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Unapologetically, it’s 100% cozy vibes for me, engendered by cheesy Xmas movies. The holiday just doesn’t seem real for me when we are torching during it.

I'm in that group.

Low of 5 this Morning and day 8 of continuous snow cover. Not a bad streak from 2.5 inches of snow.

I feel like while the climo argument does ring true, it’s a kind of a coping mechanism. One can’t deny that for the past few seasons, probably more, we have been AN for December. Climo or not we have been solidly BN this month and it is snowing 100’s of miles to our south. Objectively that is a fail. And it’s not complaining or canceling winter. It’s just a clear analysis of where we stand right now while weighing our BN canvas

Snow is serious biness, Right now, I'm enjoying the balls cold weather while many do not, But this really helps to maintain a pack when you get the ground to freeze up before getting the snow to insulate.

DCA low of 20F. No teens yet.

wouldn't be surprised to see 20:1+ in any good fgen banding with the saturday event

We finally have a very cold pattern with multiple chances....but if they don't produce, the knives are out even fiercer. This definitely proves it's all about the snow though....we've said it for years. 90% of the forum doesn't care if you are no longer in a torch regime or if you are -10 departures on the month if it isn't going to snow.

It doesn't help that the past 4 years have been below to insanely below average, getting porked in every possible way. And here we are again finding new ways to miss snow, so definitely a lot of angst in SNE for sure. I understand why meteorologically we are missing out, but never realized that for an area that averages 45-50 inches per year that we have to get lucky, just to hit average. I always assumed that it was the other way around, 2014/15 was luck....hopefully we snap out of it soon and we end up running the table the rest of the year, but the hangover from the past 4 years is hanging on and will be tough to snap out of

Per the quite fallible model consensus: The -WPO looks to easily be the strongest in Dec since 2013. Other strong -WPO (sub -1.00) Decembers: 2013, 2010, 2009, 2005, 1999, 1995, 1989, 1980, 1976, 1975, 1966, 1961, 1956, 1955, and 1954. So, Dec of 2025 has a good shot at making the top 20% strongest -WPOs. How was the subsequent Jan WPO for these 15? Negative WPO Jan: 2011, 1996, 1981, 1977, 1976, 1962, 1957, and 1956 (8 of the 15) Neutral WPO Jan: 2010, 2000, 1955 Positive WPO Jan: 2014, 2006, 1990, 1967 So, these strong -WPO Decembers were somewhat biased toward -WPO Jan with twice as many -WPO Jans as +WPO Jans The current model consensus *fwiw* suggests there a good chance we don’t end up with a -EPO for Dec as a whole with a lean toward fairly neutral averaged out. How often have there been strong -WPO Decs without a -EPO? - -EPO Dec: 2013, 2009, 2005, 1989, 1980, 1976, - neutral EPO Dec: 2010, 1995, 1966, 1956, 1955 - +EPO Dec: 1999, 1975, 1961, 1954 So, Dec EPO was pretty balanced for strong -WPO Decembers Monthly WPO: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data

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In my view, the 2"+ that I have is a bonus....I didn't expect anything yet. I bet most would feel the same had they not been focused on the southern mid atl.

Yeah its way too early to be cancelling anything. I mean what's climo right now...probably ranging from 2-5" and of course probably even under 2" closer towards the coast. Not having snow on the ground on Dec. 9 doesn't mean winter is cancelled or winter will be bad.

and fireworks

i can't make it sry

i believe in 2015 we were sitting outside, because it was too hot inside and the ac vents had all been closed for the winter....

Low of 16. The Bush River is frozen over.

Makes total sense...that's along the lines of what I was figuring you were getting at.

12z NAM 3km is showing a hell of a Northwest flow tomorrow night. Winds gusting over 40mph for most and temps in the mid 20’s. That’s a good recipe for snow showers to break containment and make it even into the valleys.

This. In previous years Canada was torching so even when we did get a decent H5 pattern the airmass still wasn't great. Looks like good cold air in Canada to tap into. Obviously all subject to change but it's not a close the blinds look at all. And for your yard and my yard when it's been a really cold pattern I don't have any ground truth snow cover to speak of. It's all been south of our area. It's been that way for the last few years really.

Fwiw, 12z ICON not interested in the Friday/Friday night idea... Saturday night is up in PA

12/5 - 3.1" 12/8 - 2.8" Total: 5.9" What a start to the season for the southern crew