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18z ICON looks like it tracks the SLP over the elbow into the GOM.

Heres the Euro Mean today compared to the last 4-days,you can clearly see the MJO is more progressive each day if you look at Day5,the PAC is wrecking havoc with the RMM'S and will keep doing so the next few days

I got the snowblower ready to go, but completely forgot the driveway stakes

Euro/eps doing best with general pattern, but not sure about thermals. Could turn out to be flatter/weaker but warmer like gfs/nam.

Probably 9" or so with the best rates of the event underway. Think 12" is probably gonna be optimistic but we should beat 10"

Reggie comes out a little slower and ends up deeper at the surface, but otherwise stays pretty consistent with 12z.

Given how terribly did with the February threat...I'm not trusting it, lol

Looks to be a little hole of no precip a bit SW of Aurora (around 3 PMish) heading my way so I'm going to clean the driveway. Hope that fills in a bit. Few more inches would make this a great storm.

Not often it isn’t zoinked, It’s entertaining, But pretty good at sniffing out the warm layers aloft in some of these.

Pic from the West Loop a few minutes ago

6” and going. Bit of a dry slot coming in but looks like we still have 6”+ to go if HRRR is accurate. I think a foot may be within reach for most of Chicagoland.

That's the type of polar vortex you want for colder and snowy weather. A stronger than average polar vortex tends to favor torch conditions.

In the neighborhood of 6”. Looking forward to stacking for a few more hours

Yeah the Nam is classic zonked I think.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2025/md2240.html hotness. Best November storm of my life. No doubt.

If I could bet on that map I'm hammering the under for Boston.

Stratton just exhaled

Yeah the latest guidance has a weaker than average polar vortex into mid Jan.

Prepare to Qualify

At hr 75 or whatever it is, we look but do not endorse regardless of whether it’s snowy or not. If things trend that way over the next day, then we sit up a little more.

" 1st Guess" ....lol

I probably just jinxed the storm - just finished putting snow stakes along the front lawn near the street and test fired up the snow thrower.

I’m tossing the NAM. Even the crazy GFS runs weren’t that amped.

who do you think has a better handle on the solution right now?