All Activity

I think the green really does look great in the snow. run

Should we mention CO2 again?

Just today the CFS and GEFS weeklies join the colder forecast for December. ECMWF weekly had been consistent which added confidence even before others joined the chorus. Agree it will take about a week (2nd or 3rd front) to chip away at the SER that builds next week through early Thanksgiving week. CFS and extrapolating mid-range ensembles points to right after Thanksgiving. Same for some AI stuff. GEFS and ECMWF weeklies are slower more like 1 Dec. While the MJO promotes the slower timing, a Strato warming event could promote the faster timing. SSW is normally the slower process but it's already in progress. MJO has to tee up the warmer phases first. Physical Science Lab Asia pressure and temps has not really set up yet, no surprise with the MJO. North America has a ways to go. Eastern Siberia shows very early signs. Rest of Russia and China no signal (bearish or bullish) so overall those charts are not set up yet. PS @Carvers Gapyou'd prolly love this site given your post about pressure / temps on the winter spec. PSL Map Room: Global Circulation (Quick Menu): NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

Wonder if we’ll ever see that. Game uniforms should be a darker Bahama Blues since that is what we get now.

33.3 imby/Columbia Friday morning

15 below in 1934 for the city 6 below in 1933.. minus 1 minus 3 in the 1930's early 1940's 8 below 4 below..

It’s extremely difficult getting 2 days in a row of sunshine near the mountains. I’m becoming envious of locations further south and east. They even get more snow now lol.

It's bad luck I agree, JFK on the ocean had TWO events over 4 inches in February 2024, one of them over 6 inches.

I feel like the unis would look amazing in a legit snow game. There’s something arctic looking about them with the white and slate blue/grey.

More clouds than I expected.

After 30+ years living in this region, that's really the ticket to enjoying winter in these parts

LOL, it's been in the 60's up here in the Estes Valley all week. Frankly, I am not complaining yet as I have a suspicion that that winter will come on strong in December.

Typical LN cool season pattern with more dominant subtropical ridging influence over the southern plains states. Hopefully, it'll back off more by Thanksgiving (more troughing coming back into the picture).

That to me looks like a pattern more conducive to overrunning, as any major phasing attempt(s) is likely to be sheared out by a compressed field.

I predicted slightly above normal snowfall this year

The monthly snowfall composites back that up

The weighted analog mean produces the follow snowfall predictions BWI: 18.1" IAD: 18.3" DCA: 14" December and January average below normal temps. February much above normal. My current snowfall forecast is slightly above this but I simply added a small bump for the "we're due" index. We've been pretty unlucky lately, maybe we get one good hit and this is that rare nina that ends up slightly above normal snowfall. They do happen once in a while and we are due for one. But for what it's worth the composite mean beat my "gut" adjustments 3 of the last 4 years. So... My call BWI: 20" IAD: 23" DCA: 15"

Expect the same, Some snow showers going on now here.

0-1 for my hood.

I have roses, daisies, pansies and Lilly’s still budding. Lawn is still lush green. Being at a local max altitude in downtown — my thinking is —this makes for a very specific phenomenon, as the rad cold sinks down the hill to the Cocheco River adjacent and to the heart of down town below. If we can avoid good radiational conditions over the week, could be around through thanksgiving.

The Pats kicking ass is a good augury for winter. We had a lot of great winters during their dynastic period and winters have sucked since Tom left. Some day the Pats’ win record may go hand in hand with beehive height and squirrel obesity as great winter predictors.

The good news is that GEFS/GEPS have kind of been destroying the EPS the last 4-6 winters for the most part with the post D10 evolutions involving the pattern due to them seeming to handle PAC issues better. Both of those show markedly faster transitions for those in the E in late Nov than the EPS which is going much more -PNA and SE ridge.

Yea thats a little weird.

Models are squabbling and marginal temps. Unless the Euro and GFS get some resemblance, we might still be seeing absurd ranges this time tomorrow.