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A ton of convection across Central Illinois the past couple of hours, with a lot of lightning and TSSN. There have been several associated pockets of subsidence out and about across the area, one of which has been hanging on around here for a while now. Sitting 5.6" here at home thus far, and sniffing an under-performer.

A pocket of yellow just popped over CR, which should help get me to 10". Large flakes are dumping.

I hear you, they're just not very useful at this time frame.

NAM and ICON get play because they come out first.

The NAM always amps, especially the 18z. Not saying it’s going to snow in the city proper or LI, but North Jersey, especially Sussex, is in the game in my opinion. The 500 map Forky posted days ago seemed to argue this could shred and exit stage right, not cut. But time will tell.

Turns out, GSO bottomed out at 20

Weeklies are cold through mid January. What a pattern projected

Why are we looking at the NAM at this point? JK, but serious

might not need to toss the EC yet, but shred that NAM depiction.

Its cold through Mid January

The wind just really picked up here..Didn't expect that

Would this stick to any paved surface?

Todays Weeklies have zero warmth in sight throughout the forecast period.

Doh! Knew i forgot something yesterday. Need to get stakes in tomorrow Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Good news is the EPS has been manhandling the GEFS for the early December period. GEFS has been caving to EPS when it gets to like D10-11-12. Hopefully that continues because EPS looks really good. Even popping western ridging week 2 where a more substantial system could develop in that look.

what's it showing up this way? 1-3"? tia

Euro Mean today,i still think you stick with the JMA right now

All of these H5 looks (not including the NAM which goes crazy deep and consolidated) are trending toward this partial phase with northern stream and the vort gets sheared and attenuates…this is turning this system pretty ugly from an organization standpoint. I’d like to see a trend back toward keeping the southern vort a little more independent longer at 00z tonight but I’m becoming skeptical we will see that.

I just measured 8.4 inches. The final batch of good snow is moving through now.

18z ICON looks like it tracks the SLP over the elbow into the GOM.

I got the snowblower ready to go, but completely forgot the driveway stakes

Euro/eps doing best with general pattern, but not sure about thermals. Could turn out to be flatter/weaker but warmer like gfs/nam.

Probably 9" or so with the best rates of the event underway. Think 12" is probably gonna be optimistic but we should beat 10"

Reggie comes out a little slower and ends up deeper at the surface, but otherwise stays pretty consistent with 12z.

Given how terribly did with the February threat...I'm not trusting it, lol