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2025-2026 ENSO
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Talking on the internet is an extension of yourself. I'd argue that it's actually more real because the reflection is staring right back at you. With time, you start to communicate better. I know my posting has changed a lot from when I was young to now.. I didn't know completely how it would be perceived back then. In face-to-face talk it's very spontaneous. -
Yes, it’s a fairly new station.
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Summer 2025 Medium/Long Range Discussion
MNstorms replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Dew points in recent years peak 80F+ in July in Minnesota. -
2025-2026 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
It's just easier to dehumanize someone when you don't look them in their eyes....you respond to a post and lose sight of the fact that there is a person on the other end of the the keyboard....samy dynamic with road rage....people dehumanize the other driver and flip. -
Another note: Someone other than the Chiefs is expected to win the AFC West in current betting odds. Cleveland is least likely off all teams to win their division, although the NO Saints have the worst SB odds at 400:1 An all-New York super bowl is 250:1, although New York has the most championships in sports of all cities by a pretty good amount Other than that, I'm always surprised how uniform it is year-to-year. Defenses vary more than the betting odds suggest.
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And if not for the foresight of installing those sensors in vulnerable areas, you guys may not have been able to respond as quickly as you did. Infrastructure matters.
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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
BarryStantonGBP replied to BarryStantonGBP's topic in Tropical Headquarters
cat5 imo is a realist -
I'm actually stoked for the Ravens defense this season. And Derrick Henry is still in his prime.. age starts becoming a bigger factor next year.. the time might realistically be weighted toward now. I still think our WR corps are a little weak, but that and maybe kicker are the only soft spots on the team. At least we don't have the Bills WR's, they are currently tied with Ravens for #1 betting Super bowl odds: 1:6.5. Edit: I see the Eagles are back tied with the Ravens and Bills for #1.. they had fallen to #3 a few weeks ago.
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2025-2026 ENSO
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I found that there was a clear N. Hemisphere SLP pattern, especially in the Atlantic, Apr-May before active vs inactive seasons. I posted about it here: We had a little bit of an opposite-tripole this year. -
Summer 2025 Medium/Long Range Discussion
TheClimateChanger replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Wow, that is insane! Is that an 83F dewpoint? Wtf? That is a wet bulb of 85F or 86F, not this WBGT meme, but bona fide wet bulb. A wet bulb of 95F (35C) is deadly if you are out in it for any extended period of time (even inactive and in the shade), maybe even somewhat cooler than that. Definitely take proper precautions in those conditions. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
psv88 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
83 today. Beautiful day! -
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winter_warlock started following July Banter 2025 and 2025-2026 ENSO
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2025-2026 ENSO
winter_warlock replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Im curious if the current Enso situation has anything to do with the lack of tropical activity thru July 19th -
2025-2026 ENSO
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
^Nice post. Pretty clear Atlantic-tripole there, with both phases considered. It's always fun to see whole patterns with good lead time. Also interesting the bullying of WPO and NAO as the both seem to correlate with warmer SSTAs near southern Asia. The lead SSTA's for Winter WPO I found peaks at +0.61 correlation just SE of India, Aug-Nov before Dec-March. Overall it's pretty high in the Indian Ocean late Summer-Fall before WPO-Winters. There is a +PDO in the Spring/early Summer to following Winter +WPO signal (and visa-versa) as well. -
Well at least the Ravens should make the playoffs which is more then I can say about the Orioles
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I'm sure Diddy uses it too but probably for other reasons lol
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The mismatch thing is just an excuse to say even though all periods should be warm, some will still be cold because the mechanisms driving the warmth are actually only moderately strong correlation rather than direct cause. It's a bit like people predicting the stock market who always forecast record highs and growth because you get geometric real returns of 7-8% over long periods, even though some years still finish with negative annual returns. If it was winter right now, the cold Tropical Atlantic, relatively warm Nino 1.2 v. cool Nino 4 would imply a neutral AMO and a Modoki la Nina with the -PDO. You'd see huge dumps of cold alternating between the Plains and West. The precipitation pattern on the Canadian at the equator in winter looks most similar to MJO five for the winter, with four somewhat close too. I generally use SST indicators as a guideline for predicting the major indices in winter. You can see huge areas of the Atlantic and Pacific predict WPO behavior in winter in the Summer - and favor the +WPO which also favors Western cold in both Fall (Oct-Nov) and Feb-Apr. WPO also tends to 'bully' the NAO primary phase into place to some extent.
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Right. The Models haven't been good depicting where the greatest likelihood of Storms will setup. Day before yesterday they had it over us, west to east. It ended up being further North along a London to Wise line with spreaded swath width about 50-75 miles North of that line. This Morning an area was further south than progged.
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It was incredible. Also have never seen rain like that here.
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July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
jm1220 replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Brief shower earlier, still nice sunset. -
July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability
WestBabylonWeather replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Ducks game was awesome. Perfect weather had a few seconds of spotty drizzle that’s about it -
0.71", 4.56" month, 28.55" ytd
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Just went gangbusters. That is one of the most vulnerable watersheds in Montgomery County. Terrain, loose soils and urbanization are tremendous stressors on that waterway.
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Impressive indeed, but am i reading/understanding that graph wrong ? Too much work must be frying my brain - Or too much alcohol after work , Is College Park semi arid...? Is this a new recording station ? 1976 to 2025 ?
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0.97” from the storm tonight, 8.13” for the month so far.