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You can see it because the earth is flat.

The main diff was that Feb of 2011 had a strongly +AO/NAO. Of DJF, F is often the warmest in La Nina.

I'm always surprised by the fact that the winter of 2010-11 didn't end up colder than the winter of 2009-10, especially considering that 10-11 was a strong la nina and 09-10 was a strong el nino.

For those who may not realize this: The # of FFWs going up by a factor of ~5 over the last 40 years isn’t by any means just due to CC: Here’s why record-high flash flood warnings were issued in U.S. this year Rachel Dobkin Thu, July 17, 2025 There has been a record-high number of flash flood warnings issued in the U.S. this year, which can be linked to climate change and improved weather systems. Climate change can make river floods larger or more frequent in some places, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. But one expert explained another reason why there are more flash flood alerts than ever before. Amir AghaKouchak, director of the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing at the University of California, Irvine, told NBC News radar systems and weather models have significantly improved over the last 40 years. “The system that was implemented back in the ‘80s is not the same as the system that we have now,” he said. “We have many, many more radars, and we have many different sources of data.” “So naturally you expect more warnings just because our systems are getting better and better,” the expert added. https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-record-high-flash-flood-000109408.html

TEMP 85F/DP 72/RH 68%

Greatest aerial coverage of storms today should be from interior Maine southwest across southern New Hampshire and into northern Mass. Will be stuff farther south but probably more isolated but we may be able to build a line into northeast Connecticut as the stronger forcing slides southeast early this evening.

We’ve literally had cells blow up over my house 3 straight days but the big deal was that large storm that came through yesterday evening. As rainy as it’s been here some areas west of here have double what I do bc of the tropical system that missed my backyard mostly. That makes this months rain more impressive to me bc all but about 1/2 an inch has come from afternoon storms and not a tropical system. I haven’t had to water the yard since the calendar flipped to July

@bluewaveI'm not sure it's entirely fair to use data back to 1895 when determining what constitutes cold in our contemporary climate.....clearly all that was implied was that last year was "colder" relative to the current climo base. No one argued it would have been cold using older climo. The point is it took more than merely a "mismatch month" to be even near normal using the 1991-2020 climo base. Citing how it ranked in history to data back to the 1800s seems like a deflection to me. No one is arguing against GW....the argument is that last season was colder than expected relative to modern standards, which ironically enough, tacitly acknowledges climate change. I feel like it will be helpful for you to simply lay out specific seasonal temp ranges for winter per 1991-2020 climo during the fall if you want to remove any ambiguity like this after the fact. Pointing out how the season ranked back to 1895 to defend your nebulous forecast seems less than ideal and only likely to further obfuscate.

It rained for about 90 seconds.

I’ve been super busy this summer so forgot to issue a forecast but I’ll run the numbers later this week retroactive to July 1st to see what it would’ve been but just glancing at it, we wouldn’t have predicted a new record low min. Right now, area is running 8th lowest. Forecast looks pretty favorable for good melt in the coming week so a top 5 melt season is still on the table. We’d need to set a new record for loss from this date though to finish lower than 2012.

This is what I a saying only from a different angle. The internet is a conduit for raw, visceral, emotional responses that are more tempered when you are staring someone in the face...so in a sense, it is more genuine, which is not always conducive to entirely constructive dialogue....this is why social media has devolved into such a cesspool. We tend to edit our responses to remove some of the emotion more easily when looking someone in the eye...that emotional threshold at which we lose the filter is much higher in person than it is in the internet. Regardless, some people have greater degrees of emotional regulation, which is true on both the internet and in person...just that said threshold will always be lower in a given individual behind the cyber-vale of anonymity. Obviously a forum like this is a step up from social media because many of us have known one another for decades and have in fact met in person, which alters the dynamic a bit, but still different from actual face-face exchanges.

Wondering if we get caught between the stuff on the south coast in up in MA; sun wants to break out down here but it’s still mostly cloudy

Back in the tropics. 83/74

this is 14z, fairly similar for your hood

Very sunny here in Garwood. Disgusting outside.

Can you post it?

Currently 62 with fog and occasional nwf showers in Wolf. Loving it! Caught a few before and after pics of yesterday afternoon's storms. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

13z hrrr gets your area pretty good iirc

yup...close but no cigar.

There was that one up near Plattsburgh, NY but yeah, not New England.

sort of like when you root for 60's and 70's during winter, no?

Glad I didn't waste my time watching the British Open. What a blow out.

That’s the one area that looks good

3k nam is pretty good central/east MA

Hope we can have a mainly dry weekend 26/27 if so it looks quite hot.