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Another note: Someone other than the Chiefs is expected to win the AFC West in current betting odds.

And if not for the foresight of installing those sensors in vulnerable areas, you guys may not have been able to respond as quickly as you did. Infrastructure matters.

cat5 imo is a realist

I'm actually stoked for the Ravens defense this season. And Derrick Henry is still in his prime.. age starts becoming a bigger factor next year.. the time might realistically be weighted toward now. I still think our WR corps are a little weak, but that and maybe kicker are the only soft spots on the team. At least we don't have the Bills WR's, they are currently tied with Ravens for #1 betting Super bowl odds: 1:6.5. Edit: I see the Eagles are back tied with the Ravens and Bills for #1.. they had fallen to #3 a few weeks ago.

I found that there was a clear N. Hemisphere SLP pattern, especially in the Atlantic, Apr-May before active vs inactive seasons. I posted about it here: We had a little bit of an opposite-tripole this year.

Wow, that is insane! Is that an 83F dewpoint? Wtf? That is a wet bulb of 85F or 86F, not this WBGT meme, but bona fide wet bulb. A wet bulb of 95F (35C) is deadly if you are out in it for any extended period of time (even inactive and in the shade), maybe even somewhat cooler than that. Definitely take proper precautions in those conditions.

83 today. Beautiful day!

Im curious if the current Enso situation has anything to do with the lack of tropical activity thru July 19th

^Nice post. Pretty clear Atlantic-tripole there, with both phases considered. It's always fun to see whole patterns with good lead time. Also interesting the bullying of WPO and NAO as the both seem to correlate with warmer SSTAs near southern Asia. The lead SSTA's for Winter WPO I found peaks at +0.61 correlation just SE of India, Aug-Nov before Dec-March. Overall it's pretty high in the Indian Ocean late Summer-Fall before WPO-Winters. There is a +PDO in the Spring/early Summer to following Winter +WPO signal (and visa-versa) as well.

Well at least the Ravens should make the playoffs which is more then I can say about the Orioles

I'm sure Diddy uses it too but probably for other reasons lol

The mismatch thing is just an excuse to say even though all periods should be warm, some will still be cold because the mechanisms driving the warmth are actually only moderately strong correlation rather than direct cause. It's a bit like people predicting the stock market who always forecast record highs and growth because you get geometric real returns of 7-8% over long periods, even though some years still finish with negative annual returns. If it was winter right now, the cold Tropical Atlantic, relatively warm Nino 1.2 v. cool Nino 4 would imply a neutral AMO and a Modoki la Nina with the -PDO. You'd see huge dumps of cold alternating between the Plains and West. The precipitation pattern on the Canadian at the equator in winter looks most similar to MJO five for the winter, with four somewhat close too. I generally use SST indicators as a guideline for predicting the major indices in winter. You can see huge areas of the Atlantic and Pacific predict WPO behavior in winter in the Summer - and favor the +WPO which also favors Western cold in both Fall (Oct-Nov) and Feb-Apr. WPO also tends to 'bully' the NAO primary phase into place to some extent.

Right. The Models haven't been good depicting where the greatest likelihood of Storms will setup. Day before yesterday they had it over us, west to east. It ended up being further North along a London to Wise line with spreaded swath width about 50-75 miles North of that line. This Morning an area was further south than progged.

It was incredible. Also have never seen rain like that here.

Brief shower earlier, still nice sunset.

Ducks game was awesome. Perfect weather had a few seconds of spotty drizzle that’s about it

0.71", 4.56" month, 28.55" ytd

Just went gangbusters. That is one of the most vulnerable watersheds in Montgomery County. Terrain, loose soils and urbanization are tremendous stressors on that waterway.

Impressive indeed, but am i reading/understanding that graph wrong ? Too much work must be frying my brain - Or too much alcohol after work , Is College Park semi arid...? Is this a new recording station ? 1976 to 2025 ?

0.97” from the storm tonight, 8.13” for the month so far.

Ended up with just under 2.5 inches of rain. Five miles to my southeast got 5+ inches!

Wild pics from takoma park and silver spring. Sligo parkway was part of the creek today.

With how much rain there's been of late, I'd say that's a good thing. I hope it continues weakening. Doesn't look like a big rainmaker at this point in any event, although there are still some areas of embedded heavier downpours where I guess a quarter to half inch could fall.

That was from one of our county flood sensors near Sligo Creek Pkwy & New Hampshire Ave (MD 650). I've never seen water levels rise that quickly at that location. I actually wound up requesting the upgrade to a flash flood emergency. Our flood sensors inside the beltway just went bonkers so fast. Cabin John Branch, Rock Creek, Sligo Creek, and Northwest Branch just started raging in under half an hour. This was the worst flash flood event I have ever worked in my entire career. Had this persisted for just another 20 to 30 minutes, we would've had real problems in Montgomery County. The flood sensors we installed, combined with the Layhill and College Park mesonet sites raised alarm bells quickly, which resulted in us getting roads closed and water rescue assets staffed quickly. It was one of the few times in my career that I actually felt helpless as things went sideways.