will storms return or mostly dry? Early spring? What will the groundhog say?

It's not coming 1/31-2/1 2026

Mon, 26 Jan 2026 16:04:09 +0000

It's on like Donkey Kong

Snowfall contest for Feb 22-23 ... deadline for entries 06z Feb 22nd (0100h EST) ... NOW CLOSED TO ENTRIES

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 23:48:36 +0000

Predict the snowfall totals for Feb 22 and 23 (as reported in CF6 documents) for the five local sites (NYC, LGA, ISP, JFK, EWR).

Entries received after 0100h Sunday (06z 22nd) will not count and will not be scored. You may edit your original posts up to that deadline, I will not create a table of forecasts until 06z so I won't need any notification of edits made. By 07z I should have the table completed so any edits after that point will not count either.

It would speed things up for me if you listed your five predictions in the order shown (NYC, LGA, ISP, JFK, EWR) but I will be on the lookout for predictions in a different order. Add any comments you want to add, about regional maximum values and amounts at other locations; these will have no bearing on contest scoring though.

Forecasts to nearest tenth of an inch (storm total 22nd-23rd, any snow reported for 21st or 24th will not count towards contest). Forecasts in whole inches will be converted to decimal.

Contest scoring will be done by an error-squared method to reward consistently good forecasts. If your errors were 1, 3, 2, 4, 6, your error squared total would be 1+9+4+16+36 = 66. As a secondary contest report value, I will also compare error totals (simple addition). We'll see if that makes any difference to the rankings. It usually does to some extent.

The only tiebreaker will be best low error. If your total is the same as another entry, it goes to which entry has the lower maximum error (squared will be same as unsquared in this case).

I may add some model predictions and NWS official forecasts if I can identify them accurately enough. Their rankings will not affect your rankings.

Good luck.

(note: it seems unlikely but in the event of a total event cancel over all guidance, the contest will be declared null and void before deadline)

Guess The Date Of The Next 12"+ Snowstorm In The OKX Zones

Sat, 24 Nov 2018 19:33:56 +0000

There are some interesting surprises with the timing of 12"+ snowstorms during the historic 2010's snowfall era. The first unusual occurrence is that the October 29 to November 15 period has been more active than the December 1-15 interval. Another interesting pattern is the more active first half of March than the second part of February.

Roughly 2 week snowfall periods for the 2010's and number of 12"+ snowstorms

Oct 29-Nov 15.....3

Nov 16-Nov 30....0

Dec 1- Dec 15.....0

Dec 16-Dec 31....3

Jan1-Jan 15.......4

Jan16-Jan 31.....7

Feb 1-Feb 15.....7

Feb 16-Feb 28...2

Mar 1- Mar 15....6

Mar 16-Mar 31...1

Apr 1-Apr 16.....0

Individual events and the highest snowfall totals

2026

Feb 22-23….Central Islip…31.0”

Jan 25-26….Bridgeport…15.3”

