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BWI: 13.3 DCA: 10.5 IAD: 16.7 RIC: 8.8 SBY: 12.0

The fatal word of “delay”

Wow I didn’t see your numbers - almost exact.

Whew. Not often that I see an ensemble look that cold at range. The 12z GEFS looks similar, but with lighter blues. That is most of the continent. 384 map...so proceed with caution.

BWI: 11.1” DCA: 8.5” IAD: 12.8” RIC: 7.7” Tiebreaker (SBY): 9.0” mby I’m going 10.5”

The SER can probably arrange that. I should be careful about what I joke. Otherwise a bird in the hand sooner is always nice. If we get a Jan. thaw maybe February gives a winter encore. Kind of the Carvers Cossgrove hybrid winter. While La Nina is notorious for west first SER, the hemispheric pattern variability should deliver bouts of cold to the Southeast too.

Southeast ridge "trapping systems"? I would love to hear him explain how that works.

That's what i don't want to hear

Should I get excited about this winter? A lot of talk about below avg temps and above avg precipitation. Can't wait to start tracking again and eating popcorn watching people argue snowfall maps. This has been one boring summer/fall. Needs some weather excitement!

This is an example of "progress blindness" with underlying aspects of negativity bias, availability heuristic, and confirmation bias. Long-range ensembles have never been as reliable as they are now. At the same time, they are not now and never previously have been particularly useful for sub-continental-scale pattern forecasting beyond day 10.

Those numbers bode well up here/you as well as in Mappy's neck of the woods, on north. Pattern you posted screams more traditional Niña results i.e. a 40N winter. Which "used to mean" we "could" still pull out an event or 2 even with February H5 looking like what you posted. We'll see.

Anyways the Skynet ensembles have a much better H5 look towards the end vs EPS. Hopefully it’s right.

The guy talks about back breaking summer in late July from a CFS prog, then says winter “ain’t over till it’s over” because the gfs at hr 384 has a blue dot over Mount Pocono PA in late April. Get the eff out of here.

Most snow I ever had on 10/30 is 2011. RED FLAG

First melt of the season. I love it! Don't worry May 1st is right around the corner.

32.2

More garbage

You forgot one….”If it wasn’t for the frieken Scooter Shit streak.” Now it’s complete.

Lol... I was just going to respond to his email saying that this is one of your favorite phrases to say. Lol

I'd just as soon the cold arrive around/after December 7th, then hopefully give us 6 weeks into late January.

Definitely with an negative epo pattern

Yea, if it's snowing at 4'K in n VT, it will surely be great in DC. Idiot.

We’re definitely used to here with snow covering lush lawns.