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He's way too bearish NGL

I don't even get where he stressed that it would be a mis-match Winter. I think every year it is said, "there is also the chance that mismatch could occur at sometime if X and Y", but that's just being wishy-washy imo.

Another miserable July day. High of 96 with dew points around 80 most of the day

I think wall to wall 70 is going to be very hard, even 20 years from now, but there’s no doubt one of the biggest changes in our summers the last 40 years has been the humidity.

Heck, it aligns almost perfectly with the Detroit threaded record. A touch colder in the early decades, but not surprising considering given the siting/location of the Detroit City record in that era. In recent years, it has shown somewhat less warming, although the broad trends align VERY closely.

Yes. Many feel that way.

I don't CHERRY PICK anything. I also am not opposed to using raw data to show broad trends, but it's important to be mindful of the possible biases in the data being presented. How is noting a bias in the data being biased? As far as any problem with the Ann Arbor data, I'm not seeing it. It's right in line with the rest of southern Michigan for data from the late 1880s - 1890s period, which is freely accessible from NCEI.

Hey Barry, 57, a Houston area regular, is generous with his postings and is very knowledgable along with decades of experience with tropical forecasting. He runs his own tropical forecasting service. He’s one of the original regulars. So, for good reason, he’s very well respected and I’m glad he posts as much as he does. However, I do feel he tends to have a bit of a bearish lean in some of his public posts there. Again, imho as it’s subjective. And it’s by no means for nearly all posts. In addition, many times his bearish posts verify very well. I think that his desire to have quiet weekends sometimes influences his posts there toward the bear. Keep in mind that I prefer BB posters exhibit neither an explicit bearish nor an explicit bullish bias. I try my best to be perceived that way.

Shades of 2011 where we see the extreme June ridge return for a second time in late July, but further west this time.

I think the biggest surprise for me was how few 70F+ dewpoints there were in 2016 despite that being a scorching summer (hottest on record at Detroit). Only 9 hours at this point at Detroit, and 1 hour at Pittsburgh. Also, somewhat surprising, through yesterday's date, 2016 was 1F cooler than this summer to date at Detroit. It's been 10 years so my memory is getting a little fuzzy, but it must have been an all out torch from here on out that year.

It was a legitimate Winter cold period. There was not a SE ridge under -NAO like the last few years had, had. I realize NYC was not at the epicenter, but that doesn't mean anything less about it.. there were Winter time temperatures late November through late February, it ended very quickly after that but it was also the first prolonged below average period like that in more than several years.. I was thinking the cold Summer H5 +NAO last Summer might create a -EPO pattern, but I was a little taken by the +PNA and how the Fall -PDO basically had no effect on Winter temps until March. Phoenix broke their previous Summer record by a lot last year.. more than 40 days of consecutive 100F+ over year number 2. Those analogs were very +PNA Dec/Jan, I guess it had valiance, but I was a little skeptical.

Some PM food for thought:

Saw a post from the Southeast Regional Climate Center about 70F dewpoint hours and decided to take a look in the Great Lakes region, and WOW. Record hours of 70F dewpoints pretty much across the board. Nuts.

AAM: still has Ninoish peak next week Prior run (6 days ago):

I have pointed that out a few times and he has never addressed it. He keeps mentioning how he predicted the mismatch period, but that wasn't simply a mismatch period....it was just a colder pattern that lasted well over a month. I didn't foresee that, either....I also was looking for a mismatch month, but it was more than that...otherwise it would have been much above normal like the last several seasons, but it was near normal.

That Tonga, volcano a few years ago still messing things up doesn’t help. although it seems to have cooled the southern hemisphere a bit

How does an El Nino change the pattern beyond general global warming, which is a broad thing? I'm referring more to the -PNA pattern that has happened years after the Super Nino's of 97-98, 15-16, 23-24. (There's probably an answer but I don't know it). I'm talking about the meteorology aspect. You seem to be convinced that there firm or absolute starting points to "next level things", that we are counting 2, 8, and 27 years from. Maybe in a broad sense, but the problem has been upper latitude index patterns, and unless you can connect the adjoining features it's probably not something to be so absolute on. Last year from late Nov to late Feb we had a very cold period across the CONUS, which breaks the absolute theory, I don't remember you talking about that happening from last Fall.

My heart weeps for you...

Last winter was a historic one for the lakes. Expect this one to be similar with a more active synoptic track. It can't get much worse than last winter for snowstorms. I don't think we had one winter storm watch, despite the chilly temps.

my bill wasnt bad at all...ive been keep it at 78 lately

0.40” in today’s late afternoon storm. 6.37” for July so far.

4 of those 6 highest are in the last 5 years. It’s a new regime.

Its much easier to be abrasive online because its a much more impersonal mode of communication.

we need yellowstone to erupt to change the climate

College Park picked up an hourly record 2.71".