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Don't worry, it will consolidate into a blizzard in time for that fat, bald dude to do his obnoxious siren video, and collect another 5,236 followers.

Maybe. Depends how fast the precip comes in . Best chance is at the beginning especially if the euro is right.

Euro is doing an awful double low thing. It’s definitely effing it up. But it could also be real.

Looking at my records that go back to 2007, I had never even come close to getting double-digit snow in November, until this year.

Dual lows

+sn now as we're hanging onto good returns

Veterans Day likely had more flakes than any of us at/near the coast get on Tue. Probably just wall to wall rain.

18z euro is a hold, better than 12z

<<<<< DECEMBER NYC RECORDS 1869 to 2024 >>>>> _________ High max ___ high min _____ Low max ___ Low min ___________ Max prec ___ Max snow ___ Max 2d snow _ Dec 01 ___ 70 2006 __ 52 2001 ____ 18 1875 _____ 8 1875 __________ 1.72 1920 ___ 1.5 1880 __ 9.0 1882 ** Dec 02 ___ 66 1970 __ 52 1982 _____ 24 1876 _____11 1875 (27) _____2.16 1974 ___ 3.9 1929 __ 3.9 1929 * Dec 03 ___ 69 1998 __ 53 1998 _____ 23 1976 _____ 9 1976 __________1.63 1925 ___ 3.0 1903 __ 3.8 1903 Dec 04 ___ 74 1998^__ 59 1998 _____ 22 1889 ____ 10 1882 (34) ____ 1.84 1983 ___ 7.5 1957 __ 8.0 1957 Dec 05 ___ 70 2001 __ 56 1973,82 __ 22 1886 ____ 11 1926 (24) _____ 1.28 1993 ___ 8.0 2003 __ 8.0 2003 * Dec 06 ___ 71 2001 __ 58 2001 ______ 22 1926 ____13 1871, 1926_____ 1.60 1884 ___ 6.0 2003 __14.0 2003 Dec 07 ___ 75 1998 __ 54 2022^ ____ 26 1869 ____ 10 1926 (30) _____1.98 1908 ___2.0 1886 __ 6.0 2003 ** Dec 08 ___ 65 1927 __ 52 1951 ______ 19 1882 _____10 1882 __________ 1.54 1917 ___ 2.0 1928 __ 2.0 1928 Dec 09 ___ 66 1966 __ 54 1966 ______ 18 1902 ____ 7 1876 ___________2.54 2014 ___5.8 2005 __5.8 2005 * Dec 10 ___ 70 1946 __ 54 1946,66 ___ 16 1880 ____ 3 1876 (17) ______ 1.62 1878 ___ 1.4 2013 __ 5.8 2005 ** Dec 11 ___ 66 2021^__ 53 1887 ______ 20 1876 _____ 6 1880 (27) _____ 2.41 1992*___3.6 1960 __ 3.6 1960 * Dec 12 ___ 68 1931 __ 55 2015 ______ 20 1988 _____ 5 1988 ___________1.60 1983 ____11.6 1960 _15.2 1960 Dec 13 ___ 67 2015 __ 55 2015 ______ 20 1960 _____ 8 1960 __________3.03 1909^___8.0 1917 _11.6 1960 ** Dec 14 ___ 67 1881,2015_ 53 1901,2001,15_21 1902 ____12 1976 (31) _____2.22 1897 ____5.8 2003 __ 9.5 1917 Dec 15 ___ 68 2015 __ 53 2015 _______ 20 1874,1914_ 8 1874 _________1.34 1981 ____ 12.7 1916 __12.7 1916 * Dec 16 ___ 63 1971 __ 54 2021*_______ 19 1886 _____ 7 1876 (15 17th)_ 2.25 1974 ___6.8 1896 __12.7 1916 ** Dec 17 ___ 62 2000 _ 50 1888,2015 __ 15 1876 _____ 1 1919 (21) ______2.28 1888 ____6.7 1932 _ 10.5 2020^ Dec 18 ___ 63 1937,84 47 1996 _______ 11 1919 _____-1 1919 ___________2.21 2023* ___4.5 1887 __ 7.8 1932 Dec 19 __58 1899,1931 _ 45 1949,57,2017_ 16 1884 __-1 1884 __________1.19 1934 _____ 9.1 2009 __ 9.1 2009 * Dec 20 __ 60 1895,1999,2002_54 1957 __7 1884 __-4 1942 (8) _______1.92 1874 ____15.8 1948 __15.8 1948^ Dec 21 ___ 65 2013 __ 51 2013 ________ 9 1871 _______ -2 1871 _________ 2.49 1973 ___ 4.0 1884 __16.0 1948 Dec 22 ___ 71 2013 __ 61 2013 ________ 18 1989 _____ 4 1872 (28) _____ 2.18 1983 ___ 10.3 1959 __13.7 1959 Dec 23 ___ 66 1891,1990_57 1990 _____ 10 1883 _____-1 1883 __________ 1.83 2022^ __ 6.0 1963 __10.3 1959 ** Dec 24 ___ 72 2015 __ 63 2015 _______ 13 1872 _____ 6 1983 (22) _____ 