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What are your thoughts here ? ( bolded part ) Tomer Burg @burgwx With the addition of the AIFS ensemble, I've also added plots comparing the EPS to the AIFS ensemble: https://polarwx.com/models/?model=comparison Some major differences emerge between them heading into the 2nd week of December, with the EPS colder than the AIFS in the eastern US: Differences between the EPS & AIFS ensembles are largest over Alaska, with the EPS showing a deep cutoff low over AK reinforcing western US ridging. The AIFS ensemble does not explicitly show such a strong cutoff low, but also has larger spread in 500mb heights than the EPS.

In @canderson Heat Island of downtown Harrisburg, I’ve heard him claim snow is not sticking, even though 99% of roads in the area have caved, lol!

I think the coast stays all rain but maybe some flakes.

When the forecast low is 27 ?

Lol no but warm ass asphalt is

Previous hour... METAR KORD 292051Z 13013G21KT 1/4SM R10L/2200V2600FT +SN FZFG VV006 M02/M03 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP190 SNINCR 1/6 P0008 60020 T10221033 56049 $

Models are confused right now to say the least - expect further changes in future runs ...........

I think you are looking good for at least a light-moderate event in the city within the next 2 weeks.

We seem to be losing these consolidated solutions right now and getting waves of LP along the front.

Not much different than 12z so least no north shift let’s see what 0z holds.

That's great to hear. The difference at day 12-15 between the GEFS and EPS is pretty significant. EPS is actually starting to get the look of its own weeklies forecast from a few weeks ago.

KCMI just reported its third straight hour with 0.25/mile visibility. Absolutely ripping right now. Stay blessed friends

Head fake?

I’m thinking the 10th with a few mangled flakes prior to

Slightly further south but 2 lows. One of the lows is fake.

Pretty much. His map is how I think this one will play out. A classic N and W special. Us city folks gotta wait a little longer. Hopefully the 6th or 10th comes thru.

It’s done that on a few cycles, It could be real as well.

Not much different on the 18z gfs

18z GFS Dual lows…

Gfs is further south

Hahahaha

man fuck the GFS

yep, you're in the game. some of those totals include sunday night / monday. Jack on the RGEM is like 8-10" in the Taconics. Been a while since they've had a nice early season dump.

We look but don’t take serious

This is concerning considering the Euro’s result