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Weak Niña?

Very interesting Steve…very curious how this plays out, and if so, how it affects us here. Hopefully it doesn’t split and move into Siberia, or sit it’s fanny right on our faces either.

Wait, cold and wet, in a Niña?

Roommate is from there, born and raised. I have seen some really nice photos from that area. And it's always the cold spot (SLK).

It should be a good night for stargazing IMBY regardless, so I’ll be out anyway.

Nice sunset at least

Yeah I am going to give it a chance on a remote possibility.

I'll look more at the remainder of those winters later tonight. I'm about to go to the Tennessee game. I will say that January of 1970 was extremely cold and snowy. We were below zero 7 times, and in the single digits 5 more times for lows. Not just -1 either. -10s at times. We had 3 days below -10 and 20 days of snow on the ground.

Bz is strongly north so you're not gonna see shit anyway. Get that back to -35 like last night and then we can talk.

It will be interesting to see how that plays out. I have heard several long range forecasters favor a more severe winter for New England due to the combination of weak polar vortex and La Niña. It has been a fairly stormy fall pattern this year, very different to what we saw last year with a dry pattern until Feb. I am much more optimistic than usual, but like always we won’t know until it actually happens.

Bad news: THE THIRD CME HAS ARRIVED (UPDATED): The highly-anticipated 3rd CME has arrived. It struck Earth's magnetic field at approximately 1917 UTC on Nov. 12th. Our first impression of the impact: It was not strong enough to cause a repeat of last night's extreme aurora display. We are downgrading our storm forecast from category G4 (severe) to G2/G3 (moderate/strong). Aurora alerts: SMS Text.

Whatever. Gonna drive out to Loudoun and see what happens. Get dinner somewhere different if it doesn't pan out.

Yeah often times the much hyped additional round never works out.

Nice sunset though, oh well if that bZ flips maybe I’ll head out too.

We all suffer from a perception bias where we notice when someone gets anomalous weather but not all the times “nothing” is happening.

12-7-1961 was two days after we hit 65 degrees, the warmest temperature of the month. It bounced around a little for the next few weeks. It was 38/13 on the 9th. It was 59/46 on the 12th as a cold front approached. It was 60 on the 13th but the low was 19 just before midnight. It was in the 30s for the high on the 14th. It warmed through the 20th. Christmas was cold, with an unofficial White Christmas, since it was 3/4ths inch of snow and not one inch. A major cold front passed on the 27th, which briefly saw warming ahead of the front. From 33 for the high on the 26th, up to 52 on the 27th. An Arctic front passed and squeezed out 1.5 inches of snow with a high of 27 on the 28th. It was below 0 the next two mornings. It warmed to 34 on New Years eve and snowed 4 inches. 1967 it was the start of almost two weeks of well AN temps. It flipped two days before Christmas, with a high of 39 on the 23rd. (It was 69 on the 20th). Christmas was 40s/20s. Big cold arrived just after Christmas. 30s and 10s. 8 inches of snow on December 28th. 30s and single digit lows to close the year. November 1969 it was basically normal temps for the period with a quick cold/snow system on the 14th. It snowed 3 inches. The low was 9 on the 15th. We rode the roller coaster between normal and below normal temps the rest of the month. A big rain system ended as snow on the 19th/20th and it covered the ground. November ended cold, around 10 degrees below normal the last couple of days.

https://pix11.com/weather/rare-november-polar-event-brewing-high-above-the-northern-hemisphere/?fbclid=IwdGRjcAOB35RleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBzcnRjBmFwcF9pZAwzNTA2ODU1MzE3MjgAAR4RFB3Tl9cViuycaQaRBQzZsCvGJYeM6M5ZuXzB6yEtRYk1PnPyT-QB3PjoOg_aem_WzC8-WC72b5jdiqjbQ8nOw

The CoCoRahs website lets you do 90-day custom maps. I set it for Dec 15 - Mar 15, because that is a pretty good sense of climo. Any storms outside of that window would be missed in my analysis. The favored regions each winter were: 2024/25 - South and east 2023/24 - Central (MoCo through Baltimore) 2022/23 - Everyone lost 2021/22 - Fairly uniform, south a bit better than north 2020/21 - North had a dominant advantage 2019/20 - Another dead-ratter. Better north, but we're talking 4-6" vs 0-2". 2018/19 - North and central much better. Hwy 50 as a dividing line 2017/18 - Best in the north and east. Another sub-10" dud for most. 2016/17 - Marginally better north, yet another sub-10" year for most. 2015/16 - Almost everyone got to party! MoCo with some of the biggest totals. So, obviously it is better to be north over the long run and they had a nice advantage in the 5 winters post the 2016 blizzard. Since then, they have been worse versus climo than central or south.

You’d think getting another mod strong one isn’t too likely. That would make 3 of the last 4 with only 18-19 not being strong or mod

I’m still gonna try tonight but need the Bz to go negative stat.

I thought this event was supposed to be stronger? Is the KFS now doing space weather?

I read a piece about the rivalry between the OFA and the FA being one of the longest literary rivalries going. I've always been an OFA guy myself. I wonder if they had a party celebrating the vanquishing of their rivals?

I think you're reading into it way too much. Someone I listen to that am really liking a lot with a weather page as mentioned several times now about disruption in the polar vortex. He's been on this thing for the last month and it looks like it's happening. It'd be the first time this has happened in decades in The month of November.

I think we’re in the stage where the temp is still 38 and we’re supposed to be at freezing by now