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My long weekend at work. Nothing like staring at windows 30 feet up wondering what it's like outside lol 71 degree's and just insanely humid out. Like hitting a brick wall walking out the front door.

Last December was the 4th warmest on record for the CONUS. While January had decent pockets of cold especially for posters further south, it was only the 27th coldest January on record for the CONUS. Sure for the 2020s it was considered a colder month, but prior to this decade we had many much colder Januaries. Plus we warmed back up in February again. The 2024-2025 was among our colder winter for the 2020s so far. But against the long term average it actually ranked as the 27th warmest for the CONUS since 1895 at 34.07°. Right before the 2015-2016 global and regional temperature jump was our last top 40 coldest winter in 2013-2014 coming in at the 32nd coldest with an average temperature of 31.25° 2009-2010 came in even colder at 30.70° and 22nd coldest. This was the coldest winter after the first really significant jump in temperatures in 1997-1998. Prior to this baseline jump the coldest winter was 1984-1985 at the 18th coldest with an average of 30.56° Our first baseline increase following the stable 1895 to 1982 stable climate regime with only a gentle warming occurred in 1982-1983. Prior to this our coldest winter was 1978-1979 ranked #1 coldest since 1895 at 26.62°. It was our last top 10 coldest winter in the CONUS. So we have seen a steady rise in CONUS winter temperatures following each successive baseline rise since 1982-1983. The magnitude of the baseline jumps have also been increasing since 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. This is why the current 10 winter period for the CONUS has been the warmest on record. So the impressive monthly Arctic outbreaks like during the 2021-2021 winters and 2018-2019 winters were more regionally focused instead of CONUS wide during earlier baseline periods. Even the January 2025 Arctic outbreak was more regionally focused.

andddd new jersey wins again.

Picked up 1.61” for a daily total of 1.82”which brings the monthly total to 8.55”

Min 63.6° Mostly ovc but there’s a clearing line moving in from the NW. Let’s get some rain today.

70s and best climo on tap for today

70° / 66° back in the soup. Just came back from Boston it was 74 on the car at thermometer almost the entire way.

Central Jersey storm/ff hot spot does it again. Amazingly consistent year after year down there. Meanwhile just showers amounting to a few hundredths on the island.

Very interesting post/research on why the subsurface is arguing that this is likely going to be a 2nd year “double dip” La Niña:

Talking on the internet is an extension of yourself. I'd argue that it's actually more real because the reflection is staring right back at you. With time, you start to communicate better. I know my posting has changed a lot from when I was young to now.. I didn't know completely how it would be perceived back then. In face-to-face talk it's very spontaneous.

Yes, it’s a fairly new station.

Dew points in recent years peak 80F+ in July in Minnesota.

It's just easier to dehumanize someone when you don't look them in their eyes....you respond to a post and lose sight of the fact that there is a person on the other end of the the keyboard....samy dynamic with road rage....people dehumanize the other driver and flip.

Another note: Someone other than the Chiefs is expected to win the AFC West in current betting odds. Cleveland is least likely off all teams to win their division, although the NO Saints have the worst SB odds at 400:1 An all-New York super bowl is 250:1, although New York has the most championships in sports of all cities by a pretty good amount Other than that, I'm always surprised how uniform it is year-to-year. Defenses vary more than the betting odds suggest.

And if not for the foresight of installing those sensors in vulnerable areas, you guys may not have been able to respond as quickly as you did. Infrastructure matters.

cat5 imo is a realist

I'm actually stoked for the Ravens defense this season. And Derrick Henry is still in his prime.. age starts becoming a bigger factor next year.. the time might realistically be weighted toward now. I still think our WR corps are a little weak, but that and maybe kicker are the only soft spots on the team. At least we don't have the Bills WR's, they are currently tied with Ravens for #1 betting Super bowl odds: 1:6.5. Edit: I see the Eagles are back tied with the Ravens and Bills for #1.. they had fallen to #3 a few weeks ago.

I found that there was a clear N. Hemisphere SLP pattern, especially in the Atlantic, Apr-May before active vs inactive seasons. I posted about it here: We had a little bit of an opposite-tripole this year.

Wow, that is insane! Is that an 83F dewpoint? Wtf? That is a wet bulb of 85F or 86F, not this WBGT meme, but bona fide wet bulb. A wet bulb of 95F (35C) is deadly if you are out in it for any extended period of time (even inactive and in the shade), maybe even somewhat cooler than that. Definitely take proper precautions in those conditions.

83 today. Beautiful day!

Im curious if the current Enso situation has anything to do with the lack of tropical activity thru July 19th

^Nice post. Pretty clear Atlantic-tripole there, with both phases considered. It's always fun to see whole patterns with good lead time. Also interesting the bullying of WPO and NAO as the both seem to correlate with warmer SSTAs near southern Asia. The lead SSTA's for Winter WPO I found peaks at +0.61 correlation just SE of India, Aug-Nov before Dec-March. Overall it's pretty high in the Indian Ocean late Summer-Fall before WPO-Winters. There is a +PDO in the Spring/early Summer to following Winter +WPO signal (and visa-versa) as well.

Well at least the Ravens should make the playoffs which is more then I can say about the Orioles

I'm sure Diddy uses it too but probably for other reasons lol