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I am liking the trends north and the trend towards more amped and organized that I was hoping for in my post last night. I am west of you in the valley, but have been enjoying your posts lately as someone that has skin in the game at my latitude. Please keep it up!

That's what I said when I saw it.

The complexity of not only this month but of the season is an understatement. We have the affects of the SSW from last month. La Nina state is collapsing. Another warming event looks likely this month. The MJO is right where we want it. The SOI and ONI are going to have significant effects down the road.

All of this is really good considering the NAM can also be biased towards the low end of QPF in the long range.

Looking at the 12k, I think we can toss the surface depiction. Play the loop quickly. Something is wrong - likely some sort of feedback issue. I thought it was picking up on some convective nuances with the splotchiness but it actually just looks like it spazzes out and glitches.

I’ll take it WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF I-88.

Hi Res GFS looks odd but shows the potential

12z Euro on a similar path. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Much more expansive on 3k geez. Just a hair, and I mean jusssst a hair more digging and we have a Murphy to Manteo 2-4” event.

18z gfs bringing down the hammer. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

NAM 3K looking good also. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

DAB+ here, 0.2” as of 6pm. Covers up the dirty snow at least.

Best Hi Res NAM run yet..

This map looks odd but is jumping on board for us. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

More coverage for sure! .

They marked me as a "Trained Spotter" in there PNS report instead of NWS Employee as well. I'll have a talk with a few of their mets because this is ridiculous.

Aleet aleet!

Hi Res NAM is pretty nice for the mountains

HRRR and similar CAM's are literally the one thing we do better than the Europeans.

Class Action Park. Awesome Documentary. .

Surface depiction for the NAM is very similar to 18z, but again, it’s another model that looks improved under the hood. The ridge out west keeps trending taller, helping the shortwave drop a bit further before it scoots east.

3k NAM is going to make a significant jump north based on the confluence at hour 30. That said, it was a southern outlier at the 18z run but should help @Ephesians2 out

Huntsville