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Toronto choked and I’m still about it!

BWI: 15.4” DCA: 11” IAD: 16.8” RIC: 7” TB LYH: 11”

Wind adv out for today for strong SW winds. Leaves are blowing around pretty good. Last few days, lots of tweety flocks, and even a few geese flocks moving through.

Looks like we will have relatively quiet week ahead with daytime highs in the 60's and lows in the upper 30’s to 40’s. A mainly zonal flow should hold until next weekend, then changes are brewing. The various computer schemes suggest a strong Great Lakes gale developing and moderate to heavy snow across portions of the Region. There are hints of snow upslope snow showers along the border Counties late next weekend depending on timing. I continue to see signs that indicate the possibility of below normal temperatures and storm chances into the Thanksgiving Holiday period.

Something interesting around Veterans Day

Computer modeling is so good right now that I almost feel more confident in the weeklies 500 pattern between weeks 3-4 than the detailed look at d7-12 on operationals. Long wave pattern modeling has gotten really good. But that said, I have been burned more times than I can count by a shoulder season 500 look at range! BTW, I don't want people thinking I am walking things back this morning. I have only looked at 6z operationals...no seasonals or LR ext stuff. LOL

Correct. A cold western IO and a warm eastern IO is textbook negative IOD. If you notice on the SST charts, the western IO is still cooling very rapidly. I believe we are nearing the peak, probably within the next 2 weeks or so and I have very good confidence based on the ongoing cooling and the last weekly update that this event reaches or exceeds -2, which would make it one of the strongest -IOD events in history. It already set a weekly record (since 2000) on the last update

Going down to North Carolina later this week to visit some family. It’s probably gonna feel like a heatwave compared to what we’re dealing with right now. Maybe we can catch the early phases of a forming coastal low if I’m lucky lol.

Cold day. Cant wait for spring. Ready for this year from hell to end.

