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GEFS AO forecasts: Just 4 days ago (11/28 run), it was forecasting the AO to be at +0.7 on Dec 7th (only 9 days out): Today’s run (12/2) has the Dec 7th AO way down to -2.3 or 3.0 lower than the run from a mere 4 days ago: Thus, even the ensemble means when looking out just 8-10 days have recently been missing high latitude blocking. So, for the time being, I’m taking the 11-14 day progs with more of a grain than usual.

Looks like the back edge of the snow is half hour away from me.

32⁰ light mist

Yes it does, Could rip 1-2"/hr rates when that's nearby.

Got a nice changeover back to snow about 2 hours ago up on the M/D. Ended up with 1.75 slushy inches. Not what I was hoping for but snow is snow, especially this early.

38° Moderate Rain Rain started 907am Zero Frozen

HRRR and RAP are showing it nicely. Longer duration too.

Latest HRRR pretty good for the boundary area of eastern Orange, northern Rockland, southern Dutchess etc... keeps ticking ever so slightly southeast... we'll see... areas to our south seem to have mixed or changed over in concert with the warmer models.

Well, we're getting the rain we all needed so badly lol. Radar suggest that most of the area might end up with an inch of rain today.

@40/70 Benchmark you should flip and pound later. Don’t forget to put that red gimp ball in my mouth while you do so.

Later yes.

Congrats.

I’m assuming that one over in Southern Vermont Northwestern Massachusetts will be the one that translates through my area over to your area

Just transitioned to sleet

Changed over to freezing rain and sleet here now, after about 2.75-3in of snow.

Steady snow in PQI, visibility down to about 1 mile from what I can tell, very surprised, might be a good sign of things to come.

You can see the area where the fronto bands will possibly set up later.

Thought we would have flipped by now, still all snow. Actually some stickage on the roads, maybe half inch so far.

That was never going to happen for us

route 8 is a mess north of thomaston probably quarter mile vis, and nice snow growth, flake size

Corning, NY: Source: https://www.earthcam.com/network/?page=NY&country=U

Sounds like a partial changeover to sleet in West Hanover Township.

Cool to see several meso lows over the lake...