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Lovely. Not nearly as snowy here, but I already feel like this might be a winter to remember for me now that I'm at some elevation for the first time.

I was right on that first flakes call and maybe I can go 2/2 by saying I do think that it'll be the first week of December that we get some sort of advisory level snowfall for interior SNE. I continue to like the pattern progression. Even though our last few winters have been absolute disasters we've done alright in the first half of December. It's not necessarily that we start slow, it's that we go into epic voids of activity as soon as we get on the board. 1.7" on 12/5/24 4.1" on 12/11/22 1.7" on 12/8/21 2.0" on 12/5/20 (followed up by the KU on 12/16-17) 8.6" on 12/1-3/19 2.8" on 12/11/19

As of 5.33pm PST, we are now seeing very WET snow falling at both Woolly Cam and at the Main Lodge. It's 38 degrees, ground is soaked, stickage is extremely unlikely. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam At Woolly you can make out rain impacting the pavement so what this may well be is a snow/rain mix. At any rate temps are far above freezing. What a waste of 5 inches of water. You can see hydrometeor impacts in water puddles on the Main Lodge grounds too. This is probably a moderate to heavy extremely wet snow and plain rain mix, in an upper 30s temperature environment in the presence of extremely wet soaked mud, mud that is well above freezing which shall rule out any stickage whatsoever. It probably won't cave until next week's colder storm. It's a real severe punch right in the gut, to realize that Mammoth at 9000 feet can get Washington DC'd, too. At least Mc Coy Station at 9,630 feet is seeing some accumulation on the grounds. Damn.

Did he say El Nino is fading?

Attack ? No attack bruh . Have at a snowy winter . Hope you win . To me better than last year but not by much

I'll take a late November/early December-EPO/+PNA regime now showing up on the ensembles any day. I expect some crazy swings in the deterministic guidance the next 7 to 10 days. Patience grasshoppers.

Why the attack? Was just saying it starts mid Dec every year. You are losing it.

Yeah pretty classic -EPO showing up for the last few days of the month Models at that range did just completely lose a sustained -NAO, so let's see if it hold when we get closer... but it does match weak-negative ENSO/strong -QBO analogs for late Nov/early Dec

You miss that know it all. You should have taken that individual for a long ride in your truck an dropped it off as unclaimed freight

Fort Collins up to 75.1 I wish I could turn on the weather magnets and get you guys some rain and snow. My place in Ohio had more snow than Estes Park this week. It wasn't much.

Still waiting for my first Snow Squall Warning. I'm surprised how many offices in the Midwest haven't issued one.

When was my winter idea last wrong? You go big snow every year . Waiting for the snowy poem

Lol every year

^yeah, GEFS and EPS both have a strong +PNA/-EPO developing around Thanksgiving with our -NAO fading away. My instinct is that the PNA+EPO ridging is more useful for our early season snow chances since it’s a more effective cold air delivery mechanism and we need more anomalous BN temps in early December to snow.

+PNA pattern trying to build at 384hr on the 18z GEFS. As PSUhoffman posted, we can get snow from this pattern. Let's see if it develops and holds as we get closer

Think it was 17-18. Terrible waist of cold.

Yeah, hopefully they are overemphasizing it. Could also be the SSW starting to affect the Models. If so, some back and forth and wonky solutions to come as we know.

Just checked. Nope, not December 2020. Though this current projected cold looks remarkably similar in its progression. I am looking for the year where an epic December(way better than what weeklies have now) delayed by about three weeks. It might be that late December/early January cold snap where it didn't snow much - 17 or 18'? I remember sitting in a movie theater and seeing the Weeklies flip warm. I know...get a life right? I had been banging the cold drum for weeks, and it was like someone turned the lights off! LOL. Seems like it has been 7-10 years since that time. I can remember really two places where I connect weather models going nuts(good and bad) and a specific location. The other one(besides the movie theater) is in Hampton. We had been back in the boondocks with no cell service. When we got to the hill overlooking Hampton, I got several texts from @tnweathernutw/ snowmaggedon maps that originally included us. To this day, I hate missing a 12z suite because of that. Those maps were flat out nuts. DC got most of our snow, but the model runs for a few days were epic.

Exactly. That's my main concern and it's incredibly hard to get rid of

I honestly don't use the MJO much in November and early December. I wonder if modeling is over-emphasizing it. Either way, a delay would probably all for the cold to last into early January - good recipe! I will say that I track an "eastern" cold shot only to have it dump West...and then come eastward around Christmas. It was delayed by about three weeks. I need to check the thread, but that might be the Christmas Eve anafront year.

It just keeps coming…

Start looking for a house/property E or W of downtown. They ruined 77 north of town (took 3 free lanes to two free, two toll and the free are packed stop/go 24/7, although if you wish to pay to drive I think they average 50 cars a day on the tolled lanes) and about to start the same on 77 south of downtown starting next year (so construction), just a FYI.

That’s half a winter month and we only have 3. It better not be that late. I’m actually optimistic for a wild December before Jan furnace

Mountain folks getting buried by snow, meanwhile I'm still playing golf tournaments and wishing the season wouldn't end.

DCA: 12" BWI: 18" IAD: 19" RIC: 8" SBY: 8" MSY: T