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Forecast models haven't gotten worse, what has gotten worse over the last decade is forecasting skill and a large part of that is due to all of these ridiculous products which have supplemented the actual forecast process. So many convective events in the Plains hyped up because of supercell composite and significant tornado crap, snow maps, etc. It's all run to snow maps, QPF output, etc. which more often than not will not produce an accurate assessment and then when they don't verify, its cry and blame models rather than taking personal responsibility.

I would definitely lose it if I get skunked, and interior se MA has a nice event.

Barely a dusting here. Not even enough to cover the leftover leaves I didn’t pick up…. 6-8” here seems extremely unlikely unless we get some crazy 1”/hr rates late tonight. We are hours from the heavy bands from what I can see on the radar. I hope I’m wrong!

Hit that in a heartbeat.

I am.

Hmm wish we lived at 5H. Ye @das throw up qpf mslp temp surface level comparisons

NBC10 guy (forget his name but he is a closet snow weenie) going with basically nothing for Philly, up to 1" local burbs and 1-3" further north for Tuesday... 30F

There has never been a larger snowfall on Dec 2nd than 3.9" which happened in 1929 (NYC data). Another similar event was 3.8" 2nd-3rd 1903. The daily records for 1st to 3rd are 1.5" (1880), 3.9" (1929) and 3.0" (1903). A somewhat larger 8" snowfall happened on 4th of 1957 but early December does not have much going for it in the heavy snow department, Nov 30 1882 did better than all of those efforts (8" plus another inch on Dec 1). Maybe before records began in 1869 there was something bigger. I found several instances of severe cold in this part of the early winter that did not bring much snowfall, for example 1875 and 1926. (this is not meant to offer any sort of prediction, I am just looking at the guidance for this event for the first time now)

I mean, I’m waiting for it to pull the rug out, and it keeps doubling down

A 2 to 1 blend in favor of Euro would actually be one of the few ways we get widespread 4-8” amounts across a lot of SNE into CNE. Maybe we’ll actually catch a knife’s edge in our favor this time. Would be nice juju to start the season after the last several years.

if you live in the hilly countryside maybe, but i'm not anticipating more than 1-2" of slop at 150'

This isn't a real strong Stratosphere warming so far

Same here.. curious to see if the 18z EPS moves north at all

It wasn't a serious post.

You posted it without any caveats, not a mind reader although we can read Scooters prepost

As long as I get like 4", I'll be fine...but less than that, I'll probably have an early melt.

From Iowa:

Euro would be nice for interior SE MA. Wonder if Brett can whine his way to a warning event.

The euro is trash, Toss.

That model is too cold.. it has me >30% of having 3"+.. it's going to be rain here. There is a storm around 12-6 though, and maybe another later on.

The reason you have this impression is because it's run more often now, which provides more opportunity for error, but it is actually more accurate in the mean.

WB 18Z EPS: locking in to a 1-3 event NW.

Sorry, das Bullshit! Compared to what it was 8 yrs ago, the Frieken thing blows now! Period!

Don't worry, it will consolidate into a blizzard in time for that fat, bald dude to do his obnoxious siren video, and collect another 5,236 followers.