All Activity

The red pillars were naked eye visible, couldn't believe it! Hoping tonight is even better, but we'll see.

The cool departures EWR: 11/11 : 42/ 33 (-10) NYC: 11/11: 41 / 22 (-12) LGA: 11/11: 43 / 34 (-13) JFK: 11/11: 42 / 33 (-10) TTN: 11/11: 42 / 30 (-10)

Records: Highs: EWR: 74 (2022) NYC: 76 (1879) LGA: 69 (2022) JFK: 72 (2022) Lows: EWR: 25 (2019) NYC: 25 (2019) LGA: 27 (2019) JFK: 25 (2019) Historical: 1906 - The mercury soared to 106 degrees at Craftonville, CA, a November record for the U.S. (The Weather Channel) 1959 - Between Noon on the 11th and Noon on the 12th, a winter storm buried Helena, MT, under 21.5 inches of snow, which surpassed their previous 24 hour record by seven inches. (The Weather Channel) 1968 - A severe coastal storm produced high winds and record early snows from Georgia to Maine. Winds reached 90 mph in Massachusetts, and ten inches of snow blanketed interior Maine. (David Ludlum) 1974 - A great Alaska storm in the Bering Sea caused the worst coastal flooding of memory at Nome AK with a tide of 13.2 feet. The flooding caused 12 million dollars damage, however no lives are lost. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Heavy snow spread across much of New England. Totals in Massachusetts ranged up to 14 inches in Plymouth County. The seven inch total at the Logan Airport in Boston was their highest of record for so early in the season, and the 9.7 inch total at Providence RI was a record for November. Roads were clogged with traffic and made impassable as snowplow operators were caught unprepared for the early season snowstorm. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in the Lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Bovina MS. Morning thunderstorms drenched Atlanta TX with more than four inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thirty-three cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast Region. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Scottsbluff NE was a record for November, and highs of 76 degrees at Rapid City SD and 81 degrees at Chattanooga TN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1993 A winter storm moved through the area on November 12th and 13th. A wintry mix of precipitation in the form of freezing rain, sleet, and snow began during the afternoon on the 12th in western portions of Minnesota, while heavy snow fell in a swath from southwest South Dakota through central and northeast parts of the state, with generally four to eight inches reported. Freezing rain also preceded the snow in south-central South Dakota. Significant accumulation of ice occurred within about a 70-mile wide area from west central Minnesota into the Arrowhead region. Up to five inches of snow fell on top of the ice, making travel extremely hazardous. In South Dakota, locally heavier snowfall amounts included 12 inches at Midland and 10 inches central Hughes County. Several schools and other community events were closed due to the ice and snow. In south central South Dakota, trees were damaged by heavy ice, some of which fell on power lines, causing an outage. Other snowfall amounts include; 8.0 inches in Blunt; 7.0 inches in Murdo and near Victor; and 6.0 inches near Onida, Faulkton, Highmore, and Leola. 2003 - Thunderstorms developed in southern California and produced torrential downpours across parts of the Los Angeles area. More than 5 inches of rain fell in just 2 hours in southern Los Angeles, producing severe urban flooding. Small hail also accompanied the storms, accumulating several inches deep in some areas of the city. Nearly 115,000 electrical customers lost power as the storms affected the area (Associated Press).

12z mesos look dicey on central Md cloud cover. Better for NoVA and southern MD.

44 / 28 clouds holding tight. Warmer tomorrow and then a bit back and forth towards / after mid month overall near / warmer than normal.

What In the sam hell?

Wow, that is crazy for Florida

It’s just light dinky stuff.

Took this at 9:13 PM EST last night from Florida From my folk in Fleetwood around the same time:

Great stuff, Don! Since I had seen similar results in looking at the following for RDU big snows, I figured you and others might find this interesting: 21 RDU 6”+ snowstorms since 1950 (Niña or -neutral ENSO bolded)1/19/1955 Niña neut PNA, neut AO, moderate -NAO12/11/1958 mod +PNA, neut AO and NAO3/2-3/1960 mod -PNA, neut AO and NAO3/9/1960 weak -PNA, strong -AO, neutral NAO2/26/1963 -neutral strong +PNA, mod +AO, neutral NAO1/26/1966 neut PNA, strong -AO and -NAO2/9/1967 -neutral mod +PNA, weak +AO, moderate +NAO3/1/1969 strong +PNA/-AO, moderate -NAO1/7-8/1973 weak +PNA, neut AO, strong -NAO2/18-9/1979 neut PNA/AO/NAO3/1-2/1980 neut PNA/AO, moderate +NAO3/24/1983 mod +PNA/-AO, neutral NAO2/6/1984 -neutral mod +PNA/+AO, strong +NAO1/7/1988 mod +PNA, neut AO, weak +NAO2/17-8/1989 Niña neut PNA, strong +AO/+NAO1/24-5/2000 Niña mod +PNA, neut AO, moderate -NAO1/2-3/2002 -neutral strong +PNA, neut AO, moderate -NAO2/26-7/2004 neut PNA, strong -AO, weak -NAO12/26/2010 Niña weak -PNA, strong -AO, moderate -NAO1/17/2018 Niña neut PNA, weak +AO, strong +NAO12/9-10/2018 mod +PNA, neut AO, moderate +NAO—————————For the 21 storms-11 (52%) +PNA, 7 (33%) neutral PNA, 3 (14%) -PNA-7 (33%) +NAO, 6 (29%) neutral NAO, 8 (38%) -NAOSo, whereas 52% had a +PNA vs only 14% with a -PNA, 38% had a -NAO vs 33% with a +NAOSo, whereas there were almost 4 times as many with a +PNA vs a -PNA, -NAO vs +NAO has been much more balanced.————The above is for all ENSO.What about for just -ENSO?-5 (56%) +PNA, 3 (33%) neutral PNA, 1 (5%) -PNA-4 (44%) +NAO, 1 (11%) neutral NAO, 4 (44%) -NAOSo, whereas 56% had a +PNA vs only 5% with a -PNA, 44% had a -NAO vs 44% with a +NAOSo, whereas there were 5 times as many with a +PNA vs a -PNA, -NAO vs +NAO has been totally balanced. ————— I found similar results for Greensboro and Atlanta. Bottom line: in the SE US, a +PNA is a bigger driver of big snowstorms than is a -NAO.Daily PNA link: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii Daily NAO link: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii ———— *Edit: Interestingly, looking back at big storms at RDU and GSO, the last 6 (2014-18) were all with a moderate to strong +NAO!! So, there hasn’t been even one 6”+ snow at either RDU or GSO with a -NAO (even a weak one) since way back on 12/26/2010!! This could, of course, be from randomness. But I’m not sure about that considering what @bluewavehas said about -NAO ridges tending to hook up with SE ridges more often than in the past. Hmmmm….

