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1993-1994 to 2014-2015 was the golden age for snowfall at many locations with new all-time seasonal highs being set. A sweet spot between the colder and drier winter regime prior to this era. We had just enough warming to add moisture for all the record snows but not too much like over the last decade leading to the reduction in snowfall.

I’m starting to really doubt the MJO wave makes it past phase 6/7 before it dies and ends up back in the IO. I think it’s a combination of the record breaking -IOD and the rather healthy La Niña we have Saw a tweet this morning from someone who was perplexed at how weak the STJ has been….not really a shock with a Niña and the strong -PMM that has developed

28F Fourth morning I’ve been below 30.

Meanwhile 46 degrees at LGA haha

Upper 30s in eastern Queens

My coldest of the season so far at 33°.

The 1979 to 1993 period was a snowfall bonanza along the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston compared to 2019 to 2025 .That’s due to the colder storm tracks and overall colder winter pattern back then. These days we have to contend with warmer storm tracks and warmer winters. 1979 to 1993 average snowfall DCA….16.7” PHL….20.5” NYC….20.1” BOS….34.6” Avg…..23.0” 2019 to 2025 average snowfall DCA…8.5” PHL…10.5” NYC…14.9” BOS….26.6” Avg….15.1”

ORH at 29 this morning. And then there was 1…..

Down to 26F here in the valley in E CT; some decent morning cold this fall

Damn. I’m not sure my mental state could survive if the orioles went through what the jays did…

⁴29 this morning.

Another morning below freezing 29 right now

31 degrees this morning. House is 70 at least. Good morning to drink a pot of coffee.

My Peonies think its spring and there will be blooms soon...

Unless Will starts posting it’s fake

Columbia imby: October total rain 2.78”, of which 1.7” fell Oct 29-30.

First snow early next week?

now it is showing up on tonights run. First flakes of the year?

I leave a good amount behind. Some of that is by choice—it’s been great for summertime biodiversity in my backyard. I mulch as much as I can but full leaves work too if I put them near my tree line. Some of that is because the trees drop at different times and I don’t have the time or will to get back there several times in November. It’s beautiful in October, but a pain in November.

Flooding did occur. I just do not have access to anything official yet. Based on images, there was clearly a strong storm surge in the right-front quadrant. Also, the eastern areas of the island did not go unscathed as there was flash flooding off the ridges. But so far, I have not read any official numbers yet on either. Hopefully, as Melissa gained forward speed while crossing the island, mudflows due to flooding were mitigated somewhat. If anyone has anything official, please share.

My parents had one…works fine. I just mow short and mulch them in though. Glad we don’t live in suburbia.

As forecast, the snow levels with this most recent storm began to drop yesterday evening, and the higher elevations picked up some decent snow accumulations by morning. The views from Bolton’s Base Lodge Webcam seemed to suggest just an inch or two of accumulation at 2,000’, and their Vista Summit Webcam was covered in snow, but the Allyn’s Lodge Snow Stake Cam at Sugarbush suggested that there were some decent accumulations around 3,000’. So, I decided to head up to Bolton Valley to at least get in a hike in the snow and check out the actual accumulations in person. The snow levels with this storm definitely didn’t make it down to the lower valleys, and even the local 2,000’ peaks surrounding the Winooski Valley in this area didn’t seem to have any visible accumulations. Those observations left me wondering just how high the snow levels had been, but it was clear as I ascended the Bolton Valley Access Road that the spine of the Greens had done better than some of the other surrounding areas. On my ascent toward Bolton Valley, I saw the first traces of snow around 1,200’, and up at the main base at 2,000’, accumulations were definitely more substantial than what the webcam had suggested. There was plenty of wind with this storm, and while exposed areas may have only accumulated an inch or two of snow, areas out of the wind held 3 to 4 inches of dense coverage. I started hiking the Wilderness Uphill Route with my skis on my pack, but within a couple of minutes I pulled out my skins and started skinning. It was clear that there was more than enough coverage to be skinning instead of walking if you wanted to, and there was a skin track in place as well. Accumulations increased all the way up to near the 3,000’ elevation range, but much like what the Sugarbush webcams had shown, where the 3,125’ stake had 5 inches of snow and the 3,900’ stake showed less than an inch of snow, accumulations sort of fell off as you hit the ridgelines above 3,000’. It must have been those winds – they really pounded and scoured the upper elevations relative to those middle elevations. Here's the snow accumulations profile I observed today in the Bolton Valley area during my tour in the midday period: 1,000’: 0” 1,200: T” 1,500’: T-1” 2,000’: 1-4” 2,500’: 4-6” 3,000’: 7-11” The forecast today suggested that at above 2,000’ the temperature was never going to go above freezing, and I’d say that’s what I observed. The temperature at 2,000’ was right around freezing and the snow there was a bit denser and softer, then in the middle elevations it was denser and colder with some upside-down consistency, and them up around 3,000’ the temperatures were well below freezing and the snow was notably drier. It was still on the denser side, but it didn’t have that upside-down feeling of the middle elevations and turns were easier. When I finished my ski tour and got back to my car, I saw that I’d missed a call from my younger son, so I called him back and he said that he and his crew from UVM were just at the base of the access road on their way up. So, I hung out for a bit, met them when they arrived at the base, and gave them the beta on everything I’d found on my tour. They subsequently had quite a fun tour of their own based on the video footage I saw later when they swung by the house, so it was great to see that everyone had a safe outing, and they kicked off their ski season with style!

whiteface making snow! early start

Indeed – he was there getting pictures of his bike in the snow when I was checking the cam for accumulations this morning, so I had to grab a still with him in it. It’s such a great Vermont change of seasons vibe, and you can’t help but imagine him in that pose standing there going “Huh.” It’s so on point though – I literary changed out my bike rack for my ski rack on the car today before I headed up to the hill.