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AAM: still has Ninoish peak next week Prior run (6 days ago):

I have pointed that out a few times and he has never addressed it. He keeps mentioning how he predicated the mismatch period, but that wasn't simply a mismatch period....it was just a colder pattern that lasted well over a month. I didn't foresee that, either....I also was looking for a mismatch month, but it was more than that...otherwise it would have been much above normal like the last several seasons, but it was near normal.

That Tonga, volcano a few years ago still messing things up doesn’t help. although it seems to have cooled the southern hemisphere a bit

How does an El Nino change the pattern beyond general global warming, which is a broad thing? I'm referring more to the -PNA pattern that has happened years after the Super Nino's of 97-98, 15-16, 23-24. (There's probably an answer but I don't know it). I'm talking about the meteorology aspect. You seem to be convinced that there firm or absolute starting points to "next level things", that we are counting 2, 8, and 27 years from. Maybe in a broad sense, but the problem has been upper latitude index patterns, and unless you can connect the adjoining features it's probably not something to be so absolute on. Last year from late Nov to late Feb we had a very cold period across the CONUS, which breaks the absolute theory, I don't remember you talking about that happening from last Fall.

My heart weeps for you...

Last winter was a historic one for the lakes. Expect this one to be similar with a more active synoptic track. It can't get much worse than last winter for snowstorms. I don't think we had one winter storm watch, despite the chilly temps.

my bill wasnt bad at all...ive been keep it at 78 lately

0.40” in today’s late afternoon storm. 6.37” for July so far.

4 of those 6 highest are in the last 5 years. It’s a new regime.

Its much easier to be abrasive online because its a much more impersonal mode of communication.

we need yellowstone to erupt to change the climate

College Park picked up an hourly record 2.71".

It's a shame geoengineering is so frowned upon.

The dew lovers must really be liking these trends. Eventually may just be wall to wall 70F dewpoints all summer long?

Here's how Boston is doing for hourly observations with a dewpoint at or above 70F for the season to date: Currently, in 4th place behind 2024, 2013 and 1984, with 188 hours. I wonder how many 70F dewpoint hours have been lost this summer due to some of the ASOS issues? In 2004 & 1951, there were 0 hours with a dewpoint at or above 70F at his point in the season.

This is what many live for...

Here is Pittsburgh for the summer to date. Wow! Second only to 2005, with 253 hours with a dewpoint at or above 70F so far this season. The average is a hair under 50 hours, although the average is clearly pushed up by anomalously humid years like this one, 2005 & 1949. The median is clearly below the arithmetic mean. By contrast, there were no 70F dewpoints in 1960, 1967, 1975, 1971 or 1976 by this point in the summer. More recently, only 1 hour of 70F+ dewpoints had been observed at this point in 2016 (kind of surprising, as that was a fairly hot summer) and only 3 hours in 2023.

Got this idea from the SERCC X/Twitter account (see post below)

my guess is 12 to 15 for Hartford, however wouldn't be shocked if it's over that, 15+ easily doable.

Brief spritz here in Riverdale, NJ. This AM was gorgeous. Spent time by the pool for a couple of hours. Was hoping to get more time this afternoon, but the weather did not cooperate. Tomorrow will be poolside for sure.

Better get crackin'.

I’m at Broadkill Beach and also on RadarScope. There have been a few downpours here today that weren’t on radar. Not a big deal. They must have just been very localized.

No

Rain has stopped here. 2.1” in 70 minutes

Had a quick shower driving home from work in Franklin lakes.