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It won’t snow till you see the white in the skies

I hope that swings south 120 miles and destroys Connecticut, last thing I want is that BS to start off the season so we spend 4 weeks cutting our trails back open!

was just about to ask everyone's opinion, it's been a sig for a few runs now, if anything it looks to be pretty cold, possibly a few inches elevation depending?

If we can avoid the 3 inch rain Grinch on Christmas I'm all for it, until we hit Christmas day I'm not getting my hopes up.

I had a similar issue with the Davis Vantage Vue, maybe 2-3 degrees under certain sunny conditions. It had the shield but it was small and not fan aspirated.

It's super annoying that something like that isn't taken into account. I was 5 degrees warmer than everyone else for a few hours this morning.

2007-08 or 2008-09? it's very hard to isolate the effect of the -IOD given covariability between IOD and ENSO, but webb tried to do so (for weak to mdt -ENSO using 20cr) and the results were interesting; hints of -NAO/+PNA in early winter then a snap to +NAO and strong PV in feb, sort of exaggerating canonical nina progression(also similar to -QBO/high solar -ENSO) https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1984271391596916942

Thank you. I should have mentioned that mine already came with a shield: So it makes sense that those shields you linked aren't compatible when I checked. It's annoying that the one it came with is not doing its job properly.

You cant be serious

Doing some research and hoping yall can jog my memory. Whats the best “it broke containment” episode you’ve ever seen in the foothills from a NW flow event?

Widespread freezes coming to the Carolinas and Virginia next week

Of course…just take the exact opposite of what the Pope says, and then you’re usually closer to reality.

He will chime in as we close in…

Same ole crap. We'd be lucky to get 1 winter storm all winter.

Dude it’s like 10+ days away. lol. Saying “may need to watch” Isn’t exactly a proclamation.

Up to 63 - gorgeous fall day.

Not until Will comes back

I agree with your post. IMO, those maps should not be published on any credible site. Such wild swings and extremes on a run-to-run basis are not too surprising. That's why NCEP blends multiple cycles.

Yeah first third of November doesn’t look that warm to me. In fact, I think we have a good chance for first measurable (.1”) away from the coast.

Most snow lovers want snow whenever they can get it. Winter-season snow sticks around longer and holiday snow enhances the season. So we'd choose those scenarios if given a trade option. But it doesn't work that way. Any apparent correlation between early season snow and winter snow is likely coincidental and skewed by a small sample size.

EC AIFS shows something too. Euro op and EPS aren’t enthused. May need to watch that 11/10-11/15 period.

Hey Mitch, I’d love to see it! But a huge grain of salt is advised. One year ago the CANSIPS was forecasting a Modoki Nino for now, about which I posted last year and got excited. Obviously, that failed miserably and I’ve learned from it. One year ago, CANSIPS forecasted this for Oct of 2025: Compare that to the new CANSIPS for Oct of 2026: the entire globe looks so similar that it almost looks like a copy and paste although it’s slightly warmer in Nino regions. Hopefully this new CANSIPS for next Oct won’t also verify way off! @Carvers Gap@donsutherland1@Daniel Boone

Nahhh…The Pope says big warm up coming (Torch is what he said actually) is “confirmed.”

Is this true ?

2012-13?