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I already miss the frigid airmass we had for the late Jan blizzard. One of the few times I've seen pre-storm flurries seriously accumulate. Get a low pressure system reeled into the west a little from what models are showing for this storm with that airmass in place and you immediately have a top 5 blockbuster

Lol

There it is... up under LI boom

Ukie north finally

Visibility below 1/4mi now. It is dumping.

I know damn well where I live

We going to sizzler

Where is Chuck? I got a fever, and the only prescription.. is more +PNA baby!

That’s just nuts for an ensemble.

Blizzard watches no longer exist.

Sitting back and staring at the gfs with wide eyes

Actually I think AccuWx makes the call for all of them. I remember Herb and one of our classic NW storms. People must have been calling the station asking if they’d get rain or snow. The next time Herb gave his update he said, “If you don’t know where you live, buy a map! That’s what they’re there for.”

Here’s an actual good analog: 2/1966

This has the feel of being one of those times where the GFS is on track and the other models will catch up. Not saying GFS is 100% correct but any sort of weighted compromise between it and various other guidance still gives a big outcome.

GFS didn't roundly better - so far - no argument. We'll see how it finally verifies before rendering the final comparison. Having said that, in fairness, the other models have come or are coming around, in time. Let's not get crazy. It's day 3/4 and we have this going on. It's not like these other guidance dawn on the day and waited until that 7 am run to collapse in favor of an outlier.

When does this start Sunday? Im on a cruise and flying home from miami on Sunday at 230pm . I hope I dont get trapped down here

Channel 10 NBC as of now: 3-6 in city, 6-10 south and east. Gonna go up!

True true. Without blocking i feel like this could trend NW more and screw the coastal areas. Won't affect us much but im curious to see how this plays out.

Why would you even believe in what they put out anyway. How many times in any given month are they really decent? Except maybe for "No chance" precip hole in the SW sub LOL

That and the wind will be big stories but there lots of folks with just snow goggles on which is somewhat understandable if they don't live along the coast.

I was gonna ask about the technical discussion Any analogs apply to this kind of setup?

It was well written. Nicely done.

@dendriteSorry!

Winter Storm Watch in York .

Well been grinding on Super Bowl and Olympics so I'd love nothing better than to leave Sunday evening and go home - crack a few dozen cold ones and watch the powder pile and drift!! Bring it!!!!