And now temps are soaring as the winds rise. Neat to see on a graph

Records: Highs: EWR: 84 (1950) NYC: 83 (1950) LGA: 83 (1950) JFK: 74 (1974) Lows: EWR: 29 (1976) NYC: 30 (1887) LGA: 29 (1965) JFK: 31 (1965) Historical: 1743: Benjamin Franklin's "eclipse hurricane" unlocked the key to storm movement. A rainstorm prevented Ben Franklin from viewing a lunar eclipse in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, but his brother in Boston saw it, though the rain began an hour later. 1810: An early season winter storm produced 7 inches of snow in New York City. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1861: The Federal Expedition, the largest fleet of American warships assembled up to that time, sailed from MD to attack Confederate installations in SC. Upon rounding the North Carolina Capes it ran into a hurricane that sank two of the ships. The fleet otherwise survived and five days later captured Port Royal Sound, SC. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1929: Boston, Massachusetts had a high minimum temperature of 63 °F the warmest low temperature for November. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1946: A tornado hit Washington in Hempstead County in Arkansas, killing one. 1946 - A heavy wet snow began to cover the Southern Rockies. Up to three feet of snow blanketed the mountains of New Mexico, and a 31 inch snow at Denver CO caused roofs to collapse. (David Ludlum) 1950: High pressure off the East Coast brought another day of record warmth from the Mid-Atlantic States into New England. November all-time state heat records established today: NC (90 degrees in Greenville and Oxford; NY (87 in Elmira); NH (84 in Windham); RI (82 in Greenville; and VT (81 in Bellows Falls). Many locations recorded record highs for the month of November including: Boston, MA: 83°, Hartford, CT: 83°, New York (LaGuardia Airport), NY: 83°-Tied, Providence, RI: 81°, Wilmington, DE: 81°, Atlantic City, NJ: 81°, Philadelphia, PA: 81°, Allentown, PA: 80°, Harrisburg, PA: 79° and others. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Boston, Massachusetts had a high temperature of 83 °F the warmest temperature for November. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1951: A large ridge of Canadian high pressure pushed a cold front into the southeast states southwest into northern Mexico bringing an early taste of winter. More than 50 record lows were set in the North, Central and southern Mid-West States. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1961: A large ridge of high pressure brought record autumn heat from the Great Lakes into the Southeast. Locations recording their all-time record high for November included: Augusta, GA: 90°, Columbia, SC: 90° and Atlanta, GA: 84°. Other record highs for the date included: Tampa, FL: 88°, Macon, GA: 88°, Savannah, GA: 88°, Charleston, SC: 87°, Charlotte, NC: 85°, Little Rock, AR: 83°, Louisville, KY: 81°, Cincinnati, OH: 80°, St. Louis, MO: 80°, Springfield, IL: 80°, Chicago, IL: 77°, Columbus, OH: 77° and others. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1961 - The temperature at Atlanta, GA, reached 84 degrees to establish a record for November. (The Weather Channel) 1966 - A storm brought 18 inches of snow to Celia KY in 24 hours. It tied the state 24 hour snowfall record first established at Bowling Green. (The Weather Channel) 1971: The maximum today was 85° in Washington, DC warmest ever so late in season. (Ref. Washington Weather Records) Also on this date Richmond, Virginia had its latest minimum of 70 °F or higher (latest warm night in the year) with a minimum temperature of only 70 °F. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records) A ridge along the east coast with upper level high pressure off the Florida coast brought record heat from parts of southern New England to the south. Locations recording their highest November temperature included: Mobile, AL: 87°-Tied and Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 84°-Tied. Other locations reporting record highs for the date included: Washington, DC: 85°, Tupelo, MS: 85°, Richmond, VA: 84°-Tied, Lynchburg, VA: 82°, Roanoke, VA: 82°, -Tied, Asheville, NC: 80°, Bristol, TN: 80°-Tied, Greensboro, NC: 80°-Tied, Cape Hatteras, NC: 78°-Tied, Syracuse, NY: 76°, and New York (Kennedy Airport), NY: 73° and others. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1974: Southeast Kansas--Lightning struck and killed a man in a duck blind near Lowell about 10 a.m. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1976: A lady is shocked while talking on the phone when a lightning strike hits a telephone pole nearby. The strange thing is that it occurred during a snowstorm. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - A dozen cities, mostly in the Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date. Record highs included 83 degrees at Paducah KY and 84 degrees at Memphis TN. Temperatures reached 70 degrees as far north as southern Lower Michigan. Showers and thundershowers over southern Florida, associated with a tropical depression, produced 4.77 inches of rain at Tavernier, located in the Upper Florida Keys. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A very intense low pressure system brought heavy rain, snow, and high winds, to parts of the northeastern U.S. Portland ME established a record for November with 4.52 inches of rain in 24 hours, and winds along the coast of Maine gusted to 74 mph at Southwest Harbor. Heavy snow blanketed parts of northern Vermont and upstate New York, with 15 inches reported at Spruce Hill NY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Squalls in the Upper Great Lakes Region the first three days of the month buried Ironwood MI under 46 inches of snow, and produced 40 inches at Hurley WI. Arctic cold invaded the Southern Plains Region. Midland TX reported a record low of 22 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1991: Strong low pressure of 988 millibars or 29.18 inches mercury north of Lake Superior combined with high pressure over southern Canada brought record winter-like cold from parts of the Rockies into the Plains. Kimball, NE matched their record earliest below zero with -2°. Other daily record lows included: Alamosa, CO: -21°, Great Falls, MT: -16°, Casper, WY: -14°, Helena, MT: -13°, Lander, WY: -12°, Pueblo, CO: -10°, Cheyenne, WY: -7°, Scottsbluff, NE: -4°, Billings, MT: -2°, Sheridan, WY: -2°-Tied, Valentine, NE: -2°, North Platte, NE: 1°, Missoula, MT: 0°, Grand Island, NE: 4°, Dodge City, KS: 4°, Norfolk, NE: 5°, Concordia, KS: 8°, Lincoln, NE: 9°, Omaha, NE: 9°, Amarillo, TX: 10°, Kansas City, MO: 12°, Topeka, KS: 14°-Tied, Wichita, KS: 14°-Tied, Oklahoma City, OK: 19°, Lubbock, TX: 19°-Tied, Abilene, TX: 25°, Dallas (DFW), TX: 28° and Houston, TX: 34°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1992: Another infamous November Great Lakes Storm brought windy conditions to Minnesota's Lake Superior shoreline. 70 mph winds caused waves to crash over 130-foot walls along the shore. 2000: Hilo, Hawaii on November 1st and 2nd : Heavy and persistent rains across the eastern half (windward side) of the "Big Island" of Hawaii drop 27.24 inches of rain at the Hilo Airport in a 24-hour period, breaking the previous 24-hour rainfall record. The previous record was 22.30 inches set on February 19-20, 1979. (Ref. WxDoctor) 37 inches of rain fell at Kapapala Ranch on the big island of Hawaii. 22.25 inches of it occurred in just 6 hours. This just missed breaking the all-time 24-hour rainfall record for the state of 38 inches at Kilauea Sugar Plantation on Kauai in January 1956. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

We got to 28 here with some mixing. Same elevation and just a few miles. Winds died eventually

29.7...first <30 of the season. Getting the roof replaced early Dec most likely so now it's guaranteed to turn cold and stormy to mess things up.

