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Just for fun I looked at my 27 winters of snow vis-a-vis ENSO, using the categories I've seen on here. Current average is 88.5". EL NINO Very strong (1): 48.2" 2015-16, my lowest winter Strong (none): n/a Moderate (3): 77.2" 1 AN 99.0"/64.8" Weak (4): 96.0" 3 AN 109.2"/85.1" LA NADA (7): 86.3" 4 AN 112.8"/52.8" LA NINA Weak (4): 109.0" 3 AN 137.1"/68.0" Moderate (8): 85.7" 3 AN 142.3"/52.5" Includes top winter and 2nd worst. Strong (none): n/a Very strong: None noted, 1950-51 on. Probably means little or nothing.

On all models its already starting

NAO index daily correlation is a much more accurate indicator than the monthlies I see everyone compare That catches transitional NAO . Those temporary blocks always occur during our long lasting very slow moving Nor'easters. Claiming the correlation is voodoo is unscientific

Let's hope

At least that little low that pops up for a bit is moving across extremecl northern Georgia which usually helps us

When this pops Dec rocks

You know your shit and bring a lot to the table in terms of ENSO discussions but dude….. watch it. I don’t like that you are post limited because you actually know what you are talking about, but maybe if you actually tried not being a raging d*ckhead for once in your fucking life things would be better for you here. You are 100% right about misinfo/wishcasters like JB. You aren’t going to actually win in your crusade against these people by being insufferable, you need actual people skills. You want to just call me an idiot and ignore this? Fine, go ahead. I can’t stop you from doing that, I said what needed to be said. Now it’s up to you to decide what you want to do.

yeah satellite looks awful (though I guess there may be some thinning/decrease). Probably be similar to last night in the cloud category. Figures this one would be weaker. Oh well...can go to bed early

Not as strong as yesterday…G2/G3. Clouds are a problem again too.

Excuse me sir, but this is the New England forum.

Update…thanks everyone, but it just died. It must’ve had some bad lower internal injuries. I had it in a box for a few hours and it didn’t pee or poop once. I put it back out into the woods to reenter the circle of life.

WB latest EPS for 30 day period starting with Thanksgiving. Looks a lot better than most recent years.

Today's 8-14 analog package from CPC... 19611207 20001106 20001111 19521122 19831124 19671210 20041119 19981106 19711115 19691110 The one that really stands out is the 83-84 winter due to the cold which came early during that winter. It was just brutal. I remember riding to town in our Toyota, and the windows froze up on the inside! @John1122will have to fill in the blanks for the 1960s. Generally, if I see winters from the 1960s showing up...those are gonna have some decent analogs(not all). We may have some others with knowledge of those winters as well. Keep in mind, these analogs are centered-on a warm time frame. So, let's see where these go as we get deeper into winter, and see if we see a particular analog which survives from week to week. I like to look at analogs during forecasted warm-ups. If they turn cold later on, that may tell us something.

Climate factoid of the day. Someone posted last week that it seems like it never snows before Christmas here in Chester County. So, I went back and looked to see how often we have not recorded any measurable snow by Christmas Day. The data shows we actually have seen measurable snow 92% of the time before Christmas. There have only been 11 years across 132 years of record that no station in the county recorded measurable (more than a trace) of snow. Those years were 1899 / 1918/ 1956 / 1965 / 1974 / 1991 / 1999 / 2001 / 2006 / 2015 and 2021.

Climate factoid of the day. Someone posted last week that it seems like it never snows before Christmas here in Chester County. So, I went back and looked to see how often we have not recorded any measurable snow by Christmas Day. The data shows we actually have seen measurable snow 92% of the time before Christmas. There have only been 11 years across 132 years of record that no station in the county recorded measurable (more than a trace) of snow. Those years were 1899 / 1918/ 1956 / 1965 / 1974 / 1991 / 1999 / 2001 / 2006 / 2015 and 2021.

If you can get the NH version of North Woods Law (much more numerous than the Maine ones), every 2-3 episodes you would probably see a warden/rehab contact. Almost all have a happy ending, though one cannot know which contacts get onto the show. The NH Warden Service could likely point you to rehabber locations. A Trace is just snow falling and either melting on contact or less than anything measurable. So yes, you had that, but nothing measurable yet. I've had up to 0.3" of wispy snow that melted out to less than 0.005", thus a trace. Not common and it looks odd, but I've not found a better way to report. Edit: Moved the snowblower out of the shed and set out the snow stake. Hope that doesn't scare off Sunday's event.

Sauteed and simmered, The flavor can't be beat.

We're going full pleistocene baby! Apologies to northern Michigan though.

I just saw it. Right you are and by a good margin!! Mean minimum down to ~0:

Wow indeed 82 percent now!!! This is from Allan Huffman on Twitter he says: Today's 12z op ECMWF and EPS mean both show the 10mb U wind turning negative, meaning a change to an easterly wind direction over the polar regions and an #SSWE with 41 of 50 EPS members (82%) showing this reversal with 11/25 the day with the most negative members. Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events, can weaken the tropospheric polar vortex, allowing for increased high latitude blocking (-AO) and the enhanced risk for arctic air discharge into the mid-latitudes (North America, Europe, East Asia). A late November SSWE is relatively rare, and COULD help favor a cold start to meteorological winter(December). The last November SSWE was in 1968.

That map is Celsius!

Yeah the motto is if the Bz doesn't flip you won't see shit.

Lol…he’s in the reverse psychology phase now. As soon as the first big snow threat comes, he will morph into positive and gung-Ho Kevin.

Thanks. But to his credit, he backs it up well! Some on the other side don’t back it up as well. As far as myself, I clearly prefer cold and root for it. However, I do my best to post as objectively as possible and not let my preferences affect my posts. So, whereas I enjoy posting about cold, if I see a model that looks warm I won’t be afraid to post it to protect my objectivity. I post whatever I see, cold, warm, neither, etc.