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12z HRRR and RAP. These are essentially the last maps that will capture the entire storm (subsequent ones will miss any earlier accums).

I believe in the 0z Euro

The ensembles have a pretty strong signal on Day 9/10. Whether that pans out positively for SNE is the WinterWolf question of the day. We just don't know.

trees are glazed a bit here in western loudoun 31.8

The reset (if real) is two weeks away. Lots will change between now and then.

Flipping between snow/ice depending on the intensity. Our school district closed; but Murphy calling a state of emergency for northwest Jersey may be more ridiculous.

Some sleet mixing back in with the rain now. Still 32°. Edit- just like that, it’s back to snow.

He’d be giddy inside.

fwiw... heading for nw NJ... a widespread area of mdt-heavy snow over ne pa and heading ne. vsby aob 1/2 mi there.

Thank you.

Expecting a fairly quick transition here as well. Areas to my south in SE PA have already gone to sleet/rain.

This is Shocking Brett.

Maybe @wxmeddler can pull a profiler site up? He's famous for finding those nuggets of information.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, so you are saying we just don’t know?

Yep, nice to just get the moisture in here!

This morning's wintry mix our 2nd winter event of the season should slowly change to plain rain as we rise above freezing in most spots by later this morning. Some higher ridge spots may take into the early PM to get above freezing. Be careful if out driving this morning. Either way the rain will end later today, and we will stay much colder than normal for the rest of the week. Our warmest day looks to be tomorrow with temperatures near 10 degrees below normal for early December. We turn even colder by Friday with highs remaining below freezing for much of the area. There is a slight chance of some light snow on Friday night.

Pounding in this band. 21.1°

This morning's wintry mix our 2nd winter event of the season should slowly change to plain rain as we rise above freezing in most spots by later this morning. Some higher ridge spots may take into the early PM to get above freezing. Be careful if out driving this morning. Either way the rain will end later today, and we will stay much colder than normal for the rest of the week. Our warmest day looks to be tomorrow with temperatures near 10 degrees below normal for early December. We turn even colder by Friday with highs remaining below freezing for much of the area. There is a slight chance of some light snow on Friday night.

Today is early in the season has nothing to do with previous Winters. I definitely see some opportunities whether they work out or not I don’t know obviously.

Curious what the actual temp profile was when the precip moved in to see how where the warm layer was and how much we actually missed by.

3"+ so far. Looks like deep winter out there. Excellent start to Winter.

In the last few frames, the CC line appears to be dropping east towards I-81. Maybe our far NW crew flips back to IP/SN?

I think any mix is really limited. Seems more like a rain or snow deal.

Nope. Ensembles are rather tepid for anything to. I’ll believe it when I see it with regards to snow. Maybe that’s childish, but whatever. We’ve found every way to fail over the last couple years and today’s event is an extension of that. Hope I’m wrong, but I’d bet most are waiting until around or after the holidays for snow.