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Eagle Rock, VA here, about 30 mi NW of Roanoke. We shall see what happens, animals were deff moving this evening when I was hunting. I’m off work tomorrow and hoping we do well.

No one does northern crew ragebait quite like the prime time GFS

38 here now

Target imo: 30°, I think if we could make it there before the cloud cover gets dense, we got a shot. 30 because you’ve gotta adjust for the 3-4° bump inevitably coming with the sky blanket. If we get moisture in early, it could really help since every cam has us at like 40/41 at the start.

I haven't even considered doing that tomorrow. Its an hour and 15 drive and I have class at 1pm so maybe mid morning would work. That said, its finals week so I may just stay local to conserve my energy. Will you be going back there though?

I don't think it has but I think it may have permanently caused a very strong raging Pacific jet (Pacific puke). Looks like from what I have seen we will have to deal with this every winter. Surprisely, CFS weeklies and monthies don't look like what its showing on the EPS and GEPS. The Euro weeklies don't really look like that either some relaxations to normal temperatures. The Euro AI also looks very cold and some warmup but it relaxes fast.

@michsnowfreak I did better with the Nov storm but you've now gotten 360% of my Dec total. It's all relative, lol. Certainly right there with you regarding life in the shadow of IA/IL/WI hot zone. Other than Dec '74 Detroit is not known as huge front end winter paradise. More so the back half. Your F/M/A avg's are better than I had in Marshall.

3.7” as of 5:45

We need Tomer Berg to show us why this will come north

Hard to figure out what to expect around Fredericksburg. Feel like an inch at where I work in Spotsy County could be doable but more like 0.5” at home in Stafford. Good times! Good luck everyone!

Sunset. Not a cloud in the sky. .

what in abomination is this lol

Should get some good radiational cooling taking please earlier on this evening. Still a decent amount of clear skies before the sun set here. Temp down to 39 from a high of 46.

Soundings on the nam look pretty good. The only level anywhere near or above freezing is right at the surface and that's at the beginning. Mid level winds are out of the east and not south like usual when it gets going and surface winds are out of the north the whole time. Mid level winds veer NE towards the end. We'll see how it goes but my personal algorithm says the snow will be dry and fluffy. Could get some decent ratio stuff where the best lift runs overhead and both our yards have some periods of that. Not too shabby for early Dec

Nice fatties up there.

Also, for the record, I’d still gamble DC sees a T out of this.

I tend to agree. The 12/2 system was another flag. It was literally in the 20s the evening that precip was set to arrive lol. I also think this area is more prone to drought now especially if northern stream systems are going to be further north. At a certain point, it becomes less of a trend and more of a question of whether this is the new base state. Time will tell. It's early in the season, but so far it's a lot of the same.

If you all don’t send pics we’ll banish you to another subforum for real! Good luck

Agree, its definitely colder... In Charlottesville at the moment - already down to 33 according to the car...

looks like every run's a different focus ... 12 hours, 24 or 36 apart from where it was on the last run, because it's actually a different wave altogether in a general careening buckshot of probably nearly impossible to process s/w swarm

Loaded up and ready to go in Bedford county.

TELL ME MORE!!

The last few years have just been very paltry everywhere, so there's more random variation with one or two storms versus six or seven. Lower numbers = higher standard deviation. Like in 2011- 2012, Central Virginia got a random storm that dropped 4-8" and ended up with more snow than DC/Baltimore. That was the only snow that winter. If we're moving back into a more favorable climo, we will go back to a more normal regional distribution.

Just how it always seems to feel but things have evened out over the past few seasons I feel like. Def in the “sweet spot” for the time being. .