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Not going great, but a little early to give up on it. I would at least wait until Monday morning. Unless you are referring to something else...

6” mean on the EPS for MBY!?!

Enjoying this weenie band

I like how you changed the arc of your line just in time to keep it just north of stephens city. Lol

Just crossed 5”. Still stacking, so 8” should be within reach. Pure bliss outside.

The whole thing has gone to crap.

Yeah we just drove to Evanston. I think 8-10 is a good bet with the long duration of the event. We’ll be having dinner in town Monday night for my birthday with maybe 1-3 inches expected from the next system.

Totally agree with the threats. That’s all we can ask for, and last year while it sticks in our memory has no real bearing on what’ll happen this season. I’m cautious on snow amounts to begin with in my first calls but I still think it’s a light to moderate event for most of CT. Either way, we quickly turn the page to the Arctic hounds Friday and a possible system next weekend.

7 inches on the nose here as of about 1:45. Flake size has increased with these little enhanced blobs moving overhead from time to time.

You are gonna have to be N of 287 to even sniff accumulating snow w/this one

i would guess at this time it's yonkers and north for accumulating snow, possibly even northern Bronx may get on some action if it falls during the night as the storm intensifies and pulls out

Tuesday Snow, mainly after 10am. High near 32. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. North wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

House is decorated inside and out. Snowboard in the yard. Just need snow.

Welcome!

European ensemble snow greater than 1 inch probability has increased a bit at 12z with the 50% line down to Philly

The way to a cold rain

European ensemble snow greater than 1 inch probability has increased a bit at 12z with the 50% line down to Philly

Averaging 5.75" here just north of ORD... if the HRRR is to be trusted there's another ~7" or so left to come from now onwards

Tough to fight EPS AI GEFS AI EPS but you can always go higher as solutions appear.

These seem to be the 2 potential windows to watch via recent guidance- I still like the 10-11th, but the 6th is starting to look intriguing, with some potential for significant southern energy to eject northeastward from the SW, and a nice NA look. A lot of NS energy associated with the TPV lobe though as advertised, and we know how that goes with timing(phasing vs crushing).

METAR KORD 291951Z 13011KT 1/4SM R10L/2600V3000FT +SN FZFG VV007 M02/M03 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP205 SNINCR 1/5 P0005 T10221033 $

This is the way

Will the new AI influence those low snow casts?

No doubt about last year underperforming we ended up getting like 5-10” in 2 week from the 18-24” mean that we had. But this does mean that the threats are there. Im leaning white rain to rain up to I-84 / coating to 2” 84 corridor / 2-5” highest hills NW for now.

In Mequon and it's mod-heavy snow with decent sized dendrites. Definitely getting heavier and windier.