I am just happy to see some cooling in the IO, even if its CURRENTLY in the wrong spot.

Did you try a radiation shield? I know that Ambient sells separate radiation shields for their sensors. The more expensive stations like Davis have a fan aspirated shield. https://ambientweather.com/wh31-srs-solar-radiation-shield?srsltid=AfmBOorz7EtGt-FN_WSBnQcQN8KyI1q2M0m0rrY8pdsVqiMRaXYAlYm6 https://ambientweather.com/amwesrpatean.html?srsltid=AfmBOopKyQ4VW7xznO4qgQROflDAcsKdO1GId74O8ZUjp8Tr-Oz9zXpN

49 / 40 off a low of 31 here. Standard time for the next 127 days and we'll see if these time change bills flail or any have legs come this spring. Low to mid 60s in the warmest spots. Clouds tomorrow / warmest is Tue/Wed where the warmest spots could make a run at 70. Looks like an above normal / dry week with the next shot of rain next weekend. Trough between the 9th and 11/12 before warming again towards mid month.

As I said last winter and what mostly transpired, the MJO can be in bad phases as long as its weak or just mostly nonexistent which was the case last winter most of the time. You just don't want it strongly in 3-4-5 all winter

Low of 36. What a World Series that was, just incredible drama.

I will say the ORH one initially caught my eye too because they stayed mixed all night through morning…5-10kt. But surrounding min temps do seem to verify ORH and Tol.

BWI: 13.1” DCA: 10.5” IAD: 13.6” RIC: 6.6” Tiebreaker SBY: 7.0”

My Ambient Weather Station tends to shoot up once the Sun is hitting it in the morning. It will reach a daily high in line with everyone else and then reach a low similar to other stations, but in the morning once the Sun hits it, it's always several degrees warmer than other locations. Isn't it supposed to be in the Sun? I don't get why mine gets so warm so quick because of Sun when others don't.

Tough loss for the Blue Jays. Though I didn't really have a dog in the fight (being a lowly Cleveland Guardians fan haha!), I was rooting for Toronto to win it. Just because they were huge underdogs and I'm kind of tired of big market teams like LA always being up there every season. Was time for a totally different winner this year. I was almost hoping for a Seattle-Milwaukee Series, actually! As much as the Dodgers' talent came through (Ohtani is insanely talented, and Yamamoto is nearly as incredible), the Jays really blew it. Very frustrating. I mean, come on...leadoff double in the bottom of the 8th with a then 4-3 lead, and they cannot push across one insurance run (would have rendered what was LA's tying home run in the 9th as moot)? Then in the bottom of the 9th, bases loaded and one out in a 4-4 tie, and they can't score the walk-off winning run somehow? And even in the 11th when down 5-4, they had a definite good chance to at least tie it, but blew it with a double-play to end the game and the Series. I suppose, being a native Clevelander, it's only fitting that the former Guardian (Shane Bieber) coughed up what was the game-winning HR to the Dodgers!! He must have forgotten that he's not playing for Cleveland now, LOL!!! Oh and despite being disappointed in the outcome, what a Series! A 9-run spot for the Jays in Game 1 was the 2nd largest inning in Series history, and TWO extra inning games (including the 18 inning drama). This was the 4th extra-inning Game 7 in the "modern era" going back to Jack Morris (for the Twins) and his 10-inning pitching gem...and, as expected, Cleveland lost TWO of those (1997 in 11 innings vs. the Marlins, 2016 in 10 innings vs. the Cubs).

I can't say I'm mad Hoffman blew the save. He was blowing kisses to the Os dugout the first time he faced them this season. If anyone doesn't remember, the Os had a 3 year deal on the table for him but pulled it after the physical showed some concerns with his arm. And they weren't the only team to back away. His regular season era was almost 4.5 and at one point was benched as the cloaer.

Huh?

Liberty Reservoir was steaming this morning as I drove over it.