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Adding to the bold ... RONI studies, which are hugely necessary and thank god imho, there has to be revamp in correlations - or evolution .. maybe not complete overhaul. I remember writing posts like jesus .. 15 years ago? In the end days of Eastern, that the ENSO cannot mean the same thing when the Hadely Cell is expanded. Most spurned the notion ... typical. There may have, and probably was, already research going on about the HC expansion ... but I hypothesized that on my own decades ago. It started in 1998 for me actually, at the tail end of the super nova El Nino ...when I noticed ( and came up with the "Miami Rule" ) that the heights over the Caribbean and adjacent SW Atlantic were failing to recede as far in the winters. It's subtle... like 3 to 5 measly hgh contours goes under the radar. But, that means the flow is compressing whenever troughs press east across the continent. That compression means higher geostrophic base wind velocity and guess what ...that's been verified(ing) ever since. And it's gotten worse. This is not merely ENSO...as it is observed regardless of cool and warm phases.

Waiting on the CME arrival to know for sure what we are dealing with.

Hope you didn't ruin winter by going to put out the stakes earlier.........lol

How's tonight looking?

We will see if the much anticipated 3rd CME puts on a show again for this evening! We may have to nervously await sunset if it does in fact hit at midday. May 2024 was a daytime hit initially as an FYI so that doesn't mean all hope is lost.

That looks like an early version of our December 5th clippers from year’s past.

The good news to keep in mind is when May 2024 occurred it was a midday hit and persisted well into the night. So all is not lost if that is the case, especially since the days are short now.

Sigh….You know it’s been slow when that argument last week was the most exciting thing to happen here in months

Well stated, and I completely agree with the bolded as that can translate with respect to ENSO as well. I think alot of thinking and ideas out there when it comes to ENSO and impact to global regime are based off ideas from like the 1980's through early 2000's. Our wealth of knowledge, data, and event have grown substantially. In fact, I even think ENSO state may be overplayed, particularly if it is a weaker or even a moderate event (depending on how coupled). I think one issue here is we are too married to the CPC definition of ENSO...there are something like 50 published definitions on ENSO. There is more to it too then just what the SSTAs are.

Yeah Pacific helping to shred this. Ity's no big deal...just sort of laughed seeing it shred. Maybe the Euro op and AI offer some hope beyond that....but that is fantasy land.

Just caught that

Oh I mean that pretty stuff decorating the landscape. I feel like I should recall it.

Saranac Lake

yeah,... i didn't wanna get into that in the longer diatribe about the pacific i composed and hour ago ( seeing as everyone's gonna read it -) but these NAOs ... i just really hate them. it's always been a voodoo index, based upon earlier research in the middle part of last century... that no one really bothered to actually intimately understand. then, fell asleep at the meteorological wheel for a couple of decades, only to come roaring back in the heady heydays of TWC showcasing. i blame them for graphics shock and wooing people with it. like an amazing thing "north atlantic oscillation ation ation ation" zomb! but even Heather Archembault's statistical review 30 years ago said that it was weakly correlated. in reality, few understood(stand) it. there is only a narrow spatial and spatial-temporal ( both have to be right) circumstance when and where that index means what the popularity was led to believe it means. and it is different for each, D.C., Boston, and Caribou. it's a moving parts access. it's like a train rolling by and you got one chance to leap on board, or you bounce of the side and probably break a leg - for this context, your heart. it's tedious to explain for a twitter'ed down "focus" group audience ... so forget it. but the primary storm and cold ( both ) loading pattern has always been the delta(pna) modal states - which it should... forcing on earth is not actually e-->w... it's w-->e. all naos are, are indicators (only) that a given storm and/or cold might get positive or negative interference. what you're saying above? that modulation in this case is a basically telling us that there is background neg interference. sorry just venting

If we can fire up some Miller Bs that don’t develop too late, NYC has a chance at 20”. There very likely won’t be Miller As during a Nina, and clippers as we’ve seen have largely died out. Maybe a lucky SWFE can tack on 4-6” like the one last winter. But that’s really NYC’s path to anything near normal in this regime.

Remind me what that is again? I've seen and heard stories about it.

Pretty uncommon for short-range oscillations like the PNA to remain strongly in either state for a whole month. I wouldn't put too much weight on this negative flip, though it might explain the great lakes track that seems more likely during the latter half of nov. and perhaps during the first week of dec.

Agreed, it gets overstated way too much, especially wen it comes to worrying which phase the NAO is in. I get that a -NAO has a higher correlation to cold/snow versus a +NAO, but it's not a significantly higher correlation. What's most important is the structure of the NAO, placement of the pressure anomalies, and how the NAO is transitioning. I believe there is a much stronger correlation to snowfall with respect to a transitioning NAO versus a static state NAO

Warm waters into the W pac. from this westerly wind burst are priming the ENSO for a real shift come the next big event.

I promise not to clog the thread lol but did want to share these here. It’s so weird to have today feel like January. Just a whole different world up here. I don’t have a good measuring spot yet but will try to get a snow board today. Been around 3” in the last few days.

I'm not talking about anything beyond day 7 fantasy. Maybe he is.

I don't recall it at all. I only knew about last night's due to social media. Didn't really exist back then.

Watch it slip away.

I might not be able to work today It feels like January. Whole different world.