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The 12z EPS started to show RNA the tail end of this month into December. I believe the -PNA flip is definitely coming. I also don’t doubt the -AO/-NAO/-EPO/-WPO

February 2006 wasn't all that bad. At least we got a return to cold, and a snowstorm on the 11th-12th. I'd gladly sign up for that after the last 3 or 4 winters. But please, no repeat of 1989-90, when spring pretty much began in January.

Took a quick look 10 mins ago and was easy to see with naked eyes. 4 second exposure on this pic so obviously enhanced lol but I could see the red thru the branches with my eyes as well. Thought about running down to the lake for a big horizon pic but man it's windy and cold. Maybe tomorrow.

That and the peak of the next one will hit during the day

Hopefully the grid goes down tomorrow

A classic La Niña winter appears to be on the way. There will likely be some interesting developments, along the way, particularly if a sudden stratospheric warming event materializes in late November or early December. Then, the potential would exist for a cold end to December and possibly first half of January, if the polar vortex is displaced. Based on ENSO and the teleconnections, there is a signal for the coldest month relative to normal to be January in the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Perhaps the Arctic outbreak of November 10-11 that saw the coldest anomalies affect the Southeast offers a hint of how things might unfold in January. The C3S multi-model system appears to be quite aggressive with above normal temperatures. Last winter, there were some indications that it was too aggressive with the warmth, but I deferred to the guidance. That proved to be a bad mistake leading to an overly warm idea. This time, I am giving more weight to the analog cases for insight. The ECMWF seasonal forecast appears to be a better fit with the final cases I selected based on ENSO and the teleconnections. My selected comparison cases for Winter 2025-2026 are Winters 2016-2017, 2017-2018, 2021-2022, and 2024-2025. C3S Seasonal Forecasts: ECMWF: Analog Cases: ECMWF: December-February 500 mb Progression: Analog Cases: December-February 500 mb Progression: Select Snowfall Estimates: Albany: 45"-60" Baltimore: 10"-15" Binghamton: 80"-90" Boston: 35"-45" Buffalo: 85"-95" Burlington: 75"-85" Caribou: 110"-125" Chicago: 30"-40" Detroit: 40"-50" New York City: 15"-25" Newark: 15"-25" Philadelphia: 10"-20" St. Louis: 10"-15" Toronto: 100 cm - 125 cm Washington, DC: 8"-12"

High of 49 and currently 38. Insanely cold early November day with full sun

There’s some reflectivities racing across virginia. Maybe a few flakes will make it down…

I am a little worried about Jan and Feb in the 1989-90 and 2005-06 analogs. I do think there will be more -AO in Jan/Feb so we'll see how that goes.

Vivid naked eye aurora visible 10 minutes ago in Allentown!

You think? Long range models are showing more +PNA at the Day-15+ range. It's looking like a -WPO/-EPO wants to develop with a little +PNA under it. I don't see any signs of RNA on current long range models for late November, although I don't know if the Euro weeklies show that in Dec (It looks pretty neutral in the N. Pacific with the cold coming from west-based -NAO).

More of a southerly trajectory to the winds and CAA aloft ended.

By far the best northern lights I've ever seen.

Natural Gas December contract is up 25% in the last 3.5 weeks.. from $3.63 on 10/19 to $4.54 now.. It's moving because of the prospect for a cooler December. I've been saying if you know this stuff is coming, you can make money. It's not as factored in as you'd think. NG January: $4.75 NG February: $4.42 NG March: $3.95 I usually use $5.00 as the "even" mark.. under is warmer than average probability, over is colder than average, although there are a lot of factors that are included.. it's not 100% weather related. Also is more correlated to the NAO than the Pacific, since Europe is a big part of the market.

Phew

I agree...I think December is colder than January.

Totally forgot there was a chance. Seems some friends in the area saw it an hour ago.

lol at least it actually snows down there

Am I the only spot in the region that has clouds??? This is BS

Agree. I think RNA December, but January is the one +PNA month of the winter.

Beautiful! What’s that in the lower right corner? A house lit up?

Difference here is this is multiple flares… there are 3 coming. Tonight is the first and second, which might have essentially merged. Tomorrow is the third, which is also the stronger one. I definitely went out tonight because I didn’t want to count on a two-night feature, but real chance tomorrow as well.

That’s a real shame. I don’t think anyone has ever captured the aurora with a saguaro in the foreground before.

Yep, lawn furniture all over my backyard.