1.42 2003 ___11.4 1912 __11.4 1912 Dec 25 ___ 66 2015^__57 2015 ________ 13 1983 _____-1 1980 (20) _____ 1.30 2002 __ 7.0 1909 __12.3 1883 (7.3+5.0) Dec 26 ___ 63 1936,82_ 50 1964 ______ 12 1872 _____ 3 1914 (15) ______ 2.36 1947 __ 26.1 1947 _ 26.1 1947 * Dec 27 ___ 63 1949 __ 57 1949 ________ 15 1872 _____ 6 1872 ___________ 1.39 1930 ___ 7.8 2010 _ 26.4 1947^ Dec 28 ___ 65 1982, 2008 __49 2024^ __17 1894 ____ 8 1917 (35) _____ 1.35 1926 ___ 6.6 1990 __ 7.8 2010 ** (7.2 1990) Dec 29 ___ 70 1984 __ 55 1984 ________ 8 1917 _____ -6 1917 ___________ 2.52 1901 ___ 4.0 1880 __ 6.6 1990** Dec 30 ___ 65 1984 __ 52 1948 ________ 2 1917 ____ -13 1917^ _________ 1.69 1912 __ 12.0 2000 __12.0 2000 * Dec 31 ___ 63 1965 __ 51 1965 _________ 6 1917 _____ -7 1917 ____________ 1.40 1948 ___4.0 1948 __12.0 2000 ** -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- NOTES: ... Temp values in brackets after low min show that day's max if it was not also the low max record. ... For 48h record snow values, which always run from previous date to current indicated date ... ... * indicates all precip fell same day, and ** indicates all fell previous day. The rest have some on both days. other notes: ^ 4th max 72 1982 ^ 7th high min 54F (2022) replaced 53F (1951, 1956) ^ 11th new record 66F 2021 broke 64F 1879. * 11th 2.35" 2008 (not record), 3.28" Dec 11-12 2008. ^ 13th 2.97" R 1941 ^ 16th-17th 2d snow 10.5" 2020 (6.5 + 4.0) * 16th 54F high min 2021 replaced 48F 1971 * 18th rainfall record replaced 1.30" 1876 ^ 19th-20th 2d snow 10.9" 2009 (9.1 + 1.8) also 10.0" 1874 20th ^ 23rd high precip 1.83" (2022) replaced 1.61" (1913) ^ note also 23rd new highest diurnal range at NYC (58, 8 = 50 range), replaced 48 from Mar 28, 1921 (82, 34). ^ 25th max 64 1889 ^ 26th 18.0" snow 1872, 12.2" 2012, (26-27 2d snow 2010 of 20.0") also 11.2" 1933 26th ^ 28th _ 49F high min (2023) replaced 47F 2008. xx 29th _ As the severe cold deepened in 1917, 2.0" snow was recorded on this date. ^ 30th min -6 1933 (max 12 29th, 16 30th)

NAM is usually over amped at this range but clear at this point this will be a N/W storm and well NW at that

Similiar to 12z but more precip

18z EURO bumping north a bit

18z GEFS more spread at 12z Tuesday but more consolidate by 18z Tuesday.

Yeah, but that stuff will be very light and gradually lift north as it moves east. The latest CAMs have about another inch falling here over the next four hours.

AI looks a tad slower and stronger vs 12z. Maybe similar track.

Hey, I'm nearly right smack in the middle of the lighter square in south central PA/MD border to the SW of #46. I'll take it.

Dry slot life in Naperville. Probably mostly done but a solid event. 6+

Just about 7.5” here in Lake Forest, some of the best dendrites all day right now.

And folks say you don’t have a heart

The 10 th does have real potential as you mentioned. Beyond that date things still look good for cold and snow potential.

Doesn’t the GFS have a warm bias? I feel like Will has mentioned that many many times over the years

look west (if it survives)…

It was . I have a feeling elevation will matter in this to a lesser degree

Not necessarily....it depends where it's located because a strong vortex located in the vicinity of James Bay is the coldest pattern there is.

I am in Fallston now, so probably better for Parkton than when I was in Monkton or Hunt Valley.