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whichever way it goes this is an all-timer for the GFS, you’re going to hear “remember feb 2026?” at some point every winter the rest of your life

Absolutely correct regarding small storms....

Gefs is 12 plus for the city and NJ coast. Insane for a mean

Interesting comparison. Looking at RONI and ONI side by side over multiple decades can really help show how ocean temperature anomalies and atmospheric responses align or diverge. Sometimes the lag between ocean signals and atmospheric feedback tells a deeper story. Your trimonthly approach also makes trends easier to see beyond short term variability and noise.

Wow

I want one non-USA model to show the extreme amounts.

I’m not a mod; but I’m focusing on evolution of THIS storm; definitely really tired of the Nina bitching. We know our climo, don’t need a reminder every model cycle.

Rain/sleet mix in norton that seems to be freezing on contact. What’s the rest of the evening/ night look like for here. We salted lots and it seems to be holding for now but not sure if it’s gonna glaze up again soon?

Comment of the Thread.

Damn. Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

I blame the administration in DC.

Nick Gregory saying 8-12 for the city but also said if the trend continues he will have to increase amounts for the 10pm newscast

It tends to be more suppressed in general. Odd outputs sometimes. I remember with the Jan storm it kept spewing 3-4" totals over NYC and into my region too vs the 10"+ amounts we got.

I know this is your thread, but maybe keep the nina talk in banter? Just for storm mode (mods, if you disagree, feel free to remove my post)

Unfortunately there's been a general downward trend in the quality of AFD's. I think it's a combination of a lot of younger talent at BOX and organizational changes from above. In the past when a warning level storm was brewing, AFD's would come out more often as data rolled in. Now they only follow the schedule of 3 or 4 per day and sometimes the changes are very minor. It's sad, IMO, they used to be great reads in most cases, and very educational.

gotta spread awareness you don't want people scheduling stuff during a blizzard, it's going to be dangerous to be out and about!

The amount of QPF the nam and GFS are printing out are almost unbelievable. I would never discount a pretty reliable model but the rgem is an outlier at this point so I'm not sure how much stick we can put into it. I also find it to be dry generally headed into these big events.

12z through and beyond that timeframe was more but overall simialr but more in line with the eastward leaning quicker storm

Zero plows out in Greenfield tonight, streets are a mess.

It started here right about 3pm. I just checked and we are already at 3" new.

GEFS look good. Small improvement from 12z

Nasty rimed flakes with the occasional parachute. I’ll be pretty surprised if we touch 4’’.

UKMET not much different than 12z, maybe norther, rather than west/east changes. Low center is a tick W/NW and 986->981mb at hr57 but the precip isn't doing it for us.

Yeah but why does it feel like we can never get that in a nina though? Stuff seems to want to stay at the coast but not in it, lol Yes I'm being picky but ya know...

Worst by product of KU 2 is that now every winter the usual suspects will think it's normal and whine if we only get to normal by small storms.