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I’m going to say 4-6” is probably ceiling with this. Maybe some 7-8” reports if things really fall right and depending on the angle of the ruler into the snow. But I will wear a Santa hat and do cartwheels if I can get 4-5” Dec 2

How much do you think for EWR?

I think 12/10 is the one to watch.

Central Illinois getting clobbered Mesoscale Discussion 2239 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Areas affected...parts of IL...southeast IA...and far northeast MO Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 291642Z - 292145Z SUMMARY...Primary bands of moderate to sporadic heavy snow should pivot from south-central across southeast Iowa, and persist across much of central into northern Illinois through this afternoon. Rates around 1 inch per hour should occasionally occur. DISCUSSION...Long-duration snowfall event will persist through the afternoon, shifting eastward to the northeast of a surface cyclone near the western Kansas City Metro Area. Ongoing heavy snow band across south-central IA should largely pivot across southeast IA and perhaps expand as the strongest mid-level DCVA shifts across eastern IA this afternoon. Farther east, the persistent low-level warm conveyor will maintain a broad swath of moderate snow across central to northern IL. While the bulk of the ascent should remain beneath the dendritic growth zone centered around 550 mb, strengthening mid-level DCVA should foster sporadic bursts of heavier snow. Snowfall rates within these regimes should occasionally reach 1 in/hr.

1"/hour snowfall rates here at home currently.

Weak sauce.

You're worse than I!

Rip a few chords!

WB 12Z RDPS still showing ice.

This COMPLETELY Screws the Entirety of there State of Rhode Island, still gets Tolland something, and is fantastic just north of the NH border, so I can guarantee This will be the solution.

Nice mini weenie band moving overhead right now.. doesn't look to last long but short lived 1 / Hr

I'm reminded of the December 2000 snowstorm. Different setup, but we had SSW, just like we do now.

About 3-3.5” so far. Cranking at .75-1” per hour

Weenie handbook rule #1: Go with the model showing the most snow! Got the final mow of the season in (more like final leaf mulch). Should it actually snow this year, the grass is nice and short so the lawn will quickly cave.

4.5-5" here. Steady moderate snow.

I'm liking the cold tendency (-AO tendency) this cold season. Something like 97-98 and 01-02 are the farthest thing from right now. Notice how the modeled 500mb maps have more cold than warm anomalies in the N. Hemisphere.. we haven't seen that in like 10 years. When I researched snowfall in Winter the N. Hemisphere negative 500mb (general) was the strongest thing preceding. I'm trepidacious about an above average snowfall Winter down here, but we do have a better pattern coming compared to the last 10 years imo. Anyway, good job on your analog outlook.

Or wait another month. The average high at BWI on Dec 2nd is 47 degrees

21.4" on the month at WXW2. Absolutely nuts to pass my entire season snowfall in CT last year in less than a month up there--in November. It just piles up, pennies and nickels.

I think so...which is why I wanted you to bet. I was very confident in a fast start to the month based on my analogs.

Confirmed. Midsize flakes but starting to stack

UKIE kind of meh but high end advisory snows

The +EPO and cold probably isn't going to happen like that.. it's going to be one or another. If the negative 500mb over Alaska holds in the next few days, models will probably trend warmer in the CONUS. CPC yesterday put out a cold 3-4 week forecast though, with above average precip

Looking at cloud mass movement it look like 9 hours until rapidly increasing clouds commence so 8-9 pm