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Mountain folks getting buried by snow, meanwhile I'm still playing golf tournaments and wishing the season wouldn't end.

DCA: 12" BWI: 18" IAD: 19" RIC: 8" SBY: 8" MSY: T

As of 3.52pm PST - McCoy Station at 9600 feet has had some light snow. You can see it on the ground. But everyone below that is rain and deep mud. Mammoth is no longer opening Saturday. They don't know when, what with this humongous rain-filled storm. Contrast McCoy Station at 9,630 feet https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/mccoy-station with the Main Lodge https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge and Woolly Cam https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam Main Lodge and Woolly are at 8900-9000 feet and are a rainy muddy mess with nearby higher elevation snows melting fast. This huge moisture laden storm is a catastrophe for Opening Day with tons of fresh liquid rainfall.

Tomorrow and Saturday will see highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal through Saturday. Sunday could turn briefly milder before another cool air mass moves into the region. Some showers are possible on Sunday with the frontal passage, but rainfall totals will generally be under 0.25" in most parts of the region. Temperatures will again top out mainly in the middle and upper 40s through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,384th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -3.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.651 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yep. MJO taking control of the Bus. Blocking may mitigate the Heat in the East by squashing the SER. Hopefully that western trough doesn't dig too deep and help the SER hook up with the -NAO. Models are not showing that but after seeing that happen the last several Years it makes it a possibility.

I think SNE has to wait until mid December for any accumulating snow. I know that’s climo anyway but I just down see any early jump into winter outside of some passing BN temp days.

Nope not this year Get your shovels ready

Probably factoring the MJO. Crawling through 6 and into 7 by early December. Transition in 7 makes sense if the MJO is ruling the Roost. Continued blocking has become a bit of a Question for December now as some Data has backed off some.

Yes we don't want to get too cold suppression depression happens then. We also don't want the shreddar pattern either like we had last year. An interesting video from Met DT about December.

The now again closed off topic section of AMWX is a prime example. Some of the worst behavior I've witnessed took place over there. I literally cringed at some of the posts I'd seen.

The ultimate model "inverse can kick" period of all time was JFM 2014. It was uncanny

While understandably we are all focused on temps, I like that the weeklies are keeping us AN to normal with precip thru December. At least in the Mid Atlantic, dry is always a concern in Niñas, especially Decembers. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-tp?base_time=202511130000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511240000

Typical

Question was there a stratospheric warming event lately? Finding it interesting that interior Florida was having low temperatures Tuesday running 37-41 across south Central Florida and highs barely cracking 60f on November 12th at the same time it wasn't all that much colder / warmer here. Almost looked came across as cold air coming from aloft to the surface and then quickly leaving obviously stage right to the east and northeast.

Who knows , maybe he will be right. I mean he isnt the only one talking about a cold and active winter.

My shots from 11/11/2025 in Raleigh, NC: And then the lousy aerial from 11/12:

As things draw closer, even if the cold becomes less impressive, the following are plausible headlines from that account: “Get Ready: The Sudden Cold Blast That Will Shock Your Forecast!” “Temperatures Are About to Crash!” "The Temperature Plunge You Need to See to Believe.” As noted previously, social media is a veritable "Wild West" of meteorology information. There is no accountability. Clicks remain the single metric of value. Clickbait accounts are little more than the 21st century version of the 20th century's hawkers and hustlers. And, because these accounts deploy hyperbole to build enormous followings, it's no surprise that public perceptions of meteorology are distorted by the sensationalism.

The Euro Weeklies today use the first week as a transition week(as opposed to full blown cold) and repay us with cold the rest of the month. I am seeing a bit of a trend to dump cold in the west and then it spreads eastward. We have seen this trend on modeling(and it be correct) more times than I can count during the past decade. The 12z GEPS absolutely slams the cold into the West and it quickly spreads eastward. With all the bouncing around today, this may be a very wicked shot o cold air - lots of bouncing around with very cold air. It is worth noting that the Canadian model suite will often "see" the extreme of cold air first. While the Euro is sidestepping a bit, the GEFS and Canadian ensembles at 12z are quite cool. Remember it is shoulder season and possibly VERY cold air in the mix for December....so no surprise today.

Below are the Top 50 Snowstorms in Chester and SE Berks County History. Of note the 1960's had 8 of the Top 50 storms followed by the 2010's with 6 of our largest snowstorms. For folks that think we don't get snowstorms like the old days....we only need to go back to our last full decade! Of note so far here in the 2020's we have had only 1 storm in the Top 50 that one being the February 2021 storm that left 16.6" at East Nantmeal and 14.0" at Spring City.

Below are the Top 50 Snowstorms in Chester and SE Berks County History. Of note the 1960's had 8 of the Top 50 storms followed by the 2010's with 6 of our largest snowstorms. For folks that think we don't get snowstorms like the old days....we only need to go back to our last full decade! Of note so far here in the 2020's we have had only 1 storm in the Top 50 that one being the February 2021 storm that left 16.6" at East Nantmeal and 14.0" at Spring City.

How fun was that !!! Yee Foc’ing haw!

out of the 6 auroral events i've caught, this was probably 2nd (maybe 1st?) compared to october 10th of last year. Either way, really awesome experience, and i'm glad the clouds cooperated more than Tuesday night.