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The op is like any other op. The ensemble has been decent.

Today’s runs probably track it over my head.

22.4 was the low at my house, farm was 19.3 which matches the airport next to it.

It really isn’t that good though.

Yeah true, I guess I mean as far as track goes. It did probably move NW almost 100 miles from a few days ago.

I don’t think you need to be concerned about anything yet. We basically have everything from over the Cape to a near whiff on the table, although I don’t think either of those solutions will verify. Early season, keep expectations low, and hope for a few inches of paste. I don’t think this is a double digit storm for anybody.

anyone who wants 2-4 or 3 -5 in the immediate metro away from any immediate coastal locations should hope for a weaker solution - the water temps are still too warm for an amped up solution which brings in that warmer air- we won't know for sure how this is going to play out until that Great Lakes low passes and HP moves into southeast Canada and if it is allowed to leave with the flow or stays put just long enough to provide cold enough air and keep the storm off the coast

I mistakenly loaded the Euro AI totals for the 360hr run, so I deleted it. Here are the 0z and 6z for just Tuesday.

Crazy how good Ai already is, imagine in a few years…

The models run too many times per day. Just run them at 00 and 12z and then nobody has to live and die by these stupid off hour runs.

20.8 was my low here in NW Hickory. .

Maybe we can do a 12/8/13 repeat.

Go back to when the Euro was a stud…the thing would hone in, and hold a solution and pretty much take it to the goal line most of the time. They changed something after that(supposedly improving it), and that was the end..it’s never been the same. And every upgrade since is worse and worse. They F’ed it up plain and simple. They tried to fix it, when it wasn’t broken. And that’s that.

The concerns and worries mount . Blows

The AI was a clean whiff for several runs. Like actually no precip or a few hundredths.

Is it ever not at 84h?

Dare I ask how they look for coastal Maine? Do they bring rain up there? Asking for a friend.

Notre Dame loses to A&M and Miami. They have zero quality wins. Ohio State has just one quality win. Texas. Vanderbilt has zero quality wins. Oklahoma has one quality win. Indiana has one quality win. The Big XII has no quality. The ACC has one quality win. Louisville beating Miami. Miami beating Notre Dame isn't quality at this point. If Notre Dame gets in and Texas doesn't, I wouldn't blame the SEC and Big Ten for leaving the NCAA.

Haven’t looked but I will.

When the euro is jumping around this much, it’s kind of ridiculous because it didn’t used to do that. it’s probably a perceptual bias, but it does seem that the models perform worse and worse. I think maybe it’s climate change to extent but maybe it’s just the large numbers of models coming out every couple of hours. In the old days of the 70s and 80s and even the 90s some extent they weren’t that many models so your perceptions wouldn’t change every 2 to 4 hours. Meteorologist would just look at the overall set up and whatever data they had and make their best guess forecast and refine it as it got closer. It seems to me will end up pretty much near the global model average from yesterday and today and then tomorrow the shorter range models can start to take over a bit

Dad and I watched it on tv back when it all happened. Damn I was really jonesing for snow because of it.

Just under an inch already at ORD, seems to be off to a good start.

Nice dusting here so far. Been snowing for over an hour. It was nice to get a good walk in while snow falls.

Euro AI ens have been consistently good for up here. Totally opposite of the AI “op”.

There was a day when the Euro would be locked/or locking in now….very sad it can’t hold a solution anymore.