Hearing on social media that tonight’s solar storm could be even more intense than last night. It looks like there will be some clouds around but nothing to significantly impede aurora viewing.

IMO, the expansion of the western Pacific warm pool (which Ray did a great discussion on within his winter outlook, which I will hopefully finish reading today or tomorrow and comment on) in recent decades probably elicits far more weight on the global regime versus ENSO (maybe even a stronger ENSO event) given the expansion of 29-30C SSTs which is going to contribute to a great deal of convection and latent heat release...oh and add in the regime of the WHWP.

Find me some weather excitement.

Clouds here last night. Hope this eve will be good.

Our low was 34 at 4 am and the temps been rising ever since. 11 am and it's up to 53 already. Yesterday had a high of only 48 with full sunshine.

Being that my grandparents lived in Rainelle or Quinwood for 40 years I feel I can throw a 'shade' of light on this. Rt 20 from Bellwood to Nettie either sits on or is JUST east of the first large ridge and then drop with the upslope. A LOT of squeezing of moisture happens there. I've seen 4" in Rainelle, 10" in Quinwood and a trace in Sam Black Church from the same event. There is a small place called Hines that was a cut-off (especially in marginal set-ups) where I've witnessed literally a line in/on Rt 60 for snow to dry several times. Snowshoe and Canaan have at least one decent ridge and fall into a valley before climbing again, especially with a more W or WNW wind. Thanksgiving and Christmas were ALWAYS a joy when I was younger, it meant a 90% chance of white on the ground. One Christmas we almost didn't make it, and the snow was as deep as the mailboxes! (that was in Quinwood) I think further northeast towards 'Shoe and Canaan they need a slightly different wind direction to get the really big snows and beat the Quinwood area. A NW to WNW wind seems to favor Quinwood, a NW/NNW seems to favor 'Shoe and north.

My best explanation is that the heart of the cold was aimed more toward your SW. Consider that GSP had 22, Macon had 25, and SAV/JAX had historic 28s! But from your area to the NE US, there was little (or no) record cold.

you seem very negative lately.

It was extremely cold yesterday, it’s hard to stay in the 40s with full sunshine in early November, but wind both nights wind and clouds kept us from dropping much despite the overall environment suggesting much colder temps. We failed to meet forecast lows both nights 30 (28) and 37 (32) at my house. Accumulating snow to the coast and record cold south and west of here justified the hype though. We may never see snow in some areas that received it again this early in the season, and that’s backed up by it being the earliest snow ever for some areas. Wouldn’t say it didn’t live up to hype just bc central NC didn’t get as cold as we were expected to given it overperformed south of here and the snow way over performed in mountains and in areas with those surprise bands

I'm right at the tail end of the spit of snow moving through. It's kind of like visible virga. There are micro flakes floating around, it almost looks like gnats. lol

Certainly seems that way. Little skill outlook, more so just climo, Nina and warming.

I've seen that long range snowfall monthly/seasonal anomaly map look like that a lot. And in reality over the last 20 years it has looked like that...look at some of the snowfall anomaly plots for this century. I think some of that is probably just the model reflecting the changes due to warming, and the fact that the "averages" it's using to calculate what is "normal" snowfall are lagging due to the warming. Look where the low and high anomalies are around the entire hemisphere. Higher anomalies to the north, lower along the south...what you would expect if climate zones were shifting north (which they are) in the means.

expanding this ( humorously ) further ... a lot of seasonal forecasters using ENSO in sale and promotion pitches lending to d-drip readers purchasing, and costing them "a lot of emotional money", too. LOL

Focus on Jan 2026 from Allan Huffman @RaleighWx I posted my winter forecast on my patreon page with reasoning last week. But I will post my maps here just for reference/accountability. Last year my winter forecast stunk so take it for what it is worth.

I think you're gonna get a 65-70°F day.