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Need better meridional flow. Ridge out west getting cut off at the top

06Z GFS giveth, 12Z GFS taketh away.

Patience is sooo 2024.

NS is screaming! Maybe we can cash in on a good old fashioned Saskatchewan Screamer

Next weekend feels like it's gonna hurt feelings more...it looks like the makings of a potential Miller Too Late storm that could give some in the northeast their first warning snowfall in awhile. But I could be wrong, though

AI GFS

Current longer range guidance differs significantly as to what the pattern does just beyond mid-month. ECAI wants nothing to do with any kind of a notable moderation in temperatures. It keeps the cold locked and loaded through Christmas. Other guidance relaxes the cold but nothing suggests any kind of a Christmas torch this year. We'll see. Modeled forecasts of warm ups have been either wrong or muted for the most part since back in October. Snowfall prospects much more uncertain but I'd favor persistence and lean toward possible light clipper / frontal passage events. Don't see any solid evidence at this point in the longer range of anything major 4-8"+. In general I'd favor overall below normal precipitation for the next 7-10 days. Colder and generally dry pattern looks to dominate.

This is how we roll around these parts. Frustrating, for sure, but it is just the way it tends to be. I suspect that in the middle of the frustration, another, little, surprise event will start to materialize. If not, we go back to chasing pink unicorns in the future. C'est la vie.

Yep. Snow on snow up that way.

29.5 with lots of ice around on trees! .

Miss one south , then north. Next Fridays clipper has evaporated. Fun times

Usually rain. Looks like a snow game in Buffalo.

FWIW the 12z GFS a jump north compared to 6z GFS

If we have high pressure in place to lock in the cold, everything is suppressed. When the high pressure recedes we get 34 degrees and rain. Dc metro is just brutal for snow lovers. .

The 12Z GFS solution is coming in with a nice hit.

Someone years ago, maybe @donsutherland1, ran an analysis and there’s actually higher precipitation around Dec 25 than other parts of the month.

Cold morning with -sd's along the shore and -10's inland with some -20's. Heavy sea smoke. Looking forward to some snow action starting tomorrow.

Deepest snow in chicago in nearly 5 years. Congrats, im jealous!

just like last winter

Which are y’all going with for Saturday’s (12/13) low? The GFS sticks out as much colder than the others at ATL with upper teens there, which tells me it’s likely too cold there. It has had a cold bias over snowcover in recent years (which is well above average in the Midwest). That’s probably a factor as I don’t know that that has been fixed. 6Z GFS: pipe busting cold with upper teens ATL/RDU: likely too cold 0Z Euro: slower with the cold and thus is much warmer on Sat AM with upper 30s: likely too warm though it has 20s the subsequent few days 0Z ICON: mid 20s RDU to upper 20s ATL: looks like a reasonable middle-ground 0Z CMC: coldest at RDU with mid teens (CMC has a well-known cold bias) though only down to mid 20s ATL 0Z UKMET: only down to low 30s though it has a warm bias/very likely too warm though it is headed for 20s on Sunday

The ICON evolution verbatim is what I fear with the mid month storm, if we are talking possibilities. West coast ridge collapses, and the trough in east doesn't dig much. And the storm develops late well east of Maine. Let's see what the big boy models show Edit: I guess I was looking at the 14th.. The storm on the 12th looked a bit more promising though still well east and late developing Hopefully we hit on one of em!

I’m not using Dec 2022 as a heavily weighted analog because of snowcover. On this date in 2022, there was only 1% snowcover in the Midwest: Compare that to today’s 46%, the 3rd highest only to 2013’s and 2007’s 53% and just ahead of 2005’s 45%. The 2003-24 average is only ~15% meaning today’s is ~3 times the average: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html?region=Midwest&year=2025&month=12&day=7&units=e

Anyone have southern Va/northern NC on their to get more snow than us in December poll? Lol