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This secondary push of cold air is legit. Mesonet soil temperatures west of the suburbs are about to dip into the upper 30s.

Gonna put this here too.. The uber northwest all rain solution just seems unlikely to me

Maybe I sound weenie but I'll say it: When the Euro and GFS disagree on a storm like this, 9 times out of 10 the Euro will end up being correct

DVN going all in with amounts generally 13 inches or more in the point forecast at locations near the QC. I would probably play it a bit more conservative with 8-12 with isolated higher amounts. Kind of splitting hairs though really as once you get over 8 inches it's a lot of snow regardless.

WB 18Z ensembles for early next week.

I think someone else should post MU'S thoughts for each winter event this season. That way I'm not always the bad guy. Suffice to say, he's not onboard for Tuesday for the LSV. He's expecting a significant move north with the storm track leading into the event, citing climo, the axis of the ridge out west plus an unfavorable NAO.

This idea of the cold not being locked in and the high moving east was the theme of the winter last few years so nothing has really changed for this year yet outside of below normal temperatures right now.

Euro .

For real. I’d like to think the overnight shift would come in and hoist a warning for their entire area with the exception of maybe Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac counties. EDIT: Actually after checking over that way, nah.. warning area wide would be wise. 6-8” all the way up to Port Austin.

How about NYC? Asking for a friend.

18z euro AI eps gives the coast and inland a few inches.

18z euro AI eps gives the coast and just inland a few inches.

Missed it by 6-7 miles?

TAN jacked and Foxboro grazed?

At this point, I won't be disappointed if we don't get snow Tuesday, although it would be nice. I'm more intrigued on which camp is going to be correct, GFS or Euro and its crew.

Translation: Euro would get most of EMATT on the board.

Insane differences

Looks like tomorrow morning. RAOBs are closer to 11z though so I would feel more confident with the 00z runs tomorrow.

Euro would get most in SNE on the board

What's the snow map look like with this latest run?

MJO Phases 7 & 8 & both really good as you move into DEC. Phase 6 is good in DEC until 2nd half of DEC. Phase 7 & 8 gets better each week as you progress into DEC. Phase 7 starts getting worse as you get into JAN. https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

I hate to be that guy, but when is this wave onshore for better sampling, tomorrow afternoon?

18z euro is south. Gotta get that post in.

Just as long as we can keep the cold, it looks promising. 45 mph gusts today…definitely not normal wind.