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Euro and euro AI sucked with this event btw, Euro Ai ensemble snow output had dc with like 5 inches up until a few days ago.

0.7” on the snow board. Now a mix of sleet and freezing rain at 32°. Sidewalks and pavement just a little crunchy.

It’s sleet in Carroll Valley / Fairfield area. Less than 1” snow

It had me with 6" today until last night's 0z when it lowered me to 5", then 4.5" at 6z. After 1/2"+ this morning, I went to sleet. Not saying it'll be wrong. But the bottom line is we need all the models on board, or what can go wrong will.

Why dos Ray’s final map have 2-4” here? Cannot figure that out .

Not very shoetastic, isn't it? Ah well, we'll get plenty of other chances down the pike.

It’s a nice heavy rain though at least, been dry AF maybe we can carry the trend of more qpf into winter storm season.

The line Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Nam is King first storm of the season

Same friend. Alas, we tracked sleet and rain

Fwiw, the warm Nam was best all along down here in S Central PA despite the Eps having me in the jackpot stripe a few days ago. 1/2"+ before a change to sleet with rain soon to follow. Good luck up there, but be careful buying any colder models.

New HRRR and RAP are continuing no bueano for my hood. Hoping for a surprise.

Sleet line blew past me in Hanover after 1/2"+. Hopefully for those to my north it'll slow down. Fwiw, down here, the much maligned NAM was pretty close to right all along. Good luck!

Yes it has been a nice event so far no mixing here….

Snow didn't last very long. Maybe 1/2 inch before the flip to ZR. Temp 30 on the nose.

I thought snow tv at minimum for a couple hrs for northern md based on several soundings I looked at.

One thing I often talk about is "low hanging fruit". It depends on the technology, but very often trend bias applies when predicting future growth (the same thing that often happens with stocks, BTW). Looking at EV sales as example: Note that that prediction was made in what appears to be 2022 or 2023. However here is what has actually happened after that (in the two largest states, which have online dashboards with mandates): After the low-hanging fruit (rich people with easily-accessible charging at home or work) buying a second car was picked - sales are now falling - not continuing the upwards trend predicted. Same is true for solar and wind electricity generation. Note where all the larger solar and wind farms are - it's a lot easier to be less expensive when you install them in the easy low-hanging-fruit places to supply local electricity. Not so much when you need to feed the entire grid.

30/22 and cloudy. Still waiting on precip here. Expecting a 2-3 hour period of snow before a quick change to rain. Interesting that none of the roads around my area were brined yesterday.

Started as all rain in Reisterstown

Yeah, that was fun while it lasted. At least my back is saved for another day of shoveling.

2.25" so far and roads are horrible.

Snowing in Marysville with all surfaces lightly covered at 6 am.

Mesos def cooled overnight. 06z NAM was still a bit warm b but other guidance went colder. Gonna be an interesting forecast for the N&W of 495/90 area.

Well that easy 1-2” became difficult. So basically if almost every model is showing rain, then that’s probably a sign that it’s not cold enough upstairs.

Can’t believe it changed to rain so quickly. Only a few minutes of sleet 33 and rain with the occasional mangled flake or sleet pellet mixed in