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What warmup ? The same people that said a warmup in early December think the same thing about the end of December. This month is going to end of very cold.

Earlier today, the CAMs were predicting a 6+" band along hw30 from central to eastern Iowa. As the afternoon has progressed, these models have shifted northeast and dried out. It looks more like 3-5 (hopefully still that much) across east-central Iowa.

If right, the rich get richer. Sad.

the upcoming screamer is going to be awesome!

Let me know if he needs any help starting them.

18z Euro increased Snow as well

100:1 you'll get more than the South Coast.

But the idea of a big Arctic plunge 12/12-17 deep down into the US (possibly from two highs per GFS) is becoming increasingly likely based on model guidance. This is very believable considering it would be during an EPS progged longest phase 8 in 50 years along with the highest % Dec 5th snowcover in the Midwest since at least 2002. This is also setting the table for a potential quite cold Dec/Jan considering the -PNA Dec -ENSO analogs suggesting a +PNA Jan, which would make it likely that DJF would end up colder than normal for much of the E US even if we get the favored mild Feb.

So, what you're saying is that we're completely invincible to failure?

All of our chips are on the table for a lee side trough. Without it, nothing, with it……

That's the same with me for summer thunderstorms. When I lived in Bethlehem, all the best storms were northwest of me up in the coal region. I moved to Tamaqua, and now the Lehigh Valley gets smoked.

As far as February being canonical Niña? Nope and if I do change it, it won’t be until we are into January

I posted in this thread like 4-5 times a long time ago that weak-negativeENSO and strong -QBO has this strange coincidence of having super cold December's. 1989 and 2005 were examples. QBO is a stratosphere index so I didn't want to make the physical connection, but mentioned that it would be something if it happened again. And sure enough, it did happen again. This December is looking like one of the coldest in the eastern 1/2 since 2005.

Euro has a light clipper next Friday but the H5 is such a mess I doubt its going to be even close to what we end up with as we have 5 different H5 vorticity max areas all interacting with each other. Sorta reminds me of this with how it plays out

Our hopes and dreams are always determined by random wave interactions and timing. Normal people don't get why we do this lol.

Lol. Fantasy range anyway…13th/14th is our focus obviously.

Day 14 on the operational 18z GFS

Dec 2009ish feel

Great, Kevin’s lawn tools can come up with new and creative ways to violate him.

I also think I win when it comes to my setup for analyzing the various potential storms we got on our radars. Its a bit of a weather nerds dream to have a whole projector to yourself.

Nope, no joke. 0.0.....not even a flake (that I'm aware of). It's been quite a winter so far!!! Oh, I meant the pouring rain part. I had no idea it was precipitating east of here today. We were Sunny most of the day.

You can see another area of vorticity just barely escape out ahead of our wave. I mean this is the GFS at hour 147 and just look at how close our waves are to creating something truly special Instead it escapes and its all the NS doing work Ngl for whatever reason I'm feeling this one. We got all the stuff setup at the H5 level and just need something to combine together.

A week later, from the same run. 40 to 50° below normal across the upper Midwest.