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They've bumped us up slightly

I said a few days ago anything under 3" would prompt a melt, and that's still where I'm at.

This winter season reminds me of 1999-2000.

No politics.

Back edging a storm with its precip shield 100s of miles to our West is PEAK AMWX content thank you.

Some temperatures in the Catskills already in the teens. Great radiational cooling night before clouds move in.

ORH is 30/5 right now....you wouldn't think low levels would be a problem less than 18 hours from now with that type of dewpoint look....while ORH might be ok, not too far away won't be. Not the same setup, but that kind of turnaround reminds me of the 1/27-28/94 storm. @Typhoon Tipalways talks about that one....we started the night before around 0F and predawn of the storm was like 8F with snow grains and by late evening, we were 50F+ with steaming snow banks.

25.2, Free fall continues

lol the back edge already showing up. I bet we don’t see much actual pure rain

Yep NW flow. Mountains could get some clipper snow but cold and windy for most

I am down to 29 but will probably be above freezing by midnight if clouds move in.

Yay, lets get the puddles up to my dong.

It means the world to me

Speaking of colder, down to 26 in Westfield already. I didn't expect it to cool so rapidly this evening

You could be getting in on some of the milder air aloft. I noticed in my area temps above 2000 ft are in the upper 30's while in the lower Valley it's lower 30's. Too bad the Jet is to our NW. We're getting that milder air pulled up from the South aloft. Very warm in the deep South East.

Hey be happy to get snow bruh . I’d kill for an inch

not that it means much but the 21z SREFS just bumped up qpf by a good amount ..

Well not all systems are gonna have the marginal thermal profiles that we see tomorrow...no guarantees, but the larger scale layout for next week looks a lot colder. We have climo working in our favor too as we go deeper into December. Originally, we weren't expecting anything for 12/2 (we kept saying it looks better after about 12/3ish), but then this system kind of snuck into a colder airmass about a week ago on guidance...so we were hoping to score a bonus event early.

I had to do a Final map last night, but if I were doing it tonight, I would be going 2-5" here instead of 4-8".

it's easy for those of us who live several tens or hundreds of feet above sea level to say this sort of stuff, but doing so is denialism with respect to the real flooding that already occurs in Miami neighborhoods (and other sea level locations around the world), flooding that has increased in extent, frequency and intensity over the years, even during fair weather. and let's not forget that Miami is underlain by porous limestone - the ocean will come in underneath any wall that is built. while rich people can afford to move to higher ground and/or hire companies to raise their ground, that isn't affordable for 90% of the people from the perspective of the person who lives in that house in that neighborhood in the Miami suburbs dealing with increasing frequency and intensity of flooding at their house and neighborhood, my post doesn't seem "alarmist" or "absurdly-hyperbolic" or "ludicrous" at all. It's real. What do they think? How much of their neighborhood needs to be impacted before they consider their property to be affected ? How much of the population / land area of the city needs to be impacted before there is acknowledgement the health of the city is being threatened ? is it 90% ? 75% ? 50% ? And Miami is only one city; there are dozens of low-lying coastal cities across our country and world that are going to see major impacts as coastlines advance to bring this back to the point of the discussion: how much of Miami needs to be inconvenienced/undesirable/uninhabitable before we acknowledge that the cost of climate change is a factor in the cost of a watt of fossil fuel derived power ?

And NOP.....the gradient is always destined to set up like 5 mi to my north in SE NH....time and time again. Never fails. Porked again. Now the next event will be a CJ.

My one and only obs just for the hell of it. 29/23 at 730 Wont be a single flake or sleet pellet here by the time precip starts. On the plus side, might see an inch of rain! Good luck to the NW folks at elevation. An inch or 2 would be a win with this setup imo. Not bad for the very beginning of Dec, esp lately..

18z EPS was also a step in the right direction, even for the York & northern Lanco crew.

Temp drop ended. Back up to 34. 33 and rain is bad enough but 34 and rain will suck the balls of a 350lb dude 2 hours after he ate 5 alarm chili with beans in summer

Don’t see any progression of warmth north . Instead a steady progression of dongs across faces south of pike