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Lock it in

34 here

Is the PDO weaker negative than last year at this time yes. But the La Niña is much better established this time around than last year, which was a late bloomer Niña…cooler Nino region SSTs, EWBs/enhanced trades started earlier this year, the eastern PAC (GOA, along the west coast of NA and down to Baja) is cooler and there is a very pronounced -PMM (very supportive of Nina) whereas last year we had a +PMM at this time. Also, much deeper and well established +SOI and a deeply negative AAM (Nina). Would love to see what the MEI is but that doesn’t update anymore @GaWx Edit: The deeply negative -IOD speaks for itself as far as being very supportive of La Niña/constructive interference

The Davis doesn’t really have a problem like that. Its built in radiation shield is very effective.

Since this 10/28/25 post, I got another 0.05” to give me a total of 2.80” of rainfall in October. That’s only modestly below normal. This area ended up 2F BN, coolest Oct since 2022 and second coolest Oct since 2011.

I post images on my blog and then copy and past as a work around to this forum's limitations.

We’ll see. Latest MJO forecasts: 1. GEFS, which has been doing much better than EPS as is often the case in this part of the diagram (10/20-3 GEFS runs had today in moderate 5/6 while EPS was a fail with inside circle): slowly headed to strong 6 in direction of strong 7 2. EPS: headed to moderate 7:

I will say, February 2008 was much higher amplitude in the MC, but not the case in the other months

Probably the best I've watched since the 1975 series. Nothing compares to that. But this one is right up there vying for #2 with a few others.

Unfortunately, it was just strong enough in the 5-7 phases last February to really pump the Southeast ridge and force the best snows up closer to Toronto. We got the classic weakening before 8 which has been common since February 2022. Even when we got the phase 8 in March 2023, it favored the higher elevations of the Northeast for the best snows.

Looks like the 12Z ICON would of had some snow next Sunday night

One year ago today the daily WCS PDO was ~-2.25. On 10/31/25, it was -1.29:

I look back at these sensor wind gusts... Just seemed to me much more power outages, normally associated with somewhat higher gusts. Need a study of wind gusts with soil moisture, leaf status, direction (east vs nw or w)

We had a high of 44F yesterday and start +2 lol.

Now, maybe the west warm pool changes that? We will have to see.

I'm glad that you clarified exactly what you were insinuating with these nebulous -IOD inferences. I am going to post my outlook either next weekend or more likely early the week of Nov 10th and will look into this a great deal since ENSO in and of itself is pretty clear. It seems like you are implying that this weak east-central based event will act like a Modoki event because of the -IOD? I don't have an issue with that in a vacuum, since other factors easily overwhelm the Modoki index when ENSO is weak, however, if you look back at 2008, which you have compared this -IOD event to on several occasions, that did not happen. And that event actual was Modoki. It made it to phase 7 in December, all the way around in January and even kissed phase 8 again briefly in February before hitting phase 8 again at high amplitude in March.

Some mountains blowing the snow this AM.

Yeah rain and temps in the forties and low '50s I consider cold. Worcester - 2.1 to start the month.

BWI: 21.0” DCA: 10.0” IAD: 16.7” RIC: 6.8” Tiebreaker: LYH: 11.2”

I have the same issue with my ambient. In the afternoon, the radiation shield has the suns shadow cast over it by the weather station itself. But in the early mornings and late afternoons, the sun is shining on the radiation shield head-on, so you see a temp spike.

Low of 29.5° at WXW1

December 1995 was pretty strong, too.

BWI: 13.1” DCA: 8.2” IAD: 12.8” RIC: 5.9” Tiebreaker SBY: 6.1”

Euro & GFS say keep an eye around the 10th? Both also brew up a beast for center part of country around the 17th.

34.2. Some colder spots near me dipped below 32. Second frost here