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Given the proper set up it could have been a SECS, but alas the Pac did not allow it. At that time we did have a - AO and a -NAO. But the PNA was upgly.

8.8

VA loved the pattern in early December. The more I learn about this stuff the more I believe it's all just random luck lol

A simple trough progression brings winter right back to the conus. Winter is lurking and waiting to pounce. Of course if the trough digs in the west, winter won't be in east for a little while lol but there is nothing depressing about that plot in the big picture. Move the swath of zonal into Canada and we in some trouble. Serious trouble lol

yeah it's often warm and wet that week

Well said! One question I do have is there's been a lot of talk over the last several years of a fast flow. Not sure why we keep having that and why it's been such a major player for so long, but is there a chance that that will relax? Why are we having that fast flow happening over the last several winter seasons? Just trying to understand that part. Appreciate your insight as well

as long as its "cold enough" most of us older timers approve.

you're right. January 5th is the latest sunrise (~7:19 AM) then it gets earlier from there. Its like the 10th/11th when we start gaining by the minutes

Friday night And then Sunday morning believe at own risk lol

yeah if no snow please give me 55 degrees

I saw 10 in suburbia lititz on way into work.

With the exception of 2022, we always torch at Christmas time and it always rains on New Years Eve/day!

12z mesos coming in colder for tomorrow. Doesn’t really matter for Philly but for the LV/Poconos, one more tick colder and we could end up with a decent little surprise event.

I couldn’t agree more Don…I’ll take this and the good cold any day. Something will hit.

Actually after going through the last few winters...I would much rather than one shortwave every 10 days. There clearly is meteorological reasonings and physics involved as to why these fast flows with many shortwaves just don't pan out. I legit am starting to believe the mindset now of "rather having many shortwaves and hoping it pans out" is just a defensive mechanism to try and bring hope to something which just isn't there.

I had the times of the rises and sets, and I thought I remember seeing it was Jan 3rd or 4th…but the days are still shortening for anther couple weeks yet.

Happens every year around the 22 nd of December like clockwork. Not surprising really, although we have a stout - WPO there is too much Pac jet momentum. The Pac always rules as seen the past two weeks with a - AO and a - NAO and still nothing to show for it. I don't really care what folks say about climo as we had extreme cold air in Canada and a - AO and a - NAO, but in December you need a good PAC and a + PNA . We lost out because of the PNA.

HR93 on the 06z Euro puts light snow for everyone north of I-66 on Saturday? Would be a 1" - 3" event.

This has to be a sign of the apocalypse.

I think its even later than that actually...like closer to Jan 10?

Got curious as to when the last time we saw a very cold start to Dec for the sub as whole. Looks like 2010 is the closest.

Hopefully, we can get some deep cold between cutters…

I totally get the angst with...you know, North Carolina having measurable snow and much of the subforum failing in the early December chance, but this stuff is a little short sighted, even for me who reminder: canceled winter early January last year and that was still too optimistic lol. We really want to cash in on the pattern before whatever relaxation, I've said it's imperative. But even if we didn't if we got some random clipper to drop an inch or two on Dec 24 most would be happy and turn the page to tracking for 2026. You can only rely on it so much, but not having an absolute blowtorch or well defined Grinch showing up at range is a good thing. A really good thing. By Christmas Day, BDL's monthly and seasonal normal are 7.6"/9.7" respectively. At BDR they are 4.0"/5.0". We should hope for climo, and I think it can be done, as much of a torpedo pattern this is. I loathe the fast flow overall for SNE, but I'd rather have that with plenty of opportunities for something than tracking one shortwave every 10 days.

Not sure what's going on with this team. It's a lot of things. Team has no swagger like last year. They turned into a team that has about 4 predictable plays in their book. Hurts only looks for one guy on his reads and forces the ball too much. He played a little better the second half but those turnovers... The defense has been stellar. You'd think that would spark the offense. You're playing for the win. I was OK with the calls, but when you're that close to the end zone and you have time, you can draw up a run or two to slow it down. That play you had two receivers going to the same side. The guy defending Goddert dropped back and intercepted it. Anyway, unless a miracle happens this team is a quick exit out of the playoffs.

Low of 6.6 degrees this morning. I was hoping to eek out a few hours of sunshine this morning to help recharge my Tempest, but promptly at 9:00am the overcast moved back in again. (My Tempest is 5 years old and the battery is going. It uses solar to recharge. Thankfully it's just a back-up for my main Ambient station.) Temp already back up to 17.6, but with the overcast the speed of any warm up will be muted.