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It’s hard to trust any model that gives us snow… Even the euro

ECMWF LR pattern looks a lot better than the GFS as @ORH_wxman outlined yesterday. It shows low heights rotating through the Aluetians with +PNA ridge underneath:

I think WxRisks map is a bit bold.

Yeah that’s a weenie run of the EPS. But the op has been fairly consistent with the cooler/weaker solution. I’d be happy with first flakes (that I’m awake to witness), but something measurable would be quite nice.

Really ripping on Evanston. 8-10 is surely within reach.

i think this whiffs north and west folks to be honest! keeps trending south in the last 48 hours in my opinion!

Getting into the quality stuff now. Up to 3”. HRRR says 6” more before lake effect kicks in.

They are gonna be really bad near the isothermal mix line. But I think they will be fine over the interior and comfortably north of the 0C 925-850 zone.

I remember maybe about 15 years ago when I lived up in East longmeadow Mass, there was like a 3 to 4 nights where we had snow on and off. I loved every minute of it!

Its like false hope watching the greens trying to get into SE Michigan only to see them get shunted at the border.....

I think euro is the only model showing such a depiction. Either it will cave, or all the other models will cave to the euro. I think we will know with tonight’s 00z runs.

I just can’t with those clown maps.

Euro sure did

As of 1 pm CST, Chicago (3.2") and Rockford (3.2") had set new daily snowfall records for November 29. Chicago's old mark of 3.0" was set in 1942. Rockford's old record of 3.0" was set in 1925. Upstream, parts of Iowa had seen 12" of snow.

Just eyeballing but I'd say close to around 4" maybe 5-ish around the Loop

Scenes from near Sears Tower

80% chance for 1” in MBY!?

I'm in briefly. I checked. Here are the December composites (1980-2024) for EPO+/PNA+/AO-/NAO- 500 mb Height Anomalies: Temperature Anomalies: Precipitation Rate: n=121 dates I suspect that there's a lot of variability, though.

Dick Tolleris in agreement on a 7 yr, $500 deal with EMA Wx. $250 signing bonus and if gets all forecasts right.. $300 bonus.

Fwiw both aifs ensembles and EPS have been cleaning up with verification scores at 500mb over CONUS. Other models aren’t even coming close.

Outbursts are so common on a snow storm thread it's hard to see the sarcasm through the snow...

What are you looking for? Foot plus? Wait a week when we have pure Arctic Air antecedent days . There's your high end. This is a 6 to 8 for the best

If we ever get a real snowstorm, AI ensembles going to look like 12k NAM and RGEM had a baby