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I think these warm blobs are nothing more than a result of the pattern and not an influencer of the pattern. I think it could help feedback but no way can it overpower other influencing factors IMO.

78 / 63 sunny and warming. Low - mid 80s Thu / Fri ahead of the front. Cooler but another dry weekend. Warmer overall Mon - beyond. Next threat of rain comes 25 - 27, otherwise dry.

Maybe the happy middle is naming non tropical storms and use a naming convention that is different than what is used for tropical storms. This would raise public awareness to a certain degree. Off the top of my head, maybe use the NATO Phonetic alphabet for non tropical storms. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_phonetic_alphabet

The Pacific is showing some large scale cooling in recent days, have to see if that is just the beginning of something or a blip in the road.

Thanks for sharing. I can attest to how this approach does mitigate flood damage to homes. My home on St. George Island is on 12' pilings. I had two feet of water under my home from Helene last year. It was not from storm surge but from excessive rainfall that had nowhere to go because the water table was full. That article is misleading in that it does not mention the 15' requirement. The article mentions a 2' requirement if building on a 100 or 500 year flood plain but that may be not be enough based on what Harvey did.

Finally getting some clearing here. Local observations put the event just under 2" for us. Seemed like a lot more than that.

If this dry pattern continues into October and it looks like it will, my fear is that this drought has a chance of becoming worse than last fall….that dry pattern didn’t start until after mid-August, this one started at the tail end of July

Understood, totally agree.

Wife and I were joking that our dog got a new house on our land way before us lol. So why not... auto water and maybe a pinball machine and mini fridge.

I meant for this to be in the banter thread, but the point is that one has to use established definitions consistently for clear communication. Otherwise, confusion can erode preparedness and public safety.

Yeah we're easily in the lowest multiyear snow drought. The scary thing is I think the pattern is set. NYC will likely have a mean around 15" for good now.

We kicked around the chicken/egg debate quite a bit that year. Looking back at historical data it looks (to me) that the initial warm pool was the direct result of a persistent anomalous pattern causing the PDO to spike and then some sort of feedback. SSTA plots through the fall of 2013 don't look like a harbinger to me. The NE pac was loaded with BN temps in early October but then flipped over the next month into Nov. But the PDO was spiking during that time which makes sense. Persistent troughing near Japan would naturally have a downstream ridge. Then in Dec the -epo kinda shoved the warm pool further east into the GOA region. When I look at this stuff from a 10k' view, the +PDO was the catalyst for the SSTA configuration leading to the "warm blob". The blob got bullied and enhanced by a anomalous -epo pattern that kept reloading. We've discussed this before but worthing pointing out again.... the NE pac has a cold current and is never "warm". So 5 degrees above normal is still pretty cool. Hard to say how much influence that area of the Pacific can have on the upper levels of the atmosphere. Imho, the upper levels drive the bus and not the other way around in this specific region. But having the type of ssta configuration we has in 2013-14 was most definitely an important clue or guage of what was going on in the atmosphere. If this winter isn't going to be a dud, the crazy -PDO has to implode at some point leading into met winter. You've pointed this out already but if the PDO is roasting when we're eating turkey and watching NFL games... I won't be very optimistic

Well compared to naked swirl aka Gabrielle, maybe he has a point, haha I don't get how Gabrielle exists at the moment.

Yeah the winter pattern is set. The warm blob's gonna go away, the western pac will boil. We'll get a horrible zonal pac jet that floods the east with warm mild air, and the rockies and west will get freezing cold and snowstorms every day. 22-23 / 23-24 repeat, but possibly worse.

Well said. Cold-core low. That alone should dispel any argument.

Lol yeah the pattern in recent years has been the total opposite in fact. Cold out west, blowtorch in the east.

Perhaps because his tropical forecast is in bad shape due to a quiet hurricane season so far, Joe Bastardi is now insisting that meteorologists embrace his private fiction of what constitutes a tropical cyclone. As noted previously, the system had fronts. It was a nor'easter. It was not a tropical cyclone. It should not have been classified as a tropical cyclone any more than a winter nor'easter should be classified as a tropical storm or hurricane.

Just this morning a pro met (no, not JB) said the warm blob was strengthening. Funny how some live in the Land of Make Believe

I have to admit that it would be funny to see the NE Pacific cool back more than the W Pac and see how weenie forecasters would then spin it. Of course @snowman19would have a blast!

I think the opposite is true for La Nina....which is what the RONI reflects. The surrounding atmosphere is more of an impediment for the expression of warm ENSO.

He was slow this time, but Bastardi finally this morning had his expected say about Gabrielle’s current anemic look vs the NC/VA no name system: What a Joke. Stratocu Swirl Gabrielle Then Joe compares satellite images of the two: Gabrielle: now a naked swirl but still being called a TS Offshore NC/VA nontropical low: was never tropical and thus was never a TS but unlike Gabrielle now it did have some nearby convection/tropical characteristics at this point: What JB especially doesn’t like is the inconsistency more than whether or not the offshore NC/VA nontropical low should have been named (he was wishy-washy on that). He thinks Gabrielle should be downgraded though I have to admit it still has a very tight tropical swirl unlike no-name.

Heck....just tap into the well and give him a refillable water trough :-)

Weather-related shock therapy?