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There are people in my neighborhood who walk their dogs 3 times a day. The cold doesn't bother them because they are use to being outdoors when it is cold. Also mindset plays a role.

I think we will like the EPS. Huge degree day gain from 12z

PSV88, Rest assured, I have a thick skin. I don't take it personally. I hope he also remains here, too.

Ditto. The risk is that they jog north. I suspect they are under modeled. Besides, w/ phase 8 lurking after the 25th....I highly doubt this is our only window. I could make a pretty good case right now that we have a couple of really good windows in February.

19 days left in the month - plenty of cold air available and you are saying no snow with nothing to back it up with - amazing !

I'm sure something like that will happen again, many times. 2022 wasn't too far off just a slightly toned down version. Looking at the track it still surprises me that heavy snows weren't thrown back much farther W, 976 right over the BM or a hair SE. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-26-27-2015

MJO phases 1-2-3 centered on JFM are cold. The Weeklies yesterday were not warm. I have looked at them, and I looked at them again to be sure.

notice how you get more likes and less weenies when you post stuff like this? good job!

I made a perfectly legitimate point. Focus on that instead of me.

It’s following the underlying, overall theme of dryness/drought since the end of summer, 2024 and modeled storms either disappearing or underperforming with low QPF once we get closer in time. Again, I don’t think this repeating cycle breaks until the El Niño gets established this summer

Only one -35 or lower, Jan 16, 2009 Same day that Big Black River touched -50, to eclipse Van Buren's -48 for the state's coldest on record. Six lows of -30 or colder, most recent Jan 27, 2022. 73 lows of -20 or colder, most recent on Feb 4, 2023. 2023-24 and 2024-25 marked the first time for consecutive winters w/o a -20, though last Feb had a -19. Dec 9, 2025 got down to -18, earliest by 7 days to reach that cold.

why are you like this, dude

Just a random shower thought: This whole vort mess that's tangled up and been a pain for models.... is there a road where some of this mess turns into a 50/50 and suppresses a wave past.... let's say 200 hours or so?

Throw out January for snow. Hopefully this winter doesn't disprove the "snowy nina december" rule. Was a nice stat that helped us figure out if winter was gonna be trash or not. Guess it's just really really hard to get above normal in the park now.

This ECMWF chart below looks a lot like something "clawing at the back" of the east coast trof for the 18th. This perfectly illustrates my point about being cautious about preferring a later threat based on averaged ensemble height fields.

The EURO AI was onboard for a widespread 3-5 inches as well. It's usually super Dr. No. I think the Canadian lost it first, then the Euro AI lost it, with of course, the GFS holding on the longest.

oof...well I salut you

In this type of pattern models are not going to pick up on any storm threats till 5 - 7 days out and Clippers and Miller B's might prevail - not Gulf Lows for now ..but one never knows for sure

yeah that can certainly happen... i think early Feb looks pretty good, though, as the favorable tropical forcing should stick around for a bit based on hovmollers

Yes...sign me up!

I'm not saying wall-to-wall RNA throughout February...I'm saying it will average out negative in the monthly mean.

While I have no problem with going +PNA the rest of this month, I completely disagree that it goes into February. I see February as a -PNA dominated month

Even if its like 10-15F outside and with wind? That's what I am referring to with regards to cold.

The Iowa 1 inch threat may need a thread soon.

I have little doubt a return to colder is coming (I've been on that train for a while) but that ups the ante of storm suppression last third of the month. Could well be we switch to cold and dry. I'm not seeing anything that leads me to believe the STJ is going to get involved in any kind of significant way. A ways to go for sure but if it turns out just cold and dry last third of January I would not be surprised. For rest of this week dry and closer to seasonable than last week. Overall the dry pattern looks to persist for at least another week to 10 days.