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Ggem is so far north with that storm compared to the other models currently.

Yeah, life in the lowlands

I'd buy the median on the GEFS through the weekend. About 50/50 what comes Friday vs. Sunday

Bonus for sure IMO, for MBY area. Anything before the end of the month has always been seen as a bonus to me. I wonder how many who whine about it are quite a bit younger. Heading towards, 60 I've seen more than my share of duds in SNE!

ICON's taking a stab at the 00z Euro notion on this 12z run fwiw -

We thought @BxEnginesaid you aren't posting in here till March ?

I went into their thread right after the back to back Monster snowstorms in 09-10 asking if some folks really had up to four feet on the level and I was told to go back to my forum and stay out of theirs. I had heard some places just outside of Baltimore had accomplished that incredible feat.

overnight low of 11, so the coldest temp so far this season.

That's the thing too...there are way too many products out there (which are not even NCEP products, just derived products from 3rd party vendors) which everyone flocks too and leads to unnecessary hype and unrealistic expectations. This includes snow maps, precipitation type maps, supercell composite parameter, significant tornado parameter, etc. If snow maps were never created, probably 85% of extended storms would garner little interest outside of the, "Oh look the GFS has an HECS at D10". Now, folks see a 8 day 24 HR snow map which 20-30 inches and all of a sudden, "there's a real threat". Same goes with severe...so many events in the midwest now are labeled with having potential to produce numerous tornadoes and strong/violent tornadoes because STP is forecast to be 5 or SCP is forecast to be 20.

12z high res models are pretty snowy for the higher elevations east of the city. Wonder how long we can hang on to snow tomorrow before changing to rain.

It’s kinda funny looking back at those charts I posted during the 80s. The first week of Dec in those decades were relatively warm minus 1989. Of course the scripts flipped in Jan many of those years including Jan 1990 which flipped warm.

its the 80s all over again but worse

Northern Virginia left out of this one

Snow twice within 5 days in the piedmont of VA where my dad lives is extremely rare. While we get nothing. It’s like when Pensacola Florida got 10” the misery keeps going

I remember delivering newspapers in seventh grade in minus two temps with a freshening northerly breeze so wc had to be minus 25 or more on a Saturday morning in January and pretty sure the ground was bare

My average high since 11/1 is 48.8. Great stretch IMO for this time of the year.

I miss the old days of little access to models, things were more of a surprise when they happened and less of a disappointment when they didn't. I mean, I know I am the same way, I might get 12 inches of snow, but feel empty because the models were showing 18....before I feel like I can't enjoy the fact that it is snowing most of the time because expectations take over. Sure I could just leave the board and stay away from the models 4 times per day, but it is an addiction with no help, lol

I mentioned it the other day, well I had originally thought it was 80-81 before @tamarackcorrected me . It might be my favorite winter. It seemed to snow a couple of times a week and stayed pretty cold throughout. At one point, our 4' electric fences were buried.

Good luck with all that. This looks very similar to last winter with cold/dry and limited precip overall.

Nothing like a good international screwing.

Like Will said, maybe some sort of a compromise. Hell I’d take the Icon despite riding the rain line. At least it’s not grinded to pieces on all models. Hopefully euro and its T100 brother have it.

I’ll never forget there was some suppressed storm years ago in the Mid-Atlantic, and somebody from RIC posted about southern VA getting crushed in the main tracking thread. They almost started a civil war lol.

This Sun system is really just a vigorous shortwave moving in a fast chaotic pattern. There’s a chance we’re close enough north of it to be snowy, but also a chance it’s more suppressed crap or too amped. We won’t really know until within 72hrs or maybe even 60. Depends on the placement of the incoming arctic blast/trough and track of the shortwave as it comes in.