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2-4?

The split forcing that I mentioned is preventing s clean MJO 8 response due to the interference leading to a moderation of the pattern mid month on the EPS. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf The MJO resumed its eastward propagation while greatly strengthening in amplitude over the Western Pacific during the past week. • RMM observations currently show the signal at greater than 3 standard deviations in amplitude, the highest registered since March, 2024 • Based on objectively wave filtered upper-level velocity potential anomalies, the recent strengthening is likely tied to higher frequency wave modes constructively interfering with both the enhanced and suppressed MJO envelopes. • The strong Western Pacific MJO has led to a weakening of the La Nina background circulation over the equatorial Pacific, with convective anomalies developing off the equator. • As the faster propagating tropical variability moves away of the slower MJO envelopes, a transition towards more competing interference is favored, resulting in a substantially weakened MJO signal over the Western Hemisphere during the next two weeks. • Even with a weakened MJO, subseasonal forcing still favors the greatest chances for tropical cyclone development over the South Pacific, with lowered chances over the Indian Ocean. • The extratropical response associated with Western Hemisphere MJO events during December historically consists of development of high latitude blocking over/near Greenland, potentially allowing for Arctic air to be advected into portions of the central and eastern CONUS.

21.8° flaking

Snowfall up north is much appreciated as many mountains open operations first week of December.

Morning y’all. It’s 34 and rain here. Yipeeeeeeeeee!

The 6z GFS is frigid late in its run. Going to be interesting to look at MJO plots this morning.

Northern band of light snow getting going early up here

Very cruel Snow is so close to the coast right now

Mesos keep my hood snow until about 4p.m. Not sure I buy it hanging in that long unless this bombs

Snow just started here

Eyeballing 2-3 on the deck rail. Coming down at a moderate rate at the moment.

27.3 SN Everything caved here.

Yeah its inevitable but atleast it's cold rn to support snow, hopefully the precip gets here before the push.

We like our cold rains heavy around here!

I'd be hitting refresh on the HRRR/RAP and focusing on radar/looking out the window.

Temperatures along the south shore of LI are in the mid 30s currently. Once the winds back around to the SE with the approach of surface low pressure this milder air mass from the ocean will come surging inland. Yesterday’s high pressure area is moving away rapidly so there is nothing in the atmosphere to prevent this warm up today.

Tug of war going on rn.

Need some cold ticks to improve these:

Looks like the mixing is staying south of the border. Nice event indeed to start the season. Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk

Same here, was looking for some flakes but nah... 33F here, dp is still 22.

Ya it might completely collapse if it got a few inches of snow on it

Woke up hoping for some model guidance resolution. I first checked the NAM with 2" dang it, GFS still showing 10. Talk about a now cast. NWS split the difference. Still holding out this thing bombs this afternoon. I'm good with whatever happens. Looking to ski this weekend, but I also got a lot of surveying fieldwork, but it aint gonna get done today.

I bottomed (giggity) out at 24 in Westfield, was 26 whn I left the house. 27 in Simsbury. The school system is closed along with many others in this area.

The chart I posted has global numbers. The US is lagging. We have large import duties on solar, and EVs from China making our costs higher than the rest of the world.

Snowing here.