2022

Jan 28-29….Islip….24.7

2021

Jan 31-Feb 2....Blomingdale, NJ.....26.1

2020

Dec 16-17 East Tremont, NY....12.4

2019

Mar 3-4...Monroe, CT....12.0

2018

Nov 15....Mount Hope, NY.......18.3

Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1

Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3

Mar 8....New Farfield, CT..........26.8

Mar 2...Monroe, NY.................14.0

Jan 4...Islip, NY.......................15.8

2017

Mar 14...Montgomery, NY.......23.5

Feb 9...Selden, NY...................16.0

Jan 7...Orient, NY....................12.5

2016

Feb 5...Setauket, NY................12.0

Jan 23..JFK,NY.........................30.5

2015

Feb 2..New Faifield, CT............12.0

Jan 26-27....Orient,NY.............28.5

2014

Feb 13-14...Roselle, NJ............16.7

Jan 21-22....Centerreach,NY....14.0

Jan 2-3......Lindenhurst, NY.....12.5

2013

Mar 8....Harriman,NY..............15.0

Feb 8....Upton, NY..................30.9

2012

Nov 7-8.....Monroe, CT..........13.5

Jan 21......North Haven, CT....12.0

2011

Oct 29.....Harriman, NY.........16.0

Jan 26-27...NYC................... 19.0

Jan 11-12.......Meriden, CT....29.0

2010

Feb 25-26...Mount Hope, NY...27.5

Dec 26........Elizabeth, NJ........31.8

Feb. 10.....Sound Beach, NY....16.2

2009

Dec 19-20....Upton, NY..........26.3

Presidents' day Snow potential

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 18:32:52 +0000

I am back and I figured we could open up a thread for this. I've been excited for this storm and I think that Bermuda High will essentially bring this storm to our latitude and go through a bombogenesis phase and give us a healthy snowstorm.

Discuss away.

Predict the cold and snow == contest (deadline for entries 0100h EST Sat Feb 7th

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 00:27:43 +0000

This thread may now also be used to discuss the forthcoming light snow and very cold event starting Friday night and lasting into Monday. The first discussion as such begins in the thread dated Thursday Feb 5th at around 4 p.m. ... continue to enter the contest if you wish, to the deadline 06z Saturday.

CONTEST

Simple format, only NYC data will be used ... predict the lowest max and min values that will go into the books for this three-day interval. It's probably going to be Feb 8-9 that score the lowest values, on Saturday the 7th it will be turning colder all day so the max could be higher than the afternoon temperature by several degrees. You'll need to consider any late warming potential on Monday 9th in making your forecast. The lowest minimum could be on the 8th or 9th. You don't have to predict when, just what the lowest value will be.

I will start off with a LOW MAX 14, MIN 4 forecast.

Tiebreaker will be measurable snow total in same three-day interval plus Tuesday 10th (not Friday 6th, if you foresee it snowing before midnight that won't be part of the contest amount). My tie-breaker prediction is 0.6" of snow total for the four days.

Besides being a tie-breaker for the temperature contest, I will rank-score the tie-breakers separately too. Predict zero, trace or 0.1" increments -- trace beats 0.0" if there is a trace, 0.0" beats trace if there is no trace. Tied ranks in either category (total error degrees, total snowfall error) will be further separated out by size of errors (3,3 beats 4,2) and then if no other way, order of entry (early beats late). My entry will be considered last entry so I won't tie-break anyone entering at any time. For purposes of this contest only, differential of zero snowfall to Trace, and Trace to 0.1" snowfall will be taken as equal whether it really is equal by degree of the trace observed or not.

If you do edit your post, kindly indicate a time (EST or z) when you last did that, for order of entry considerations. I won't otherwise know you've edited your entry.

Your template if you want to use it

MAX __F ... MIN __F ... SNOW ___"

Please avoid use of the dash symbol in your post as it can be confused with a minus. Here's an example of a confusing entry.

MIN - 5F (meaning +5 F).

but it could easily be read as -5 F. Don't use the - key unless you are saying minus. I will interpret M in front of any number as meaning minus.

DEADLINE FOR CONTEST will be Saturday 0100h (06z Feb 7th).

Edit entries before that deadline as I won't be noting any predictions until the deadline has passed.

___ The contest time periods will not change regardless of later model run changes, which is why I made the snowfall period longer. If the cold spell unexpectedly got more severe on Tuesday than on Monday, that would not influence the results, still based on temps Sat to Mon only. Snow is Sat to Tues in total.

January 2026 OBS and Discussion

Fri, 26 Dec 2025 05:49:22 +0000

Looks like January should start off cool with an otherwise near normal month temp and precip wise

January 26th Final Storm Totals and Year to Date totals only if you have them

Mon, 26 Jan 2026 13:22:29 +0000

Highland Mills Orange County NY, 50 miles North of Central Park

16.3 inches final total, 42.6 inches now for the season.

Most notably it never went above 9° through the event, yet snow ratios were not exceptional. There was never a change to sleet here but temperatures were warm enough in the mid levels to mute snow growth and not get the 15:1 to 20:1 ratios some might expect at these temperatures. The closest station to me showed 1.31 inches of liquid for the event which would be a little over a 12:1 ratio. Not terrible but not what you would expect from an entire day of snowfall at single digit readings.

Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

Mon, 19 Jan 2026 19:54:34 +0000

The primary signal this upcoming weekend is for potentially record-breaking cold driven by a deep, anomalous trough settling over the region.

Guid2-meter temperatures solidly in the single digits, with readings near 5°F to around 11°F across much of the city and immediate suburbs at 12z Sunday. That places the region well below climatological norms and indicates a deeply entrenched Arctic air mass rather than transient radiational cooling. Inland locations just north and west of the city are even colder, reinforcing a strong low-level cold pool draining southward.

The coastal influence is visible but limited. While the nearby ocean slightly moderates temperatures, it is not enough to prevent NYC from remaining firmly in the freezer. The tight temperature gradient just offshore highlights how marginal changes in low-level flow could matter, but as depicted here, the city remains locked into dangerously cold conditions that would be capable of challenging daily record lows and producing dangerously low wind chills if even modest winds persist.

Cold air is firmly locked in, so any precipitation shown here would fall as snow for the NYC area. With a deep Arctic air mass in place, there are no thermal concerns. The EC-AIFS total QPF signal of roughly 2–4 inches liquid over the period would translate efficiently to snowfall, potentially with higher-than-normal ratios given the cold column. Even lighter events could accumulate quickly in this regime.

The larger takeaway is that this looks like a sustained cold, active pattern rather than a single storm threat. Storm tracks favoring the coast with NYC near the western edge of the precipitation shield suggest multiple chances for accumulating snow. Individual event details will matter, but precipitation type is not in question. In this setup, the cold does the heavy lifting; the only variables left are track, timing, and frequency.

With extremely cold temperatures in place, snowfall efficiency becomes a major factor. In an Arctic air mass like this, snow-to-liquid ratios can easily exceed climatological averages, meaning even modest liquid amounts translate into greater snowfall depth. The ECMWF Kuchera output already reflects enhanced ratios, but if the cold column deepens further or dendritic growth is maximized, actual ratios could run higher than modeled.

For NYC, that means the depicted ~6 inches is not a hard ceiling. In a very cold, well-saturated column, snowflakes tend to be fluffier and accumulate more efficiently, especially if rates increase under banding. In this setup, depth is driven less by raw QPF and more by how effectively the atmosphere converts that moisture into snow, and extreme cold tilts that equation in favor of higher totals.

Snow Contest January 25th-26th

Fri, 23 Jan 2026 16:30:04 +0000

Let's do only major cities and your city

Predict the snowfall for the next snowstorm for these cities!

New York City:

Boston:

Philadelphia:

Washington DC:

Hartford:

Albany:

Your city:

We'll announce the winners after the snow event!

Entries close Saturday at 5PM

Good luck!

Storm potential January 17th-18th

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 16:04:16 +0000

Here comes the big one hopefully

OBS/Totals for 12/26-27 Storm

Fri, 26 Dec 2025 03:45:04 +0000

Post obs and totals here. Good luck to all.

Some guesses:

-Central Park 4.8", JFK 5.0", MMU: 4.2", HPN: 6.7", EWR: 4.0", ISP: 7.0", BDR: 7.3"

New Brunswick: 2.8"

Middletown NY: 7.5"

Newburgh NY: 7.1"

PHL 1.2" of crud, TTN: 1.6"-a little more snow but still mostly crud, ABE 2.1"

December 2025 OBS and Discussion

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 21:42:30 +0000

I've appended the week 3-4 CPC Outlook issued 11/21 and the monthly outlook issued 11/20. Click for clarity.

There has been discussion of the stratwarm impact on North America In December. I hope I'm very wrong thinking "is that all there is around the NYS subforum?"

For now unless the 5H cold core recenters - penetrates significantly further south into Hud Bay (below 60N) or we develop a 'general' +PNA, -NAO in December, its impact here in the northeast may be minimal. I just don't know. Others hereon are more informed.

Entire month open to discussion...bring on the snow and lets get off to a good start in CP etc.

Interior NW & NE Burbs 2025

Wed, 01 Jan 2025 14:45:42 +0000

As is tradition here is our new annual thread, Happy New Year to all of us hinterland folks.