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The mismatch thing is just an excuse to say even though all periods should be warm, some will still be cold because the mechanisms driving the warmth are actually only moderately strong correlation rather than direct cause. It's a bit like people predicting the stock market who always forecast record highs and growth because you get geometric real returns of 7-8% over long periods, even though some years still finish with negative annual returns. If it was winter right now, the cold Tropical Atlantic, relatively warm Nino 1.2 v. cool Nino 4 would imply a neutral AMO and a Modoki la Nina with the -PDO. You'd see huge dumps of cold alternating between the Plains and West. The precipitation pattern on the Canadian at the equator in winter looks most similar to MJO five for the winter, with four somewhat close too. I generally use SST indicators as a guideline for predicting the major indices in winter. You can see huge areas of the Atlantic and Pacific predict WPO behavior in winter in the Summer - and favor the +WPO which also favors Western cold in both Fall (Oct-Nov) and Feb-Apr. WPO also tends to 'bully' the NAO primary phase into place to some extent.

Right. The Models haven't been good depicting where the greatest likelihood of Storms will setup. Day before yesterday they had it over us, west to east. It ended up being further North along a London to Wise line with spreaded swath width about 50-75 miles North of that line. This Morning an area was further south than progged.

It was incredible. Also have never seen rain like that here.

Brief shower earlier, still nice sunset.

Ducks game was awesome. Perfect weather had a few seconds of spotty drizzle that’s about it

0.71", 4.56" month, 28.55" ytd

Just went gangbusters. That is one of the most vulnerable watersheds in Montgomery County. Terrain, loose soils and urbanization are tremendous stressors on that waterway.

Impressive indeed, but am i reading/understanding that graph wrong ? Too much work must be frying my brain - Or too much alcohol after work , Is College Park semi arid...? Is this a new recording station ? 1976 to 2025 ?

0.97” from the storm tonight, 8.13” for the month so far.

Ended up with just under 2.5 inches of rain. Five miles to my southeast got 5+ inches!

Wild pics from takoma park and silver spring. Sligo parkway was part of the creek today.

With how much rain there's been of late, I'd say that's a good thing. I hope it continues weakening. Doesn't look like a big rainmaker at this point in any event, although there are still some areas of embedded heavier downpours where I guess a quarter to half inch could fall.

That was from one of our county flood sensors near Sligo Creek Pkwy & New Hampshire Ave (MD 650). I've never seen water levels rise that quickly at that location. I actually wound up requesting the upgrade to a flash flood emergency. Our flood sensors inside the beltway just went bonkers so fast. Cabin John Branch, Rock Creek, Sligo Creek, and Northwest Branch just started raging in under half an hour. This was the worst flash flood event I have ever worked in my entire career. Had this persisted for just another 20 to 30 minutes, we would've had real problems in Montgomery County. The flood sensors we installed, combined with the Layhill and College Park mesonet sites raised alarm bells quickly, which resulted in us getting roads closed and water rescue assets staffed quickly. It was one of the few times in my career that I actually felt helpless as things went sideways.

See this kind of rhetoric is unnecessary. The NCEI trend for Southeast Lower Michigan is in close agreement with the Ann Arbor and Detroit data, with the exception that the mean temperature is somewhat below those sites (since the district as a whole is somewhat closer), even without any adjustments for discontinuities (location change) or changes in equipment or time of observations. Maybe a case could be made that the January trend is a little inflated, but all of these sites still show warming in January. And for the annual change, it's quite close to NCEI's numbers. It should be noted that there is NO time of observation bias in the Ann Arbor data - unlike most cooperative observers, they have maintained a consistent evening observation time. Of course, there's none in the Detroit data either (consistent midnight-midnight day, per Weather Bureau standards), but there are a couple of important site changes.

But there’s no good reason imho to not be that way online as long as most others are that way in their interactions. People look at this in different ways. Some say that the real person may show up better online because of less inhibition to be oneself. OTOH, there are many trolls online.

dew point temps up to 70 here

Hey Barry, He’s in my list of posters with a bearish bias. If you took an avg of bull cat5 and bear 57, do you think they’d average neutral? Interesting fact: When baby boomer 57 joined there, Gen. Zer cat5 was near birth! Cat5 was born near the time that board was born. As you can see I called out bias in these two cases despite big age diffs.

The mcs really broke/dried up by the time it got here. Just a trace of rain.

He had an insight that there tends to be a mismatch period from the prevailing MC forcing when the MJO is amplified in the MC during the month of October, as it was last year.

Highs EWR: 83 ISP: 83 LGA: 83 JFK: 82 * No intra hour high TEB: 82 PHL: 82 NYC: 81 New Brnswck: 80 ACY: 79 BLM: 79 TTN: 77

Getting slammed by storms

That's the beauty of meeting in person. We were as friendly as can be.

He's way too bearish NGL

I don't even get where he stressed that it would be a mis-match Winter. I think every year it is said, "there is also the chance that mismatch could occur at sometime if X and Y", but that's just being wishy-washy imo.

Another miserable July day. High of 96 with dew points around 80 most of the day